2019 First Data 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday October 27th, 3:14PM (EST) at Martinsville Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

On Sunday, all eyes will turn to Martinsville Speedway for the running of the First Data 500. The half-mile paperclip will provide the ultimate concoction for drama with short track fender bending action combined with championship desperation for 500 laps of excitement. Earlier today, Denny Hamlin put the #11 car on the pole with a lap of 97.840mph as he seeks his 2nd straight win on the heels of last week’s victory at Kansas. Hamlin obviously has momentum but Martinsville is a unique battleground that provides opportunity with keen track position. As we prepare for racing at one of NASCAR’s most historic venues, we take the time to provide the best betting options for drivers that should have an opportunity to position themselves for victory. Take a look as we provide our 2019 First Data 500 race picks!

If you missed the Trucks Series preview, I did not take any early plays this week. I did not find much value in opening odds and once again did not want to saturate my risk on early dart throws. I have done a much better job this year of not forcing early picks when value does not exist and can utilize the saved risks to narrow our focus towards sharper betting options closer to race time. For today’s Cup Series race, I will put heavy focus towards track history because success at Martinsville largely comes from the driver seat but I will also make some practice observations to provide our main handicapping angles.

I will also note smaller sample sizes from our loop data to extrapolate track history from smaller sample sizes to see if we can find some hidden gems that have emerged in recent races as potential dark horses. It is the same formula I used in today’s Truck Series’ Hall of Fame 200, where we identified Harrison Buron and Todd Gilliland as dark horses. Gilliland and Burton battled Ross Chastain in the final laps of today’s race for the victory and Gilliland eventually earned his first career win to net us nearly 10 units of profit. With a few more solid picks and a little luck, hopefully we can do the same in the First Data 500 on Sunday.

Track History

From a track history point of view, Jimmie Johnson leads all active drivers with 9 victories at Martinsville Speedway. However, we also know that Johnson is well beyond “winning” form so his prior success does not make him a legitimate betting option on that factor alone. Aside from Johnson, Denny Hamlin’s 5 wins are the most among all other active drivers. Hamlin’s last win at Martinsville was in 2015 and he honestly has not been the best driver at Martinsville in recent years either. The big benefactor for Hamlin this weekend is the momentum factor and current form the #11 team has shown throughout the season.

Top 10 drivers at Martinsville over last 5 races

Rk	Driver	Races	Avg. Start	Avg. Pos	Avg. Finish	Laps Led	Fast Laps	Average
1	Kyle Busch	5	8	3.8	2.4	582	304	125.4
2	Brad Keselowski	5	5	4.6	4.2	712	337	124.3
3	Joey Logano	5	4	7.2	10.8	374	168	107.6
4	Chase Elliott	5	10.4	7	9.6	192	196	105.6
5	Clint Bowyer	5	6.8	8.4	7.8	216	133	104.4
6	Martin Truex Jr	5	9.4	7.2	6.6	64	140	103.5
7	Ryan Blaney	5	7.4	9.4	12	145	79	100.9
8	Denny Hamlin	5	6.4	8.4	11.2	173	161	100.8
9	Kevin Harvick	5	9.2	10.4	9.2	0	77	92.8
10	Kurt Busch	5	12.2	13.2	17.6	0	50	82.9

Staying on the historical narrative, Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, and Kurt Busch all have two wins at Martinsville Speedway. The plus notes for Rowdy and Keselowski is each of their two wins have all come in the last 7 races. In fact, Kyle (125.4) and Brad (124.3) have extremely high average ratings over the last 5 races at Martinsville which is head and shoulders above their nearest competitors. Interestingly though, there are a serious group of competitors that have run really well in the last few races that includes the likes of Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr, Ryan Blaney, and Clint Bowyer. I know Logano and Truex are nearly listed as favorites each week especially Truex despite his limited success on short tracks. So when we take into account betting odds, Blaney and Bowyer stick out as the best dark horses based on pure data trends going into Sunday’s race. I personally think that indicator is better for Blaney based on recent performance but that is not an analytical opinion.

Practice Observations

Remember track history is one important piece of the puzzle but typically we would like to see positive trends in practices as well. Chase Elliott has shown some positive performance trends in recent races at Martinsville and has actually been one of the best drivers in recent races. Elliott was the best overall car in final practice based on the overall average indicator but will be facing a huge disadvantage by starting in the rear after blowing an engine in Happy Hour. Practice averages can be a bit misleading at times and that is why I continue to map out lap times to decipher the data better.

From my conclusions, I believe Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer, and Martin Truex emerged as the best cars in Happy Hour. Truex’s #19 car handled really well and should be good for the long runs. Meanwhile both Hamlin and Bowyer were noticeably strong lap after lap. From the pole position, Hamlin holds high fantasy value with the possibility of leading many laps and providing a top finishing position barring trouble. I am not sure if Bowyer or Truex would be safe plays in the fantasy realm but the #14 should be on everyone’s betting radar based on odds value.

Along with Bowyer, I believe Ryan Blaney and Aric Almirola will provide sharp value as well. Both Blaney and Almirola were really strong in terms of lap times in final practice. In fact, Almirola may have been the best outright car in lap times for the entire session. Both are obviously risky plays for the outright victory especially Blaney with saturated odds but I really like Almirola as a sneaky H2H option. Almirola is one of those drivers that has shown positive performance progression over the last several Martinsville Speedway races. Despite a ton of struggles this year, this is the type of race where Almirola could surprise with a quality run at the front of the field and should be considered on all fronts.

Drives to Fade

One of the drivers moving up my fade list for Sunday is a rather surprising option in Brad Keselowski. Keselowski, along with Kyle Busch, has been the best driver at Martinsville in recent years. However as we saw last week, the #2 team is struggling for whatever reason. Keselowski just needed a top 15 effort last week and could not get the job done on the final restart. I have been watching this team closely and something is just off. Keselowski has failed to crack the top 10 in 3 consecutive weeks and he did not look good in practices on Saturday. Due to the nature the #2 will be among the heavy favorites, this gives us a great opportunity to pivot against lofty expectations.

Another driver that provides fade consideration based on track history is the #34 of Michael McDowell. McDowell has never been the short track ace but he has struggled tremendously at Martinsville. In 17 career starts, McDowell has cracked the top 20 just twice and has a terrible 31.18 average finishing position. Now I understand McDowell is a bottom-tier talent. However, if we can find match-ups against DiBenedetto, Bubba Wallace, or even the surging Corey LaJoie for a bottom tier pairing; McDowell still provides a lot of fade value!

2019 First Data 500 Optimal Lineup

2019 First Data 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Martin Truex Jr +540 (1.25 units)
Ryan Blaney +1350 (.75 unit)
Clint Bowyer +2700 (.5 unit)
Aric Almirola +5300 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Denny Hamlin +325 wins First Data 500
Ty Dillon +105 over Michael McDowell
Risking 1.25 units to win: +960

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Aric Almirola -120 over Alex Bowman (2 units)
Chase Elliott -110 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)