2019 Ford Ecoboost 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday November 17th, 3:28PM (EST) at Homestead-Miami Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

NASCAR’s 2019 season will officially come to a close on Sunday following the running of the Ford Ecoboost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Over the last two days, we have witnessed Matt Crafton earn the Gander Outdoors Truck Series Championship and Tyler Reddick scored his 2nd straight Xfinity Series title earlier today. Now just 400 miles remain before another name is etched into the history books at NASCAR’s highest level. An epic championship battle awaits on Sunday between Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr, Denny Hamlin, and Kevin Harvick at one of the most exciting tracks in NASCAR. We take this time to provide our championship thoughts and ultimately the best betting options with our 2019 Ford Ecoboost 400 race picks!

It has been an absolutely incredible season for our picks at NASCARWagers with currently more than 140 units of profit. We have been the most successful documented NASCAR handicapper in the business and will be looking to put a bow on this 2019 season on Sunday with one final winning ticket! From a handicapping perspective, Homestead-Miami Speedway is a bettor friendly track where we can rely on track history, current form, and sprinkle a few practice observations to formulate our picks. I personally believe prior track performance will be the most useful handicapping tool this week because Homestead-Miami Speedway is one of those tracks that can be difficult to navigate. This multi-groove 1.5 mile surface is significantly aged, lacks grip, and provides an abrasive surfaces that destroys tires. Pit strategy, long run speed, and a driver that can absolutely muscle the car through the turns with their foot in the gas are all keys to success at this challenging venue.

When the preferred handicapping angle is track history, I love to use loop data over recent races to see which drivers have performed best in recent races. If any new readers are tuning in this week, I would like to point out that handicapping does not always rely on track history as the main ingredient. The key to NASCAR betting is understanding what it takes at certain tracks to win and adjusting your handicapping formula to produce the best results which is exactly what we do each week. With that being said, let’s take a look at the top 10 drivers over the past 5 races at Homestead-Miami Speedway to provide a baseline of expectations going into Sunday!

Performance trends at Homestead

Rank	Driver	Races	Avg. Start	Avg. Running Position	Avg. Finish	Laps Led	Fastest Laps	Average
1	Kevin Harvick	5	8	3.4	2.6	237	131	124.6
2	Joey Logano	5	9.6	4.8	6.2	158	72	116.4
3	Kyle Larson	5	18.4	6.6	7.2	324	231	115
4	Kyle Busch	5	4.8	8.6	10.4	106	132	111.1
5	Brad Keselowski	5	4.6	7.6	10.6	87	36	103.9
6	Denny Hamlin	5	3	8.6	9.4	91	56	102.6
7	Martin Truex Jr	5	6.4	9.4	13.6	101	61	98.2
8	Chase Elliott	3	12.3	10	7.7	0	19	95.1
9	Kurt Busch	5	9.4	12	12.8	1	21	90.2
10	Jimmie Johnson	5	15.8	13.8	12	3	32	89.2

As you can see with the loop data stats above, Kevin Harvick leads all drivers with an impressive 124.6 average rating over the last 5 races. Harvick has historically performed well at the tracks that produce heavy tire wear even going back to his days with Richard Childress Racing but he has also been one of the fastest drivers in recent years on the 1.5 mile tracks. With the #4 team’s recent on the 1.5 mile surfaces, Harvick has to be considered a heavy favorite on Sunday to duplicate their 2014 efforts of winning the race and the championship.

Joey Logano and Kyle Larson are also listed very high on the loop data analytics. Logano came out of nowhere to win this race in 2018 to earn the championship but the driver of the #22 has always run well at Homestead. I am just not sure if I trust Team Penske’s current form on the 1.5 mile tracks to warrant betting attention towards the #22. Likewise, Kyle Larson is not in the best “form” this season but Chip Ganassi Racing has made improvements throughout the season with the rest of the Chevrolets. Despite not having the most “pure” speed, Larson remains an intriguing option due to his favorable skill set around the high-line which can be difficult to run. Earlier today we saw Tyler Reddick use that extreme high-line for the 2nd straight season to earn an Xfinity Series Championship and I don’t want to underestimate the advantage that can be found by running the high-line successfully at Homestead. Therefore, Larson remains a threat with every trip to South Florida.

For the rest of the competitors, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin likely stand out as the next best drivers in recent years at Homestead. Busch won this event in 2015 in route to a championship and has the 2nd most laps led (behind Harvick) among active drivers at Homestead. Meanwhile, Hamlin is the only active driver in the series with multiple wins at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Hamlin recorded wins in 2009 and 2013. Hamlin is the only driver in the Championship 4 without a prior Cup Series title but this venue has to provide some confidence due to Hamlin’s prior success. Hamlin has also been really strong on similar layouts this year which should elevate his potential value going into Sunday.

Lastly, Martin Truex Jr, the only championship contender not mentioned, shows up 7th on our loop data list. Truex has not had the consistency as some of the other drivers at Homestead. However since Truex paired with crew chief Cole Pearn in 2015, Truex has been really strong on the 1.5 mile layouts especially those that produce high tire wear because of their tremendous trends for maintaining long run speed. For those factors alone, Truex remains a viable contender

Practice Observations

Unfortunately, weather conditions cancelled both of Friday’s practices that were scheduled for 50 minutes each. NASCAR officials made the decision to cancel qualifying in effort to allow teams to practice on Saturday which was obviously the right thing to do. Practice time is extremely valuable when you are considering the stakes of a championship that are on the line. When practice did open earlier today, Joe Gibbs Racing flexed their muscles by taking the top 3 spots in practice. Kyle Busch posted the fastest lap of the afternoon at 168.966mph followed by Truex and Hamlin.

