2019 South Point 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday September 15th, 7:16PM (EST) at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The opening round of the Chase will commence from Las Vegas Motor Speedway Sunday evening with the running of the South Point 400. Back in March, Joey Logano scored his first victory of the season by winning the Pennzoil 400 in Sin City. This week Team Penske has returned to Vegas with serious speed as the team looks to win their 3rd straight at Las Vegas Motor Speedway going back to Brad Keselowski’s win in this race one year ago. However, chaos and intensity is bound to pick up as a result of playoff implications. We take the time to discuss the plausible outcomes and provide our 2019 South Point 400 race picks for Vegas!

Earlier today, Clint Bowyer put the #14 car on the pole with a lap of 178.926mph. Bowyer led the Stewart-Haas Racing cars that dominated qualifying by capturing the top 4 positions. Daniel Suarez qualified in the 2nd position while Kevin Harvick and Aric Almirola will start from the 2nd row. The Stewart-Haas Racing cars will have some extra attention looming over those teams at the start of tomorrow’s race. Not only did they take the top 4 qualifying spots but they blew the doors off the competition. Since this was an impound race, it will be interesting to see if the single lap qualifying speed carries over to race trim.

In Friday’s practices, the Stewart-Haas Racing cars did not look that impressive. So the question becomes did the cars find speed with overnight changes? Are the cars more trimmed out which has advantages for short run speed? We know that teams are attempting to bring their Sunday best for the start of the playoffs so I would not assume the Stewart-Haas Racing cars are set-up for short run speed. Those teams and drivers know the importance of race trim speed. It’s just hard to imagine those cars being that dominate in qualifying and that same speed transitioning into the race. One thing that is certain is that we should know relatively quickly after the green flag waves because teams will not be able to change anything on the cars following qualifying.

In both practices on Friday, I thought the Team Penske cars emerged as the fastest cars in race trim especially when you consider long runs. Brad Keselowkski and Joey Logano were both really strong in terms of long run speed which may not be too surprising considering both drivers have won the last 2 races at Las Vegas. Both drivers also lead all active drivers in the average driver rating when observing loop data statistics over the last 5 races in Sin City. With that being said, I don’t think neither Keselowski nor Logano was overly dominate in terms of race trim speed. Guys like Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick, whom most consider the biggest contenders towards the championship, were right there in terms of speed. I would give Rowdy the edge over Harvick in terms of practice observations but again the Stewart-Haas cars took a big step forward in qualifying which should be given some consideration due to the fact cars were impounded.

South Point 400 betting targets

I believe we will see parity at the front of the field on Sunday and perhaps throughout the playoffs in the upcoming weeks. At this point in the season, nobody has emerged as a runaway contender. While I believe Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick are best prepared to make a run at the championship, I am going to pivot back to the Team Penske drivers for Sunday’s main targets. Both Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano looked really strong in practices and have performed best at Las Vegas in recent races. Because it will be hot and slick tomorrow, good handling race cars should provide an advantage over the competition. Based on what I have seen and the feedback collected, the #2 and #22 are among the best handling cars on the track which is probably why their single lap speed in qualifying was underwhelming.

Aside from the top threats, I have a few guys circled on my handicapping sheet that I will look to target in H2H betting match-ups and likely use in fantasy lineups in some fashion. One of the guys that has vaulted up my list this week includes the #9 of Chase Elliott. It seems like the #9 team and Hendrick Motorsports collectively is hit or miss each week. I have actually faded Elliott in recent weeks on a couple of match-ups because I did not feel the team showed enough speed to contend. This week the Hendrick cars have looked pretty decent and Elliott has been the best of the bunch. One thing I have learned throughout the Chevrolets struggles in recent years is that when Elliott practices well; he is usually tough on race day.

In the realm of fantasy, William Byron and Ryan Newman were trending above their normal performance positions. I have mentioned on numerous occasions in recent weeks that Byron is starting to come into his own. Meanwhile, playoffs racing is what Ryan Newman lives for. Newman caught my eye in practices with more speed than usual from the #6 team and while that does not necessarily mean it will transition into race speed; I have a feeling the #6 will maximize his opportunities. If you are looking for a bigger flier option in the realm of fantasy, let me suggest Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Stenhouse’s aggressiveness always presents a risky play in fantasy or betting lineups. However, the #17 car has been really fast all weekend and it is important to point out that the team finished 6th here back in the spring marking their 2nd best finish of the season.

Drivers to fade

One of the drivers that I had penciled on my fade list included the #10 of Aric Almirola. I circled the #10 in practices because I knew how important handling would be on Sunday and the #10 team struggled severely with handling issues in practices. I was worried that we may not have any value in fading the #10 but then the Stewart-Haas Racing cars delivered in qualifying with the top 4 positions. However, I am not backing away from my expectations with Almirola because I still believe he has the worst car of the Stewart-Haas group and I am not convinced they can keep that car towards the front. Hopefully once odds are released, we have some better value fading the #10 after the strong qualifying effort.

One of the more quality fades that I would consider on Sunday involves avoiding the #78 car of Martin Truex Jr. I have not been impressed with the #78 team in recent weeks and I think they are battling an uphill battle again this week. Truex qualified back in the 24th position and while I don’t think qualifying results are important; I don’t believe that team has a car that will shoot through the field unless they optimize their performance and strategy on pit road. I just perceive the #78 team as lacking speed and I have not been impressed with their long run speed. Truex is usually one of the best long run drivers in the field and I believe they have lost some of their edge in the long run department. Therefore, I would consider fading the #78 car on Sunday if you can find value in opposing match-ups.

Draftkings 2019 South Point 400 Fantasy Predictions

2019 South Point 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Brad Keselowski +675 (1.25 units)
Joey Logano +800 (1 unit)
Chase Elliott +1500 (.75 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1800 (.75 unit) *early play

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Busch +425 wins South Point 400
Chris Buescher +115 over Paul Menard
Risking 1 unit to win: +1025

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ricky Stenhouse Jr -110 over Austin Dillon (2 units)
Chase Elliott -120 over Martin Truex (2 units)
Chase Elliott +200 wins Group C (Ku. Busch, Blaney, Bowman)(1 unit)
Ryan Blaney +400 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)