2019 FireKeepers Casino 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Race Picks
Sunday June 9th, 2:00PM (EST) at Michigan International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Track position will be the name of the game on Sunday afternoon when the Monster Energy Cup Series goes racing at Michigan International Speedway for the FireKeepers Casino 400. NASCAR’s new rules package has provided steady controversy throughout this year and we are setting up for another controversial style of racing on Sunday when the green flag waves in Michigan. However from a betting standpoint, there should be plenty of opportunistic betting odds on drivers that could sneak into contention if they play the track position game correctly. We discuss our expectations and ultimately provide our 2019 FireKeepers Casino 400 race picks!
The rules package for 2019 cannot get all of the blame for the circumstances that will unfold on Sunday. Michigan is the fastest track in NASCAR with a 2 mile surface that is rather lenient on tire wear. As a result, teams have always found ways to battle for track position at Michigan typically with fuel mileage races or pit strategy that involves not taking 4 tires in an effort to get out in front of the field. However the rules package with the added downforce and lower horsepower is going to complicate that recipe for success even greater.
With the less horsepower, it will be extremely difficult to pull of clean passes and often passes will be accompanied by side drafting and crossover moves that will do nothing but cost drivers valuable track position instead of moving forward in the field. These circumstances will make things extremely difficult if a driver has to work their way through the field on Sunday. We will breakdown the drivers that have speed in a few moments but let’s be clear; our betting picks will need some luck in either staying out front ahead of the pack or being in the right position in the closing laps.
With this type of racing in mind, I think it is probably a good idea to take a few extra drivers this week in sort of a restrictor plate style betting lineup. Usually at the plate races, I lower my risk per win bet but take a few more options that provide upside of my ROI. I believe that strategy will be useful on Sunday because I believe there is a good chance that a new face will be in victory lane for the first time in 2019 after tomorrow’s FireKeepers Casino 400. Michigan has a history of producing surprise winners including Kyle Larson who scored his 1st career victory at the Cup Series as recently as 2016. Therefore, I believe bettors should take a few chances on Sunday with a chance at a big payday if we are fortunate enough to cash one of those surprise stories.
From a pure speed standpoint, the Stewart-Haas Racing cars have brought their A game. The SHR cars have shown speed on certain weekends this year which has not exactly produced the greatest story on race day. We know now that the SHR cars have been trimmed out more than the competitors in previous weeks but it is important to note; SHR has been working strongly to improve their race speed. I believe the speed that we have seen throughout the weekend thus far is legit. As a result, Kevin Harvick has emerged as my overall favorite for Sunday. Harvick has been knocking on the door in terms of scoring his first win of the year and Michigan is a place where they have had great success in the past. Harvick won the most recent race at Michigan in the Consumers Energy 400 last August. From a statistical standpoint, Harvick has posted an impressive 7.5 average finishing position over his last 10 starts at Michigan and owns the best driver rating over the last 5 races at Michigan by a significant margin.
I feel like the #4 team has momentum but they have just had some mistakes in recent weeks. With the speed SHR has shown thus far, Harvick will have an excellent opportunity on Sunday. However in order to get that first victory, Harvick may have to battle his teammates for the victory. Clint Bowyer and the #14 team have been really strong this weekend. If you remember, Bowyer is the defending winner of the FireKeepers Casino 400 having won a rain-shortened race last year. I thought Bowyer was excellent in final practice and he is not a driver that typically practices very well. Bowyer usually comes to life when the green flag flies so to see the #14 so strong in practice is pretty indicative of the speed in that race car. Meanwhile, I would also throw Aric Almirola’s name into the picture as well as potential contenders from the SHR brigade. Almirola has not had the greatest performance from a season standpoint but they unloaded extremely fast on Friday and has maintained speed throughout the weekend. Almirola always has a few races each year where he flirts with a potential victory and Sunday could be one of those days.
While I believe the SHR cars have the best speed, let me reflect back to my prior arguments above. This style of racing on Sunday is likely going to neutralize speed. I really expect this race to be about track position and perhaps the drivers that can spend the least amount of time in their passing attempts which is basically what Kyle Busch did last week to win the Pocono 400. With that in mind, I am shifting some of my focus towards the better driving talents. Kyle Larson is a name that must be mentioned at Michigan. Larson won 3 races in a row at Michigan and has often excelled on the 2 mile tracks. The key for the #42 team is simply avoiding bad luck and getting the finish from their equipment. Along with Larson, I would also mention Chase Elliott as another solid option. Elliott consistently gets the best of his equipment just as he did with a 4th place result last week at Pocono. Elliott owns the best average finishing position of all drivers at Michigan with a lucrative 5.3 average result in 6 career starts. Therefore, the #9 definitely has to be on the radar as well.
Notice I have not mentioned any of the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers thus far and that is because I don’t think they have been very good so far this weekend. Honestly if you look at the JGR performance last week at Pocono, it was forgettable for everyone except Kyle Busch and the #18 team. This week the entire team has seemingly struggled except for perhaps Erik Jones. Jones is riding a wave of momentum from last week’s 3rd place finish at Pocono. Jones nearly won at Michigan as a rookie in 2017 and has shown enough speed to consider the #20 a dark horse for the 2nd straight week. Still, the rest of the JGR cars have not shown that same potential. Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin have been off in terms of race speed. Martin Truex has been decent but I don’t like Truex’s performance history at Michigan to warrant any betting attention.
