2019 Camping World 225 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander Outdoors Truck Series Betting Predictions
Friday June 28th, 9:10PM (EST) at Chicagoland Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

A full weekend of racing starts tonight when the Gander Outdoors Truck Series steps into the bright lights of Chicagoland Speedway for the running of the Camping World 225. Tonight’s Truck Series event will mark the first of 3 straight days of racing among NASCAR’s top series meaning numerous betting opportunities await. Last week, Ross Chastain earned a hard fought vengeance style victory at Gateway to become eligible for the Truck Series playoffs. Chastain has become the “guy” in the Truck Series in recent weeks with 2 victories in the last 5 races; including the disqualification at Iowa that would have resulted in a 3rd victory during that stretch. Tonight Chastain looks for another opportunity to showcase his talent but a tough Chicagoland Speedway could bring different drivers towards the front of the field. Find out our thoughts as we provide our 2019 Camping World 225 race picks for Chicagoland!

I mentioned in my 2019 Chicagoland Preview that Chicagoland Speedway typically brings out the best driving talents at the front of the field. The surface is extremely bumpy, rigid, and lacks grip. Therefore, drivers can make a lot of difference at Chicagoland by wrestling the truck through the turns, finding grip through the multiple racing grooves, and ultimately saving tires for optimal long run speed. I would normally say that is good news for Ross Chastain who has become a polarizing figure in the Truck Series in recent weeks. However, I still believe Chastain’s equipment is still a few levels behind the top guys and that typically shows at the bigger 1.5 mile surfaces. Chastain does have a win on a 1.5 mile surface but that come at Kansas in a race that was primarily a product of drafting and never lifting off the throttle. Tonight’s race at Chicagoland will be completely different as the setup in the truck and ability to maintain speed several laps into green flag runs will be extremely important.

I would not recommend fading Chastain by any means as I still believe he is the top talent in the series. I just don’t trust him as a strong betting option tonight for the outright victory. I jumped on Stewart Friesen at openers because I thought this track would be an ideal fit for the #52 team based on their performance this season. As a driver, Friesen is best on the 1.5 mile tracks and has shown really good long run speed for the majority of the season. I am pretty satisfied with taking Friesen at the early number because I thought he was among the top 2-3 trucks in Thursday’s 3 practice sessions. The best truck that emerged from Thursday’s practices was Brett Moffitt which is a little surprising because the #24 team has not exactly met expectations this season. On Thursday, the #24 truck unloaded extremely well and posted a top 4 fast lap in each practice session. However it was the long run speed that really caught my attention. After 4-5 laps, Moffitt was really fast and did not show the level of fall of speed like other trucks. Considering lap times will drop off in the neighborhood of 2 seconds from the start to end of green flag runs, long run speed will likely be the key to victory and the #24 team appears to have the best long run speed.

There were a few other drivers that exceeded expectations from a practices perspective. I thought Ben Rhodes had good speed which will make the #99 a force at some point in tonight’s race. Rhodes does not seem to have the elite takeoff speed like the top trucks but definitely has good “race speed.” I imagine the #99 truck will hold some fantasy value for that reason especially if he does not qualify in the first few rows. I thought Grant Enfinger had really good takeoff speed but really struggled on the long runs. Matt Crafton was also decent but we never really got to see the #88 truck on a long run. Crafton actually missed all of final practice due to an engine change and will be starting at the rear of the field in tonight’s race. Therefore, I am a little uncertain on what to expect from the #88 team this evening.

Drivers to Fade

On the other side of the spectrum, there were a few trucks that definitely struggled in Thursday’s practices which may be worth fading in the form of betting match-ups. Johnny Sauter was the biggest name that struggled on Thursday in the #13 truck for Thorsport Racing. Sauter was 15th and 16th fastest in the opening two sessions on Thursday. The #13 truck jumped up to the #2 spot in final practice but I think that late rally may be misleading. Sauter’s lap times in race trim were not on the same level as the leaders and it seemed to get worse the longer into the run. I am sure the #13 team will make some overnight adjustments but it simply was not a good sign. Now before we fade Sauter on all fronts, I think it is important to keep in mind that he is a former winner (2017) at Chicagoland and is also one of the better drivers in the series. So he checks off a lot of boxes as far as what I would typically target, so we may only want to fade the #13 truck if we are getting a fair price and against the correct drivers like Moffitt/Friesen.

Another driver that will be worth fading is the #4 truck of Todd Gilliland. This track layout and style of racing does not favor Gilliland in any type of way. I knew this going into the week and faded the #4 in a match-up against Brandon Jones at openers and I am still confident in that bet as long as Jones can stay out of trouble. The #4 truck struggled tremendously in practices and I honestly don’t know if it is a truck issue or driver issue; most likely it is a combination of both. Either way, the #4 truck did not have good long run speed and struggled with nearly every run on the track. Therefore if you have not made any early bets in the form of H2H match-ups, I would still advise fading the #4 if you can get a solid betting price.

	Avg. Speed	Laps
Stewart Friesen	171.59	16
Brett Moffitt	171.46	19
Ben Rhodes	171.04	24
Harrison Burton	170.69	17
Sheldon Creed	170.54	23
Johnny Sauter	170.49	26
Brandon Jones	170.42	24
Ross Chastain	170.25	32
Grant Enfinger	170.00	37
Todd Gilliland	169.55	23

2019 Draftkings Camping World 225 Betting Predictions

I am waiting to finalize my Draftkings lineup after qualifying on Friday which will take place at 5:00PM (EST). However, I do want to discuss a few drivers that are on my radar that could be used for both fantasy and H2H betting purposes. In Draftkings a few value drivers that I am keeping on my radar includes Tyler Ankrum and Anthony Alfredo. Alfredo posted the fastest lap in the final two sessions on Thursday and appears to have some solid speed in the #15 truck. Alfredo has made just 6 starts this year in the Truck Series but has seemingly improved with nearly every start while posting finishes of 8th, 12th, and 12th in his last 3 starts. Therefore, he is definitely a young talent that is starting to gain some traction.

After a pair of disastrous outings with NEMCO Motorsports, Tyler Ankrum returns to the #17 truck this week with DGR-Crosley and appears to have the same speed shown from teammate Anthony Alfredo. Ankrum posted the 2nd best 10 lap average of the 14 trucks that ran 10 consecutive laps in practice and was obviously solid with each on-track appearance. Therefore I think the DGR-Crosley teammates have hit on something this week and pose some value for guys to watch going into tonight’s event. One additional name I would like to add in terms of value or H2H match-ups includes the #2 truck of Sheldon Creed. I was extremely impressed with Creed’s long run speed in practices and thought he was a borderline top 5 truck overall. After finishes of 6th, 6th, and 7th in his last 3 starts, Creed is starting to learn how to finish races and that is reason to start paying more attention to the #2 team moving forward.

Draftkings Camping World 225 Optimal Lineup

2019 Camping World 225 Race Picks

*Final

Brett Moffitt +450 (1.5 units)
Stewart Friesen +660 (1.5 units) *early play
Sheldon Creed +2750 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Stewart Friesen +105 over Brett Moffitt *early play
Team 2 – TBA
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

Sheldon Creed +155 over Ross Chastain
Team 2 – TBA
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Brett Moffitt -140 over Grant Enfinger (2 units)
Ben Rhodes -115 over Todd Gilliland (2 units)
Brandon Jones -115 over Todd Gilliland (2 units) *early play