Coke Zero 400 Early Preview
NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Last week, I broke down a full preview of my expectations for each series prior to Chicagoland Speedway. The results were rather ideal with cashes in every race including a monster hit on Sunday with half unit play on Alex Bowman at 45-1 odds. The overall net result was a combined 30 plus units of profit for the weekend as we finally have gained some momentum on this tough 2019 season. As we look to keep the momentum going, I thought it would be beneficial to look ahead at next week’s races at Daytona to discuss early thoughts and strategy. In fact, strategy will likely be the most important factor to keep in mind for superspeedway racing at Daytona.
2019 Circle K Firecracker 250 Preview
When most people think of July 4th weekend in Daytona, obviously the Coke Zero 400 jumps out as the main event. However, the Firecracker 250 is a historic event that has produced just as much excitement in recent years. From a betting standpoint, Friday night’s Firecracker 250 provides an opportunistic betting opportunity. The superspeedway races from Daytona and Talladega always produce generous odds because of the parity this type of racing provokes. However in the current scope of the Xfinity Series, I think it provides even greater opportunities. The “Big 3” of Cole Custer, Christopher Bell, and Tyler Reddick have won the last 9 Xfinity Series races to clearly separate from the rest of the competition in one of the most impressive runs in Xfinity Series history by a group of regulars in the series. However, the “Big 3” are not exactly what I would call overwhelming superspeedway talents and there will be plenty of drivers looking to take advantage of that factor just as Michael Annett did at Daytona back in February when he scored his 1st career victory.
From an entry list standpoint, we do not have any major Cup Series stars on the entry list which is extremely rare for this race. Instead we have former Cup Series driver AJ Allmendinger who will make his return in the #10 with Kaulig Racing. Besides Allmendinger, the majority of the part-time entries are young talents including the likes of Riley Herbst in the #18, Joe Graf Jr in the #21, and Sheldon Creed gets his first Xfinity Series start in the #8 for JR. Motorsports. Therefore from the entry list standpoint, we really don’t have any overwhelming favorites that warrant any overwhelming attention. Instead, we should continue to expect parity and favorable betting odds among the intermediate threats which is encouraging.
One thing to keep in mind is that this race has favored track position in the last few years. I know track position is not something that you typically hear at Daytona but this is a different age of superspeedway racing. In recent years, we have not seen the big pack of drafting that a lot of people associate with the likes of Daytona and Talladega. In fact back in February, we saw single file racing from the beginning of stage 1 until very late in the race. Therefore if drivers can stay in that first 1-2 group of cars, they can remain within striking distance. It’s not like the old days when you got shuffled out of line and dropped 20 spots. So track position has a lot more value and that is why we have seen 5 of the last winners, at Daytona in the Xfinity Series, start from the top 10 starting spots.
I will be looking for fast cars that have the best opportunity to keep that track position and then obviously consider who I believe are the better superspeedway drivers when ultimately deciding who to add to my lineup this week. Obviously this style of racing can produce many winners but I don’t believe there are any talents that really stand out as guys that can just get at the front and hold the field at bay throughout the entire race. We can only assume the talents that should earn that track position to be within striking distance in the closing laps. Therefore, this will likely be a race where we take several drivers in futures bets while downsizing our risk per bet. By doing so, our risk remains small but our added bets (compared to normal weekends) provides more winning probability towards our plays.
2019 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Preview
Saturday night’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 will be many drivers best opportunity to steal a victory and earn an automatic berth in the Chase. As it currently stands, popular names like Kyle Larson, Jimmie Johnson, Daniel Suarez, Clint Bowyer, Erik Jones, and Ryan Newman are all among drivers fighting to make the top 16 on points. All of those drivers are separated by just 40 points from 13th to 18th place in the point standings. Therefore, Daytona could be a very important race for opportunity or simply survival in terms of the playoff watch. Meanwhile guys like Austin Dillon, Chris Buescher, Paul Menard, and others are so far outside the cutoff line, they likely need a victory to secure their playoff hopes.