Of course single lap speed is meaningless at Homestead because lap times will fall off in the neighborhood of 2-3 seconds over a tire run. However if you look at lap averages, JGR cars were also the best in those categories as well. Joe Gibbs Racing cars led every single lap average in practice and oddly enough it was a different driver that led every category. Kyle Busch had the best 5 lap average, Denny Hamlin led the times in 10 lap averages, and Martin Truex emerged as the best car in terms of 15 lap averages. Therefore the speed from the JGR cars appears to be undeniable ahead of Sunday’s green flag.

I would also like to mention that both Kyle Larson and William Byron had excellent long run speed. I mentioned earlier Larson’s unique ability to run the high-line at Homestead like no other driver in the series and his times in practice were really solid. I expect the #42 to be at the front of the field in the closing laps tomorrow if they can stay out of trouble. For Byron, I don’t think his practice times are very surprising considering his performance on the 1.5 mile tracks this season which have featured top 10 finishes in 4 of the last 6 races on 1.5 mile surfaces. Byron has been improving all season and this is the time of the year where drivers really show how far they have improved. If the #24 team can back up the speed shown in practice, Byron should be a good betting option in the realm of H2H match-ups.

Betting and Fantasy Targets

It’s going to be difficult to find any value in the championship drivers on Sunday. Luckily, I have a parlay pending from the Xfinity Series race that will help bring value one of the favorites I choose to close out that open parlay. Beyond the parlay strategy, I think the best betting targets for this race will be H2H options. The championship drivers have a high probability of winning this race but there odds are extremely low. As a result, there is not a lot of value in the future options unless we can nail an upset winner like Larson or others. For H2H match-ups, I really like William Byron, Chase Elliott, and Martin Truex have the sharp value going into Sunday.

I mentioned my reasons for liking Byron in match-ups previously. Chase Elliott is another driver that is flying under the radar in terms of intermediate match-up pairings. Elliott is out of the championship picture and for some reason has lost the respect of odds makers. I understand Hendrick Motorsports cars are not where they need to be but Homestead is a track where the driver can make up a lot of ground. In 3 career starts, Elliott has never posted an average rating of less than 90 in any start at Homestead with finishes of 5th and 7th in the last two starts. Therefore, do not overlook the driver of the #9 based on his knack for navigating Homestead. Lastly, Martin Truex Jr may be my sharpest play on Sunday. I mentioned the strength of the JGR drivers in practices and I think these circumstances could be favoring the #19 team more than any other. Truex’s strength is consistency and long run speed which is exactly what the #19 car showed in practices. After 10-12 laps, Truex’s lap times were really impressive and I’m expecting the #19 team to be one of the biggest threats towards the victory on Sunday.

The starting line-up for the Ford Ecoboost 400 was set by the rule book eliminating any types of outliers in the realm of starting positions. For fantasy purposes, this makes things slightly more difficult without any “obvious” value from poor starting positions. After reviewing everything, I believe Chase Elliott and Erik Jones will be two of the better non-favorites for fantasy line-ups. Both drivers should move forward from their starting positions and have quality runs on Sunday. Both Jimmie Johnson and Austin Dillon are cheaper options that provide similar upside. I have avoided Johnson nearly all season and rarely advocate any type of betting attention. However, the #48 was strong at Chicagoland which is the most similar track surface and has a solid Homestead history which should be valuable from the 18th place starting spot. If you are looking for deep flyer options, John Hunter Nemechek and Landon Cassill may be desperate minimally price options that yield value.

Handicapping the Championship 4

If you missed today’s Ford Ecoboost 300 preview, I successfully handicapped the Championship 4 in the exact order of how they finished. Obviously handicapping the exact order of tomorrow’s championship competitors will be extremely difficult because each competitor has the talent and the performance capability of winning on Sunday. However, I know there are also a lot of betting contest and prop bets available for the championship which begs another attempt to perfectly handicap the championship. With all things considered, my ranking order for the championship drivers ahead of Sunday’s Ford Ecoobost 400 is Martin Truex Jr, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Busch!

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2019 Ford Ecoboost 400 Optimal Lineup

2019 Ford Ecoboost 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Kyle Larson +1000 (1 unit)
Joey Logano +2750 (.5 unit) *early play
Chase Elliott +5200 (.25 unit) *early play
Ryan Blaney +5750 (.25 unit) *early play
William Byron +21800 (.25 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Tyler Reddick +200 wins Ford Ecoboost 300 (win)
Martin Truex Jr +320 wins Ford Ecoboost 400
Risking 1 unit to win: +1160

Denny Hamlin +320 wins Ford Ecoboost 400
Chase Elliott +125 over Brad Keselowski
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1050

H2H Match-ups and Props

John Hunter Nemechek -120 over Reed Sorenson (3 units)
Ryan Blaney -130 over Alex Bowman (2 units)