2019 Bank of America ROVAL 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday September 29th, 2:38PM (EST) at Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

All eyes turn to Charlotte Motor Speedway’s ROVAL course on Sunday when the Monster Energy Cup Series takes center stage in the Bank of America ROVAL 400. Tomorrow’s event provides the first elimination race of the Chase before the Round of 12 begins next week at Dover. As the playoff drama heats up, fans will likely witness another chaotic event just as we seen in the inaugural ROVAL event last year. Fortunately the potential chaotic circumstances provide opportunistic betting opportunities which we will attempt to exploit. We take the time to breakdown our expectations and provide our 2019 Bank of America ROVAL 400 race picks!

If you missed my Xfinity Series preview earlier today, I did not take any early picks this week. I did not see much value in opening odds and I wanted to avoid forcing any unnecessary bets at all cost. In a typical road course race, a single missed turn, driver mistake, or an over aggressive move fueled by playoff desperation can completely ruin a strong handicapping afternoon. As a result, I think it is extremely important to be conservative with risk this week and ensure each bet has sharp value. I know that may seem like a generic statement but it is important to focus on sound strategy at this point in the season especially when playoff desperation starts kicking in for certain drivers which can cause match-up outcomes to flip like an opening game coin toss. As a result, every play that we make for Sunday’s ROVAL 400 will be geared towards high level confidence plays that minimize circumstantial risk.

As we turn our focus towards predictions and expectations, let’s discuss the drivers that should be a factor regardless of practice observations. The guy on top of the road course list is Martin Truex Jr who has won 4 of the last 7 road course races. Truex was also the guy in position for the victory in the Bank of America ROVAL 400 last year but was wrecked by Jimmie Johnson coming to the flag which allowed Ryan Blaney to steal the victory. Despite the missed opportunity last year, Truex remains the top road course threat and the #19 has looked good throughout the weekend. The only downside is the team had to replace the engine after Truex missed a shift in final practice meaning they will now start from the rear of the field. While starting from the rear definitely makes things more challenging, Truex and the #19 team are performing at another level as seen with back to back wins to kick off the Chase. So everyone should expect the #19 to be tough again on Sunday.

The other top tier road course talents in recent races have been Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick. Elliott has produced multiple road course victories both coming at Watkins Glen. Elliott was also able to finish 6th at the ROVAL in 2018. Kevin Harvick has not always been the most dominating road course driver but always seems to find a way to be there at the end. Meanwhile, Kyle Busch is a 4-time road course winner despite the fact his last victory was in 2015. Still, Rowdy continues to prove each year that he is a top road course talent with top 5 finishes in 3 of the last 5 road course events.

I know some people may be asking themselves why am I drawing so much road course comparison? After all the ROVAL concept combines typical oval and road course characteristics. Should we be giving more credit towards last year’s results that saw guys like Kyle Larson, Jimmie Johnson, and Ryan Blaney surprisingly exceed expectations? Perhaps but I am a little hesitant in looking back at prior results with only a single race sample size. Instead, I draw more comparisons with the ROVAL to current road course venues. For example, the new expanded chicane on the back stretch provides two identical braking zones similar to the “inner-loop” at Watkins Glen and there are other notable comparisons that I could spend time pointing out. Instead, I am just sticking with the road course narrative because I think it is the best current approach towards tomorrow’s expectations.

Practice Observations and Targets

Before Truex’s missed shift which resulted in engine issues, the #19 car was the class of the field in today’s practices. Truex had the best overall average in Happy Hour and was consistently posting the fastest laps of the session. However, I do believe the #19 is going to struggle getting through the field on Sunday with limited passing zones at the ROVAL which ultimately downgrades the betting value for Truex. Among other favorites, I believe the likes of Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, and Kevin Harvick are poised to run well. I thought Elliott closed out Happy Hour on a really strong note which is always a good handicapping indicator. Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick were also consistently posting strong lap times that would warrant betting consideration as well.

