2019 Hall of Fame 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander Outdoors Truck Series Betting Predictions
Saturday October 26th, 1:18PM (EST) at Martinsville Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Gander Outdoors Truck Series will get a taste of short track racing tomorrow afternoon at the half-mile paperclip known as Martinsville Speedway in the running of the Hall of Fame 200. Tomorrow’s race marks the 2nd race in the Round of 6 as the Truck Series playoffs heat up. We have already seen the likes of Grant Enfinger and former series champion Johnny Sauter eliminated in the previous round. Currently the likes of Tyler Ankrum and one of the main favorites to win the title Ross Chastain are on the outside looking in from the cutoff line. However, everything can change in the blink of an eye with short track racing. As we keep an eye on the playoff battle, we turn our eyes to an intriguing handicapping opportunity at the paperclip. Take a look as we narrow down our betting targets with our 2019 Hall of Fame 200 race picks for Martinsville!

If you are wondering, I did not take any early picks this week. I was not enthusiastic with opening odds and absolutely zero value in the top betting threats for both races this weekend. As a result, I wanted to wait and see how practices unfolded before locking-in bets for the week. Earlier today, Truck Series’ teams and drivers participated in two practice sessions for tomorrow’s event. Rookie drivers actually got the privilege of having an extra practice. In the opening full practice, Christian Eckes used a mock qualifying lap to post the fastest lap of the session at 95.391mph. In Happy Hour, another mock qualifying effort took the top spot with Todd Gilliland’s time of 19.788 resulting in a lap of 95.694 mph. Unfortunately, the mock qualifying laps do not provide any indicators for race trim speed because everyone knows that long run speed is king at Martinsville Speedway.

Practice Observations

Practice observations are going to be uniquely tricky this week. The reason I make that statement is because we did not have many drivers run more than 10-15 laps. I know this is a rather short 200 lap race on Saturday but I still put value in long run speed. The difference in handling from the first couple of laps compared to 50 laps into a run can be completely different. So while we did not get a true observation on long run speed, we should consider the following observations with some caution.

With that being said, I thought Ross Chastain, Todd Gilliland, and Sheldon Creed stood out in the opening practice. I continue to be critical of Creed based on his limited experience but it is obvious that this young driver continues to improve with each passing week. In Happy Hour, Brett Moffitt, Matt Crafton, and once again Todd Gilliland appeared to be the top trucks. Gilliland and Crafton were probably the best overall with both practices combined. However, it just feels that Chastain and Moffitt will find a way to be in contention, especially if they get the track position. Chastain impressed everyone at Martinsville back in the spring before he moved to the Truck Series full-time and I would not be surprised if that happens again.

Track History

At a track like Martinsville, it is always important to highlight track history. Unlike most tracks, aero and horsepower advantages provide little success at the paperclip. This track is all about the driver finding rhythm, knowing how to navigate race traffic, and the team/driver finding a setup that will last over the long run. For those reasons, we often see similar faces emerge at the front of the field with driver input being so important for this particular venue. Veterans Johnny Sauter (4) and Matt Crafton (2) have shown consistent success at Martinsville with 6 combined victories. Sauter is the defending winner of the Hall of Fame 200 with a victory in this race in 2018. Meanwhile Crafton’s last win at the paperclip occurred in 2015. Still, both Sauter and Crafton typically find a way to run upfront at Martinsville and should always be considered viable threats to take home another grandfather clock.

For Crafton and Sauter, we have seen their strong history at Martinsville thanks in-part to their lengthy careers in the Truck Series; but what about some of the other drivers with smaller sample sizes? After all, the majority of the drivers in the Truck Series have only been racing at the NASCAR level for a short time and that can make it difficult to recognize early trends. I did a little research over the last 4 races for drivers with multiple starts which showed that Johnny Sauter (117.1), Ben Rhodes (109.95), Matt Crafton (102.8), and Brett Moffitt (102.0) are the only drivers with a plus 100 average driver rating at Martinsville. Even though Rhodes does not have the win percentage as the names surrounding him in that list, statistically Martinsville has been one of his best tracks.

There are a few other names that have also had really good performances on a more limited scale. Ross Chastain was really strong back in the spring race by leading 53 of 200 laps in route to a 4th place finish. Chastain has some experience at this track and maintains the aggressiveness to strike on any given weekend. John Hunter Nemechek owns a 2018 victory at Martinsville and despite making a part-time appearance; he always runs well at the short tracks. Meanwhile, teammates Harrison Burton and Todd Gilliland have shown surprisingly high ratings at Martinsville in each of their young careers. Both Burton and Gilliland are still seeking their first wins in the Truck Series and this is one of the tracks where I would list both as legitimate dark horses.

Drives to Fade

For potential fade considerations for tomorrow’s Hall of Fame 200, two of the drivers that headline my fade list include Austin Hill and Natalie Decker. For Hill, this is a situational and handicapping angle combined. Hill has been running really well and currently 3rd in the points standings. Hill has enjoyed a breakout season with the #16 team with wins at Daytona, Michigan, and Las Vegas. For the success Hill has provided at the big tracks, he remains short track challenged from a skill set point of view. To put it likely, this simply is not his best style of racing. In 8 career starts at Martinsville, Hill’s best finish is 9th and has averaged a 16th place finish. As a driver that will likely be considered one of the top tier drivers on Saturday, Hill provides immediate fade potential.

Likewise, the same can be said for Natalie Decker who is a bottom of the barrel threat. However, we see match-ups listed weekly with some of the bottom tier drivers including Decker and I think she is a near weekly fade. It may sound like I am being humorous but Decker simply should not be in the Truck Series. She has failed to finish 9 of her 16 starts this year and usually the tracks she finishes at are the biggest tracks the Truck Series visits. Basically she can’t stay out of trouble in close quarters and that is a nightmare angle for Martinsville. If you happen to find a match-up with Decker, consider a full fledged fade with confidence.

2019 Hall of Fame 200 Optimal Lineup

2019 Hall of Fame 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Matt Crafton +900 (1 unit)
Todd Gilliland +1350 (.75 unit)
Harrison Burton +1600 (.5 unit)
Sheldon Creed +4400 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Brett Moffitt +370 wins Hall of Fame 200
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

Ross Chastain +485 wins Hall of Fame 200
Team 2 – Open
Risking .75 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Sheldon Creed -120 over Austin Hill (3 units)
Todd Gilliland -120 over Grant Enfinger (2 units)
Matt Crafton -105 over Ben Rhodes (2 units)