2019 Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday July 21st, 3:15PM (EST) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

On Sunday, the big boys of NASCAR will fire the engines at New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the running of the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 in what promises to be an exciting afternoon of racing. Personally, I have always enjoyed racing at the Magic Mile. The flat surface produces a lot of side by side racing and drivers have to get creative with their passing angles. So far this weekend, the heat has added an element of difficulty for NASCAR’s bests. The track has been very slick and a new GoodYear tire compound has added some unwanted issues. In total, 5 different teams had to resort to backup cars for tomorrow’s main event including Alex Bowman who crashed his backup car and had to take another backup car from the #48 team. If those incidents are any indication of what to expect on Sunday, we should expect a wild race. We take this time to breakdown everything that happened in practices earlier today and discuss our expectations with our 2019 Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 race picks for New Hampshire!

Bowman, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Ryan Newman, and William Byron are among the group of drivers that will start from the rear of the field after being forced into backup cars. A few of those incidents were the result of blown tires which has caused some concerns going into Sunday. GoodYear provided a completely new tire formula this week at New Hampshire. Whether it is the actual new tire setup or teams choosing to flirt with dangerously low air pressure in heated conditions at New Hampshire, tire issues remain a concern. Even in final practice this afternoon, Matt Dibenedetto blew two tires in back to back runs. Fortunately, the #95 team will not have to go to a backup car as the team was able to repair the minimal damage sustained. While Dibenedetto’s issues appeared to be some type of setup driven tire issues, it was just another example of mysterious tire issues that have been seen throughout the weekend. For that reason, I think bettors should perhaps be cautious in their overall risk this weekend. I typically lay a lot of money on H2H match-ups at tracks like New Hampshire that favor handicapping. However, I have learned in the past that tire issues can absolutely destroy handicapping advantages. While I think the tire issues have caused some overreaction, I just want to mention the complications that it provides to handicapping if these issues continue into Sunday.

Aside from the potential tire complications, I am really looking forward to tomorrow’s race. The hot surface is definitely going to bring out the best from the drivers and I am expecting a ton of hard racing as drivers fight for track position. Going into the weekend, I really expected Kyle Busch and Martin Truex to be my main ponies this weekend. Both drivers have produced a lucrative average driver rating of 125 over the last 5 races which is light years ahead of the competition. Truex has yet to score a win in Loudon but has led at least 80 plus laps in the last 5 events. Meanwhile, Busch has been equally impressive with a win as recently as the fall of 2017 and 3 wins combined at the Magic Mile. When you combine the stats with the success from Busch and Truex this year, this race tomorrow just seems like another prime opportunity for those drivers to score another victory.

Overall, I thought Kyle Busch and the #18 team emerged as the best car in practices. However, it is important to note that practices also proved that there is some serious parity ahead of Sunday’s green flag. Kevin Harvick, the defending winner of this race, looked really strong on the long run which is extremely important at New Hampshire. Harvick has won 2 of the last 4 races in Loudon and the #4 team feels like they have an excellent opportunity to end their winless drought on Sunday. Meanwhile, Team Penske cars have looked really good this weekend. Brad Keselowski won the pole on Friday and has been one of the best cars all weekend. Ryan Blaney finished Happy Hour with the best 10 lap average and showed speed throughout both of Saturday’s sessions. Meanwhile guys like Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin bounced back from troubles to show some speed in Happy Hour to leave people wondering if they can drive from the back to a win on Sunday. Most importantly it is worth noting that there were about 8-10 drivers that were within just a few tenths of each other on laps times among the lead group of cars. Track position is already important at New Hampshire because of the difficulty of passing but it will be important on Sunday because so many competitors are within the same speed bracket among the top group of drivers.

Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Dark Horses

In terms of potential dark horses, I think it is a matter of what most would consider a dark horse. I consider Kyle Larson a dark horse because he is looking for his first points win of 2019. As stated earlier, Larson had to go to a backup car after wrecking on Friday. However, the team rebounded with serious speed by the end of Happy Hour on Saturday. I have yet to see Larson’s odds yet but I would imagine he will be overvalued as always. Still, Larson has proved that he can get around the Magic Mile with 2 runner-up finishes in 2017 and has shown some positive signs with the long run speed thus far.