FireKeepers Casino 400 Sleepers
As I said earlier, this race has “upset” written all over it. Therefore if we can identify the best sleepers for Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400, we could have an opportunity at a big payout. I will mention Aric Almirola briefly once more because I definitely believe he belongs in the “sleeper” category. Teammate Daniel Suarez also belongs in that category. Suarez got his first big win at Michigan in the Xfinity Series and was among the fastest cars in practice on Friday riding the SHR wave of momentum. Meanwhile, I think Kurt Busch and Ryan Blaney are some excellent sleeper candidates as well. The elder Busch is a 3-time Michigan winner and posted quality finishes in both of the 2018 events. Busch showed great speed in practices and is starting towards the front which should help in the track position war. Meanwhile, Ryan Blaney is part of the Ford camp that has shown speed throughout the weekend. Usually if you are going to consider Team Penske guys, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano are the first to come to your attention especially after the #22 won the pole earlier today.
However when you look at loop data, Ryan Blaney has been as strong as anyone in recent races at Michigan. The #12 team was happy with their car on Friday and were a little disappointed with the 12th place qualifying effort. Still, I don’t think the qualifying effort should deter us from the speed those Ford cars have shown this weekend and Blaney was definitely the best of Team Penske in practices. I am sure with Keselowski’s track history that he will likely be in the mix but he does not exactly fall into the “sleeper” category.
Drivers to Fade
There were definitely some surprises in qualifying earlier today. Even pole sitter Joey Logano stated that the #22 team was “shocked” at their pole winning lap after struggling in practices on Friday. We know starting upfront is beneficial at Michigan especially for this particular package. However there are a few guys starting towards the front that I don’t believe will stay there which provides us with potential betting value. One of the main drivers that I believe overachieved in qualifying is the #11 car of Denny Hamlin who will start in the 4th position. Hamlin is a two-time winner at Michigan so I don’t want to disrespect his history but this #11 team has not exactly been contending for wins in recent weeks. I mentioned my skepticism surrounding the JGR cars earlier and if the slightest notion of that statement is true; I expect Hamlin to slide backwards. Before last week’s 6th place result at Pocono, the #11 team was in the midst of significant struggles in the performance department with 4 straight finishes outside the top 15. Perhaps Hamlin will not be terrible on Sunday but I think there is a good possibility he slides outside the top 10 before the afternoon concludes.
Another driver that I have on my radar to fade in betting match-ups includes the #88 machine of Alex Bowman. I think the allure of Bowman’s hot streak has faded and the team confidence may be potentially slipping a bit as well. Bowman and the #88 team had a forgettable performance last week at Pocono with a 15th place showing. The #88 never showed any type of promising speed throughout the entire weekend and that trend has continued into Michigan. The #88 car struggled not only with speed but with handling throughout practices. It was clear the team was searching and I don’t necessarily think they fixed anything. I simply believe the 10th place qualifying effort will serve as a band-aid as their speed struggles continue when the green flag waves.
Practice Data
| Avg. Speed | Laps |
|---|
| Clint Bowyer | 186.01 | 28 |
| Erik Jones | 185.96 | 26 |
| Kevin Harvick | 185.77 | 30 |
| Kurt Busch | 185.71 | 28 |
| Aric Almirola | 185.56 | 45 |
| Ryan Blaney | 185.54 | 24 |
| Martin Truex | 185.50 | 25 |
| Daniel Suarez | 185.46 | 42 |
| Kyle Larson | 185.42 | 33 |
| Chase Elliott | 185.41 | 34 |
| Kyle Busch | 185.39 | 41 |
| Brad Keselowski | 185.24 | 41 |
| Alex Bowman | 184.94 | 42 |
| Denny Hamlin | 184.73 | 34 |
| Joey Logano | 184.67 | 42 |
| 15 Conseuctive Laps | Avg. Time |
|---|
| Aric Almirola | 38.536 |
| Daniel Suarez | 38.54 |
| Erik Jones | 38.555 |
| Kurt Busch | 38.649 |
| Kyle Busch | 38.705 |
| Brad Keselowski | 38.776 |
| Clint Bowyer | 38.796 |
| Kevin Harvick | 38.821 |
| Alex Bowman | 38.833 |
| 20 Conseuctive Laps | Avg. Time |
|---|
| Aric Almirola | 38.704 |
| Kurt Busch | 38.785 |
| Clint Bowyer | 38.787 |
| Brad Keselowski | 38.795 |
| Chase Elliott | 38.87 |
| Joey Logano | 38.964 |
| Daniel Hemric | 38.965 |
| Alex Bowman | 38.988 |
2019 FireKeepers Casino 400 Race Picks
*Final
Kyle Larson +1450 (.75 unit)
*early play
Kurt Busch +2000 (.75 unit)
Clint Bowyer +2000 (.75 unit)
Aric Almirola +3000 (.5 unit)
Daniel Suarez +4000 (.5 unit)
Austin Dillon +8800 (.25 unit)
*early play
Two Team Parlays
Tyler Ankrum +100 over Kyle Benjamin (win)
Brad Keselowski +700 wins FireKeepers Casino 400
Risking 1 unit to win:
+1500
Tyler Reddick +350 wins LTi Printing 250 (win)
Kevin Harvick +425 wins FireKeepers Casino 400
Risking .75 unit to win:
+1700
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Daniel Suarez -130 over Alex Bowman (3 units)
Kurt Busch -110 over Denny Hamlin (2 units)
Clint Bowyer +125 over Chase Elliott (2 units)
Kyle Busch +135 does not finish Top 5 (2 units)
Erik Jones +165 over Chase Elliott (1 unit)
Aric Almirola +390 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Kurt Busch +290 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Austin Dillon +850 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
