2019 Drive for the Cure 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Saturday September 28th, 3:49PM (EST) at Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

NASCAR returns to the ROVAL at Charlotte Motor Speedway for back to back days of racing this weekend. The first green flag of the weekend will drop tomorrow in the Xfinity Series with the running of the Drive for the Cure 250. Last year, Chase Briscoe scored his 1st career Xfinity Series victory in the inaugural debut of the ROVAL course at Charlotte Motor Speedway. This year the layout has changed slightly with expanded width surrounding the chicane on the backstretch as well as expanded space at the entrance of turn 3. However, the overall ROVAL concept remains relatively new and perhaps provides another opportunity for a surprise winner. We breakdown our thoughts and provide our best betting options with our 2019 Drive for the Cure 250 race picks!

If you are wondering, I did not send out any early picks this week for my subscribers which is probably the first time I have failed to provide early picks in over 2 months. I simply did not see a lot of value in openers and I did not want to force bets that would tie up any unnecessary risk. Additionally, I would point to the fact that this ROVAL design is still relatively new. When I look at last year’s races, the outcomes were relatively surprising. Nobody was really giving Chase Briscoe any formidable handicapping attention outside of sheer value in terms of betting odds. On the Cup Series side, few expected the likes of Kyle Larson and Jimmie Johnson to battle upfront for the win all afternoon as both drivers were amidst huge winless slumps; yet both drivers had an excellent opportunity to score a victory in the final laps. Simply put, this race maintains some ‘wild card’ value and we should ensure that our betting action is geared towards the sharpest plays for a race that contains elevated risk by nature.

Before we jump into practice observations and drivers expectations, I first wanted to outline the results from the prior 3 road course events this year. Unlike the Cup Series, the Xfinity Series has an extra road course venue on the schedule each year and I believe it is 1 additional piece of information to consider for this week’s final road course event. Austin Cindric won 2 out of the 3 road course races at Watkins Glen and Mid-Ohio. Meanwhile, Christopher Bell finished 2nd in both of those races before eventually scoring a victory at Road America. Therefore, Cindric and Bell are obviously your top two threats for this style of racing which should come of little surprise. For the rest of the competitors, I put together a chart of the 3 road course races this year to compare loop data stats to be added into our handicapping thoughts for Saturday.

*Date reflects drivers that participated in all 3 prior road course races this season

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	High Pos.	Low Pos.	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Austin Cindric	126.6	2.0	3.3	1.3	1	32	5.7	-40	58	51	58	202
Christopher Bell	124.0	6.3	4.0	2.0	1	30	4.7	-63	51	21	28	202
AJ Allmendinger	112.7	4.7	3.7	9.7	1	33	6.0	-14	64	20	34	202
Cole Custer	102.4	7.0	18.3	8.7	2	34	14.0	16	68	3	0	202
Tyler Reddick	99.8	7.0	10.0	4.3	1	35	9.0	-29	51	1	0	202
Chase Briscoe	99.6	7.0	13.7	7.0	1	33	10.0	10	81	1	7	202
Justin Allgaier	99.4	8.3	19.0	6.3	1	37	12.3	38	56	8	13	202
Noah Gragson	99.4	10.0	16.3	6.3	1	30	9.7	20	72	2	1	202
Justin Haley	95.4	10.7	7.7	10.0	1	31	9.7	50	73	3	1	202
Jeremy Clements	86.1	10.3	17.0	10.3	2	31	12.0	35	57	2	0	202
Michael Annett	78.8	17.7	15.0	11.3	1	34	14.7	36	61	1	1	202
Ryan Sieg	76.0	16.0	10.0	19.3	5	30	16.3	24	50	0	0	167
Brandon Jones	74.9	13.0	16.3	14.7	3	36	16.3	-6	53	1	0	202
Gray Gaulding	73.2	16.7	11.7	19.7	5	31	14.3	10	48	0	0	201
John Hunter	71.3	16.3	9.3	23.3	3	31	16.7	-19	50	1	0	168
Josh Bilicki	65.3	17.3	19.0	21.3	6	33	18.0	15	42	0	0	192
Tommy Joe Martins	60.6	21.0	19.3	24.0	8	31	19.0	-4	17	1	0	185
Ray Black Jr.	58.1	26.3	23.3	18.7	6	36	22.7	26	17	1	0	202
Garrett Smithley	51.7	26.0	20.0	26.0	3	32	22.7	-18	7	1	0	192
Stephen Leicht	50.7	25.7	23.0	29.0	9	34	23.7	-1	10	0	0	154
Josh Williams	49.7	27.0	22.7	24.3	1	34	24.3	-53	3	0	1	198
Brandon Brown	48.0	28.3	27.7	26.7	2	35	25.7	-18	22	1	0	166
David Starr	40.6	31.0	25.3	26.7	13	34	27.7	15	1	0	0	138
BJ McLeod	38.9	33.3	28.7	25.7	13	35	30.0	22	0	1	0	185
Joey Gase	34.7	32.3	31.3	30.0	19	36	31.7	-11	0	1	0	62
Vinnie Miller	33.3	36.3	31.7	30.0	18	37	32.3	14	0	0	0	118
Chad Finchum	29.5	34.7	34.3	34.3	17	37	33.7	1	0	0	0	58
JJ Yeley	25.3	30.3	37.0	37.0	25	38	37.0	1	0	0	0	10

