2019 US Cellular 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Saturday July 27th, 5:15PM (EST) at Iowa Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Shortly after the Truck Series concludes at Pocono, the Xfinity Series will get their opportunity to take center stage when the green flag is waved for the U.S. Cellular 250 at Iowa Speedway. Tomorrow’s Xfinity Series race will be the closing act of a Saturday double header in NASCAR. Perhaps the main storyline entering Saturday is Christopher Bell who is looking to build on his impressive resume at Iowa. Bell is the defending winner of the U.S Cellular 250 and also scored a win in the CircuitCity.com 250 at Iowa last month. Now Bell has an opportunity to make it 3 in a row as he seeks his 6th victory of the season. The major question for Saturday is can anyone stop the #20? We discuss our thoughts and more as we provide our 2019 U.S. Cellular 250 race picks!

In Friday’s practices, Bell topped the charts in the opening session before finishing 3rd in Happy Hour. However, he was surrounded by fellow “Big 3” rivals Tyler Reddick and Cole Custer. Custer was Bell’s biggest challenger last month and has been Bell’s biggest challenger all season as the two are tied with 5 wins on the year. Custer finished 2nd at Iowa in June after leading 59 laps and obviously appears to have the best chance of dethroning the #20 team. However, I think Tyler Reddick may be the sharper pick for Saturday afternoon’s U.S. Cellular 250. Reddick proved last week that he can be a force on the smaller surfaces with an impressive run in Loudon. More importantly the #2 appeared to be strong in final practice especially on the long run and while nobody matched the speed of the #20 car; Reddick did have the best speeds among the remainder of the competition.

If you remember my preview back in June, I labeled Iowa as a “skill” track. The setup on the car does not have to be perfect and it does not require the best aero packages. However, drivers must be able to roll the center of the turn to maximize speed on corner exit. The reason you need the car to roll the center is because anything else will burn the rear tires off the car which will kill long run speed. As a result, it will not be a surprise when we see familiar faces at the front of this field again just like we did last month. Now that does not mean everything will unfold exactly the same but it does mean that the mere likelihood of a big underdog type of victory is basically non-existent.

From a historical standpoint, Justin Allgaier has always run well at Iowa. Allgaier scored a victory at Iowa in the 1st race in 2017. Last month in the CircuitCity.com 250, he finished 3rd behind Bell and Custer. Allgaier actually drove from 14th to 3rd in the opening stage. However for whatever reason whether it is equipment related or potentially just driver related, the #7 team just has not had the speed as those top guys this year. The only race the #7 car really had winning speed was midway through the Richmond race but even that speed faded towards the end of that event. So while Allgaier is an excellent driver at Iowa, I remain skeptical on his winning potential for Saturday.

Allgaier will likely be another strong fantasy driver on Saturday because he has a history of mediocre qualifying efforts. Another guy that I will be targeting in match-ups and potential fantasy line-ups includes the #98 of Chase Briscoe. If you look at Briscoes’ finishes this season, they are extremely solid based on the expectations for the young driver going into the season. In recent weeks, the speed seemingly faded a bit compared to their May-June form. Still, Briscoe has finished 7th or better in 4 of the last 6 races. The #98 caught my eye on a couple of instances on Friday in practices. The car was fast off the hauler and appeared to get better on the long run with each trip onto the track. Therefore I believe the #98 car has shown more speed this week and I am banking for that to correlate into a strong performance on Saturday.

Drivers to Fade

I could continue to make the case for several additional drivers who have the potential to make a strong run on Saturday. Zane Smith had a career best 5th place finish last month. Brandon Jones has shown speed this weekend and Austin Cindric seems to be gaining momentum each week. However when it comes to identifying drivers to fade, the task is a bit difficult. I have looked at a lot of different data, finishes on similar layouts, and other items that I consider when handicapping races. After all of that research, my best fades are Justin Haley and Noah Gragson.

Gragson may be a slightly more risky fade because of his current form which includes finishes of 6th or better in 6 of the last 8 races. I actually took a longshot play at openers on Gragson at 55-1 for a small .25 unit. However, Gragson struggled with the handling on the #9 car in practice and never appeared to have much speed from a consistency standpoint. I kept expecting the team to rebound but just never did see the competitive speeds. I may be overreacting to a degree but if we can find Gragson paired against some of the top intermediate drivers, he may be worth the fade consideration. Meanwhile, Justin Haley is a good driver to fade because he simply struggles at these shorter/flatter layouts. Haley’s best finishes have come on the 1.5 mile and bigger layouts throughout his career. Haley is not known for his short track talent and his average finishing position on tracks that are 1 mile or shorter are unimpressive to say the least. Therefore, put the #11 on your fade list.

2019 Draftkings U.S. Cellular 250 Optimal Lineup

*TBA* following qualifying Saturday at 12:05PM (EST)

2019 U.S. Cellular 250 Race Picks

*Final

Tyler Reddick +700 (1 unit)
Justin Allgaier +1500 (.75 unit)
Chase Briscoe +2300 (.5 unit)
Austin Cindric +4400 (.25 unit) *early play
Noah Gragson +5500 (.25 unit) *early play

Two Team Parlays

Ross Chastain +485 wins Gander RV 150 (win)
Christopher Bell -120 wins U.S. Cellular 250
Risking .75 unit to win: +730

Riley Herbst +135 over Zane Smith
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

John Hunter Nemechek -115 over Justin Haley (2 units)
Zane Smith -115 over Michael Annett (2 units)