Historically the July Daytona race has provided more upset potential than the Daytona 500. In the last 5 races, there have been 3 sizeable underdog victories from Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Aric Almirola, and last year’s Coke Zero 400 winner Erik Jones who secured the 1st win of his career by breaking through at Daytona. I remember hitting Jones as a winner last year with a ½ size play at +3850. You may ask was that luck or was that skill? I would answer by saying a combination of both. I had noticed that Jones had several quality runs at the superspeedway races at least to the point where he was able to maintain track position at the front of the field throughout long periods of time. When I saw the near 40-1 odds, I just really liked the value and was lucky enough to have things work out.
However it is that type of thinking that is needed at Daytona. Handicapping Daytona is not always about looking at previous wins or even finishing positions. I really like to look at drivers that consistently run towards the front of the field because that is a trend that seems to have more cause and effect. If a driver can continuously put their self in position at Daytona, they are likely going to eventually get a victory. A prime example is when I was reviewing Daytona loop data for the last 5 Daytona races, I was surprised to see that Ryan Blaney and Alex Bowman were the two highest rated drivers at Daytona over the last 5 events. Neither Blaney or Bowman has won at the superspeedway tracks but our data says they have put themselves in position on several occasions so these two drivers should at least be considered when odds are released especially if significant value exists.
Another couple of names that jumped out of the loop data include the likes of Michael McDowell and Paul Menard. Michael McDowell has surprisingly posted the 6th best overall driver rating (80.8) over the last 5 Daytona races and Menard is closely behind at 79.8. Again neither of these two names are drivers that I would normally consider upfront for long shots at Daytona. While I am obviously not advocating immediately bets simply from loop data, I do believe we should play closer attention to these types of trends when we are evaluating overall value and betting odds this week. The greatest thing you can do at Daytona in terms of a betting lineup is ensure you are getting the best risk/reward value possible. Because the risk is relatively high for striking out, you want to make sure the odds for the drivers that do make your lineup are worthy of producing a high reward which is exactly why I am mentioning names like Blaney, McDowell, Bowman, and Menard as potential long shots that have shown some solid trends for running upfront.
By now in the Cup Series, we know who are the best superspeedway drivers. Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, and even Jimmie Johnson have results that cannot be undermined. However we also know that those drivers are usually limited in potential from an odds standpoint. So if we want to take some of those favorites, it may be a waiting game to see if we can find any type of indicator of who has the fastest cars when the field unloads on Thursday. Practices are normally not any type of indicator of superspeedway speed in terms of lap times. However, we can get an idea if teams have good handling cars which is important in the July race at Daytona. If one of these favorites unload a car that is not handling good, perhaps that is a bigger indicator to stay away rather than their position on the speed charts. Therefore we will keep an eye on how things unfold on Thursday in opening practices and evaluate the odds throughout the week before finalizing our official lineup. Be sure to check back this week as we look to keep the momentum going with another winning weekend!
Handicapping Strategy
We have worked hard over the last few weeks at some favorable handicapping tracks to nail winners, take advantage of H2H bets, and even exploit prop bets. At Sonoma and Chicagoland, I hit 7 of 9 H2H bets and two different top 5 prop bets totaling 20 units of profit alone. Those races were really favorable for handicappers because we could differentiate driver talent, long run speed, and even team momentum. This week things will completely change to the opposite end of the spectrum. Daytona is the ultimate wildcard that requires more luck than normal from a handicapping standpoint. Because of the chaos of superspeedway racing, we don’t need to over saturate our betting cards with overvalued bets.
Nearly all H2H bets are a coin flip and it is easy to place too many bets because of advantageous superspeedway odds. Therefore, I believe everyone should approach this race with an extremely low risk strategy. I will likely have a lot of half size unit plays and maybe even smaller for the extreme long shots. I highly doubt I will take any H2H plays unless it is a parlay attempt. I don’t believe bettors should get caught up in all of the appetizing odds because it is not a good long term strategy for superspeedways. However, I don’t necessarily think it’s a bad idea to sprinkle a few small plays on high yielding prop bets like the Top 5 bets that I have been fortunate enough to cash in recent weeks but overall the risk should remain low.
