2019 UNOH 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander Outdoors Truck Series Betting Predictions
Thursday August 15th, 8:37PM (EST) at Bristol Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

If you are ready for racing under the lights at Bristol Motor Speedway, the action will begin tonight in the Gander Outdoors Truck Series with the running of the UNOH 200. Tonight’s event marks the Truck Series lone event at the World’s Fastest Half-Mile and if you consider the great racing this series has produced in recent weeks; Bristol provides the perfect ingredients for another exciting race in the Truck Series this evening. As we prepare for 3 straight nights of racing at the greatest short track on the planet, we take the time breakdown tonight’s main event and provide our 2019 UNOH 200 race picks!

Earlier this morning, Truck Series teams participated in 2 practices in preparation for tonight’s UNOH 200. Qualifying is currently scheduled 4:35PM (EST) which will help us finalize our fantasy predictions once the starting lineup is official. For the main event, I think it became obvious earlier that Brett Moffitt has emerged as the driver to beat this evening which were along the lines of my expectations heading into tonight’s event. I took Moffitt at openers this week because of his strength at these high banked concrete short tracks. If you remember back at Dover earlier this year, Moffitt was the dominant truck throughout the event but lost to Johnny Sauter on a late race restart. Though Bristol is a shorter-track in terms of length, similarities between the two venues are easily identified especially from a driver input standpoint.

In final practice both Sauter and Moffitt, who battled for the win at Dover, shined in Happy Hour. I personally thought Moffitt was the best driver in the field in terms of overall speed that accounted for long runs. However as we have seen in the Truck Series this year, the competition is fierce throughout the field and the parity is the best we have seen in the series’ history. We have seen multiple dark horses win races this year from Ross Chastain, Tyler Ankrum, and even last week Austin Hill cashed as long shot for the 2nd time this season. As a result, these younger drivers have to be given some respect as legitimate threats on a weekly basis in the Truck Series.

With those ideas in mind, I would openly state that Austin Hill and Sheldon Creed were the best among those drivers I would label as dark horses earlier today. For Hill, he has to be taken seriously after scoring his 2nd win of the season. The #16 team is a proven group that is producing quality speed and Hill has proved he has the talent to succeed with this group. For Sheldon Creed, I nearly took a gamble on Creed at openers because I know his young history has been focused around short tracks but ultimately did not pull the trigger. Creed has not had the quality of success that some of the other dark horses have displayed but I do believe in his talent. At this point in his career, Creed is better suited to break through on the shorter tracks and possibly has some upside going into tonight’s event.

Drivers to Target

I mentioned earlier that Brett Moffitt has been my favorite play this week before and after practices. I still believe Moffitt is the guy best suited to thrive tonight. However, I also believe this is a perfect opportunity for Johnny Sauter to end his mid-season slump. Since the win at Dover in the 1st week of May, Sauter has surprisingly failed to record a top 5 finish and desperately needs something positive to happen to this #13 team. Sauter will have that opportunity this evening at a place where raw speed takes a backseat to experience which is possibly what the #13 team needs to have a good run. Another guy that should be on everyone’s radar is the #52 of Stewart Friesen. Friesen finally scored that 1st win at Eldora a few weeks ago and this team is very dangerous on the smaller tracks. Friesen had some of the best lap averages in the field in both practices and will be among the deserving favorites to go after the win tonight. I also feel like the driver of the #52 is a sharp play in the realm of H2H match-ups and should be targeted in match-ups that provide value.

Drivers to Fade

I don’t have many specific drivers that I am actively pursuing to fade in betting match-ups tonight. I am happy with my early H2H bet that included Ben Rhodes over Todd Gilliland. Gilliland did not show much speed in practice and was probably the worst of the Kyle Busch Motorsports trucks. I was hoping that Ben Rhodes would have been better but he was still decent in terms of overall speed. However in terms of pure fades, I don’t have many drivers on my radar tonight. Perhaps Ryan Sieg is a guy that I will look to fade if I can find any match-ups with the full-time Xfinity Series participant. Sieg is running for Reaume Brothers Racing this week which is a vastly underfunded team that has limitations in terms of performance. Therefore if we can find a situation where Sieg’s name overshadows the equipment he is behind this week then that may be an opportunity to exploit weakness.

Another driver that may be worth fade consideration among the more popular names is Chandler Smith in the #51 truck. I know fading the #51 truck is not ideal in any situation with Rudy Fugle on top of the pit box. However, Smith has started becoming a driver that has been vaulted into the thick of the favorites this week and I just cannot find the justification in that value. Smith did not show that type of value in practices this morning and while I am sure that truck will race better once the green flag is waved; I am still not sure the #51 is going to be as competitive as people expect.

2019 Draftkings UNOH 200 Optimal Lineup

2019 UNOH 200 Race Picks

*Final

Brett Moffitt +660 (1.25 unit) *early play
Stewart Friesen +660 (1.25 unit)
Ben Rhodes +1750 (.75 unit) *early play
Austin Hill +2750 (.5 unit)
Parker Kligerman +6000 (.25 unit) *early play

Team Team Parlays

Sam Mayer +155 over Chandler Smith
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Ben Rhodes -130 over Todd Gilliland (2 units)
Austin Hill +105 over John Hunter Nemechek (2 units)
Grant Enfinger -115 over Chandler Smith (2 units)