As you can see from the loop data, Austin Cindric and Christopher Bell clearly stand out as the top two drivers. However, AJ Allmendinger has shared a lot of quality time at the front of the field as well. Cole Custer and Tyler Reddick have high ratings which has been the case everywhere this season. Perhaps the most intriguing pieces of information related to the loop data above is that group just shy of the 100 average rating which includes Justin Allgaier, Chase Briscoe, and Noah Gragson. I think most would have expected Allgaier to be a bit higher considering his background of being a threatening road course talent. Instead Allgaier seems to continue to provide little confidence that his winless streak will end with his consistent subpar performances in race conditions. However, I did find it interesting that both Noah Gragson and Chase Briscoe were within striking distance in terms of loop data stats. Anytime you have an average driver rating of 100 or above, that is considered significantly strong and those are two names that you typically don’t think about when it comes to road course racing in the Xfinity Series.

Practice Observations

I mapped out lap times for the first time in several weeks on Friday. Thankfully NASCAR.com has provided dynamic averages in recent weeks which makes things easier for me personally. However, I think there are still advantages to mapping out every lap because you get a better holistic picture of how things unfold. If certain drivers make gains later or fade from the start of practice, all of that is important information to know. From my observations from Friday’s sessions specifically as it pertains to Happy Hour, AJ Allmendinger has definitely appeared to be the best of the bunch. Allmendinger ran 5 consecutive laps with an average that would have placed him in 6th in terms of fast lap speeds. If everyone remembers, one of Allmendinger’s best finishes of 2018 come at the ROVAL when he drove to a 7th place finish in the Bank of America ROVAL 400. Therefore he has shown a fast adaptation to this track and it showed on the stopwatch in both practices on Friday.

Among the rest of the competition, Christopher Bell looked really solid as he continues to prove he is one of the best road course talents in the Xfinity Series’ garage. Justin Allgaier was impressive again as he continues to prove he can run fast laps in practice and fade during the race. I was not overly impressed by Austin Cindric’s times. Not saying I would fade the #22 but just saying I did not think he looked as good as most would have expected. Noah Gragson and Tyler Reddick showed promising trends that are poised to contend towards the front of the field. I personally love Gragson as a H2H target given his upside against the competition that is usually paired against him in match-ups.

Meanwhile, Tyler Reddick continues to prove he can be a threat on any surface. If you are looking for deeper fantasy flier options, I thought both Alex Labbe and Preston Pardus were impressive on the stopwatch. Labbe has consistently produced top 20 finishes in his limited starts this year when the equipment has held up and provides the same type of upside on Saturday. Meanwhile, Pardus is making his 2nd career start following a disappointing outing at Road America back in August. Pardus was fast throughout the weekend and qualified in the 15th position before his afternoon ended prematurely with suspension issues. If Pardus does not qualify as well on Saturday, his salary on DraftKings provides a potential punt option.

Drivers to Fade

One driver that stood out more than anyone in terms of struggles on Saturday included the #19 of Brandon Jones. Jones’ was not terrible in terms of raw speed but he made several mistakes that would be extremely costly under regular race conditions. I also like the fact that Jones is worthy of “fade” consideration in my loop data stats provided above. Jones average mid-race performance through the first 3 road course races has been 16.4 and if that trend continues, there will be some value in fading the #19 car. Another driver that I believe fits both of those narratives includes the #23 of John Hunter Nemechek. John Hunter’s average driver rating through the first 3 road course events is a measly 71.3. I have called out the fact in prior road course previews that this style of racing does not fit John Hunter’s strengths and that position still stands. The #23 car was also 9th out of 10 among the 10 cars that ran 5 consecutive laps in Happy Hour. Therefore, Nemechek should be a confident fade on Saturday as well!

Draftkings 2019 Drive for the Cure 250 Fantasy Optimal Lineup

2019 Drive for the Cure 250 Race Picks

*Final*

AJ Allmendinger +330 (2 units)
Justin Allgaier +1600 (.5 unit)
Noah Gragson +6700 (.25 units)

Two Team Parlays

Christopher Bell +290 wins Drive for the Cure 250
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

Justin Allgaier +165 over Chase Briscoe
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Ryan Truex -110 over Brandon Jones (3 units)