I am sure most people would not consider Kyle Larson a dark horse because is widely considered one of the sports biggest talents. Therefore, let me throw two additional names into the dark horse category by the way of Ryan Blaney and Erik Jones. As mentioned earlier, Team Penske has looked really good this weekend and Blaney posted the best 10 lap average in final practice. Furthermore, Blaney had the best overall average speed among all drivers in final practice as well. In my opinion, the #12 was among the best cars and provides some upside in terms of value. Meanwhile, Erik Jones was also impressive among the less popular names. After leading all drivers in 5/10/15 lap averages in the opening practice on Saturday, Jones backed up the speed again in Happy Hour with lap times that were on par with the leaders. Therefore, he is another guy that deserves some consideration if nothing else.

Drivers to Fade

There are certain drivers that you simply should never fade unless you are absolutely sure of your handicapping decision. For the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301, I will be going against the grain by recommending everyone to fade Chase Elliott. Normally, Elliott is one of those drivers that you simply do not fade because he gets the best of his equipment. However, I did not see anything in practices that led me to believe the #9 team could reach the level of competitiveness that they are accustomed to running. Elliott’s best run at New Hampshire was a 5th place finish last year. Before that Elliott had failed to crack the top 10 in 4 prior starts. Therefore, I don’t think this is Elliott’s best track and more importantly the team has struggled since unloading on Friday.

Out of the top 12 drivers that I mapped out lap times, Elliott was 11th of 12th. The 12th place guy was Joey Logano but his lap times were actually not as bad as they seemed because Logano stayed on old tires the majority of final practice. Even with that being said, Elliott was on average 2-3 tenths of the pace compared to the mean of those top 12 drivers. As a result, I think we have enough evidence to issue a rare full fade alert on the #9 car. In fact, I think we have enough evidence to fade most of the Hendrick Motorsports cars. I mentioned that both William Byron and Alex Bowman had to move to backup machines. Bowman missed the entire final practice after crashing the backup car in final practice. The team had to unload the #48 backup car to prepare it for tomorrow’s race. Bowman was already struggling before the wreck and now will have the luxury of unloading a completely new car without any practice laps. Meanwhile, Byron has not shown speed all weekend finishing outside the top 20 in all practice sessions. So apparently all of the Hendrick Motorsports cars shown reasons to fade ahead of Sunday’s main event.

Practice Data

Average Speed for Happy Hour (cool down/warm-up laps excluded)

	Avg. Speed	Laps
Ryan Blaney	131.55	28
Kyle Busch	131.41	40
Kevin Harvick	131.30	42
Erik Jones	131.30	28
Brad Keselowski	131.26	48
Kyle Larson	131.22	32
Clint Bowyer	131.19	32
Martin Truex	131.09	38
Denny Hamlin	131.07	39
Kurt Busch	130.69	44
Chase Elliott	130.65	38
Joey Logano	130.35	37

2019 Draftkings Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Optimal Lineup

2019 Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Race Picks

*Final

Ryan Blaney +1000 (1 unit)
Kevin Harvick +800 (1.25 units)
Erik Jones +2200 (.5 unit)
Kyle Larson +3000 (.5 unit) *early play

Two Team Parlays

Christopher Bell +100 wins ROXOR 200 (won)
Kyle Busch +275 wins Foxwoods Resort Casino 301
Risking 1.25 units to win: +815

Martin Truex Jr +475 wins Foxwoods Resort Casino 301
Austin Dillon +125 over Matt Dibenedetto
Risking 1 unit to win: +1190

H2H Match-Ups

Denny Hamlin -125 over Chase Elliott (2 units)
Erik Jones -130 over Aric Almirola (2 units)
Daniel Suarez -140 over Alex Bowman (2 units)