Luckily, there were several other cars that I thought were equally competitive on the stopwatch that will likely challenge the “favorites” on Sunday. Among those cars included a few surprising names including the likes of Clint Bowyer and Kyle Larson. If everyone remembers, Kyle Larson was in position to win this race last year but wrecked entering turn 1 during one of the final restarts. Still winless since 2017, Larson is still searching for that breakout opportunity. His driving style is not normally considered strong for road course style racing but he continues to show speed at the ROVAL for the 2nd straight year. Meanwhile, Clint Bowyer has quietly started turning things around in recent weeks. After a disastrous stretch of races over the summer months, Bowyer has posted top 10 finishes in 4 of the last 5 races. More importantly, Bowyer has always been a strong road course driver and has shown promising indicators this weekend in each session. If you are looking for a sharp H2H play for Sunday, Bowyer provides a lot of upside as a guy that could easily sneak into contention for the victory.

If you are looking for some deeper H2H, fantasy, or underdog type drivers, I would also consider Matt Dibenedetto and Jimmie Johnson as solid options. Dibenedetto has showcased his road course talent and overall skill on several occasions this year. I hit a 17-1 top 5 prop with Matt D at Sonoma and while I am sure we will not see that type of value again; Dibenedetto has shown some really good speed this weekend. If you consider the fact the driver of the #95 usually gets the best of his equipment, then those observations are encouraging ahead of Sunday’s event.

For Jimmie Johnson, I hope everyone knows how surprising it is for me to list him as a driver to consider. I have been fading the #48 since the beginning of the year with great success as I consider Johnson to be on the downside end of his career. However, Johnson proved he could challenge in this race last year and has shown solid speed throughout the weekend again. Now it is important to note, Johnson did spin in Happy Hour all by himself but the team is reportedly going to fix the damage to prevent going to a backup car. Even though I like Johnson’s chances to run well on Sunday, he remains a risky betting option. As a result, I would not advocate backing the #48 in match-up considerations. If you can find a high paying group or prop bet, then perhaps that would be a better type of bet if you wanted to include the #48 in your lineup this week.

Drivers to Fade

Starting in the 28th position, Denny Hamlin provides an ideal spot for fantasy players to get a top tier driver with great place differential upside. From a betting standpoint, Hamlin deserves some fade consideration ahead of Sunday’s green flag. The driver of the #11 posted mediocre lap times and nothing overly impressive that would lead me to believe Hamlin will drive through the field with ease. More importantly, Hamlin missed the chicane on 2 separate instances in both practices on Saturday. As most are aware, anytime a driver misses the chicane they must come to a complete stop on the frontstretch which means several positions will be lost. If Hamlin makes that mistake on Sunday, it will be costly. Furthermore, Hamlin was also struggling with handling issues throughout the day which makes me think there are bigger problems to worry about than simple driver mistakes.

Another driver that I would have towards the top of my fade list includes the #3 of Austin Dillon. I pointed out Dillon’s immense struggles at road course venues back at Watkins Glen but I will touch on them yet again. In 13 career starts, Austin Dillon has an average finishing position of 24.6 at road course venues. The driver of the #3 machine has finished outside the top 20 in the last 4 road course races. I have watched Dillon closely at the road course races this year and his performance has been nothing shy of awful. I am not sure if there is an effort concern but it is apparent that this team chalks up road course races as a loss. In today’s Happy Hour, Dillon had the 4th worst average time and posted just the 13th best 5 lap average. Therefore, I will be looking to fade Dillon just as I did successfully back at Watkins Glen.

Draftkings 2019 Bank of America ROVAL 400 Fantasy Optimal Lineup

2019 Bank of America ROVAL 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Brad Keselowski +850 (1 unit)
Kyle Busch +900 (1 unit)
Kevin Harvick +1500 (.75 unit)
Clint Bowyer +1750 (.75 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Justin Allgaier +165 over Chase Briscoe (win)
Martin Truex Jr/Chase Elliott +250 wins Bank of America ROVAL 400
Risking 1 unit to win: +825

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Clint Bowyer -120 over Erik Jones (2 units)
Matt Dibenedetto +600 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)