NASCAR Cup Series 2020 Championship Odds
By Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
In just over a month, NASCAR’s Cup Series will fire the engines for the first time at Daytona Speedweeks signaling the start of the 2020 season. In anticipation for the upcoming racing season, sportsbooks have officially begun releasing 2020 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds for the first time. After a record setting year in 2019 with over 140 units of profit, it is exciting to see odds for the first time for 2020 which means we will be grinding out profits again soon. In the meantime, I wanted to unveil an early look at the 2020 championship odds and discuss a few thoughts for those bettors who may be considering any early future style championship bets.
Those that are familiar with my betting philosophy like already know that I am not a big fan of placing bets towards preseason championship odds. Rarely do you find “value” in future odds for legitimate championship contenders. Since the implementation of the chase format in NASCAR’s playoffs in 2004, every championship driver has posted a minimum of 3 wins in every season. In fact, 3 wins may be considered subpar for championship campaigns. In the 16 championship seasons in the new era of the chase format, 14 of the 16 champions have scored at least 5 wins during their trophy seasons. Only Kurt Busch (2004) and Joey Logano (2018) have scored less with 3 wins each during their championship runs.
The reason I am pointing out these important facts is because there have been no true “surprise” champions when you evaluate those performances over the course of the entire season. Ryan Newman’s winless runner-up finish in 2014 behind Kevin Harvick was the closest the Cup Series has come towards crowning a true underdog champion in the playoff’s era. As a result, there is less likelihood of finding true value in championship odds because history tells us that the drivers battling for a championship in November will be among the upper echelon of the Cup Series ranks which are bound by less appealing odds.
| Cup Series | 2020 Championship Odds |
|---|
| Kevin Harvick | +550 |
| Martin Truex Jr | +660 |
| Kyle Busch | +660 |
| Denny Hamlin | +880 |
| Kyle Larson | +1100 |
| Joey Logano | +1100 |
| Chase Elliott | +1320 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1320 |
| Ryan Blaney | +2200 |
| William Byron | +2200 |
| Erik Jones | +2200 |
| Alex Bowman | +4400 |
| Kurt Busch | +4400 |
| Clint Bowyer | +4400 |
| Aric Almirola | +4400 |
| M. DiBenedetto | +4400 |
| Jimmie Johnson | +4400 |
| Cole Custer | +8800 |
| Christopher Bell | +8800 |
| Ryan Newman | +11000 |
| Austin Dillon | +33000 |
| Chris Buescher | +33000 |
| Tyler Reddick | +33000 |
| Ricky Stenhouse | +110000 |
| Corey LaJoie | +110000 |
| Quinn Houff | +110000 |
| Ty Dillon | +550000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +550000 |
| Ryan Preece | +550000 |
| M. McDowell | +550000 |
| John Hunter | +550000 |
When I look over the championship odds listed above, I believe they are listed rather conservatively. Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex, and Kyle Busch have been the heavy hitters in the Cup Series over the last 3 seasons with 51 combined victories. The “Big 3” are rightfully listed as favorites at less than 7-1 odds. Deciding between the 3 of those choices would be a toss-up before the season begins. Meanwhile, guys like Hamlin, Keselowski, Logano, Larson, and Elliott seem like potential championship contenders at somewhat better value. With the exception of Hamlin, the problem with the majority of those candidates is that they all have been limited by manufacturer/team performance over the last few seasons which continue to trail the Joe Gibbs Racing stable.
For the rest of the candidates, it becomes a bigger guessing game. In each new season of racing, we see teams progress and others regress in terms of performance. It’s impossible to know for sure which teams will take a step back or forward. If the new 2020 Chevrolet Camaro improves the performance of the Chevy teams as many hope, you have to believe guys like Chase Elliott (+1320) and Kurt Busch (+4400) would provide value. I would throw Larson into that group but his 11-1 odds are likely overvalued even if we speculate improvement by the Chevy teams.
To be completely honest, I believe several drivers are extremely overvalued. I cannot fathom the realistic probability where Ryan Blaney, William Byron, and Erik Jones should be listed at just 22-1 in terms of the championship. If any of those drivers won the title, it would be the biggest upset of the chase era judging by their current win ratios. I wish I had a few drivers that I could mention as potential longshots like I do each week in my race predictions. However, this is not a one shot race for the win scenario that could be propelled by strategy or circumstances. To win a championship under the current format, drivers have to win races and stages to collect bonus points. Therefore, I do not foresee any formidable long shot options for the championship.
Don’t let my pessimism for early future bets or lack of confidence towards underdog championship contenders dissuade anyone from early championship bets. I actually enjoy betting championship odds in more of an investment style strategy. Instead of picking 2-3 future bets and riding those picks out for the entire season, I like to adjust my championship predictions on a more frequent basis. Over the last several years, I have routinely placed $25 bets every 1-2 weeks on my top 4-5 drivers for the championship. I like this strategy because it builds up cumulative totals throughout the season on the amount wagers/potential reward. Additionally, it allows bettors to routinely evaluate performance including drivers that may be gaining momentum. Odds will change throughout the year meaning we may be able to find more value or simply make sharper choices as the year progresses. The reason I like this style is because it is small bets throughout the year they could provide a decent end of year bonus if things pan out. So whatever you decide, I hope it ends up producing a winning ticket!
