2019 SpeedyCash.com 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander Outdoors Truck Series Betting Race Picks
Friday June 7th, 9:16PM (EST) at Texas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Gander Outdoors Truck Series will kick off a full weekend of racing between all of NASCAR’s top touring series. While the Xfinity and Cup Series teams prepare for weekend racing at Michigan International Speedway, the Truck Series will wave the first green flag late Friday with the running of the SpeedyCash.com 400 at Texas Motor Speedway. Tonight’s race marks the 2nd stop for the Truck Series at Texas. Back in late March, Kyle Busch drove the #51 truck to victory lane in the Vankor 350. Tonight, long time Cup Series veteran Greg Biffle returns from retirement to step into the #51 truck for Kyle Busch Motorsports. Can the “Biff” compete for the victory in his first race back? Find out our thoughts and more as we provide our 2019 SpeedyCash.com 400 race picks!

Before we talk about drivers to target or practice observations, let’s first take a moment to discuss what we saw from the Truck Series at Texas back in March. While Kyle Busch scored the victory, I think it is very important to mention that the Vankor 350 was a pretty wild race. Track position was very important and teams consistently attempted strategy calls on pit road with 2 tire stops. The difference between 2 and 4 tires were minimal which is why teams often elected to go for track position. The draft at Texas in the Truck Series is also crucial which rarely allows trucks to get away from the front of the field and can make passing difficult at times. As dominant as Kyle Busch may have appeared on the stat sheet for the Vankor 350, he was challenged quite often at the front of the field primarily by Brett Mofitt and Stewart Friesen. Towards the end of the race, Ben Rhodes and Johnny Sauter joined the battle in what turned out to be a 5 car breakaway battle for the victory. However the point we need to remember is that several drivers will likely have a shot at this victory in the closing laps because the draft should keep things close among the top trucks.

Now that we know the type of racing to expect, we have to consider the risk factor which is elevated this week with this style of racing. I am downsizing my “win” bets to take more drivers and limit my overall risk for this race. I simply think the parity level is extremely high based on the type of racing that we will see Friday night caused by drafting and the strategy war towards track position. Therefore, I don’t want to oversaturate any of my single future bets on those risky circumstances. With that betting strategy in mind, let’s start shifting our focus towards our expectations for the SpeedyCash.com 400 and the drivers that I expect to contend for the victory!

SpeedyCash.com 400 Expectations

So far this weekend, Johnny Sauter has likely emerged as the best truck in terms of overall speed. For those unaware, Sauter is a 5-time winner at Texas Motor Speedway including victories in 3 of the last 6 races. Needless to say, he is top dog when it comes to track history. On the speed charts in Friday’s practices, Sauter consistently emerged at the top of the leaderboard. The #13 truck was 2nd fastest in the opening practice and then fastest in both practice 2 and final practice. Sauter also laid down the fastest 10 lap average in the final session with lap times that were really impressive. Based on the history and speed, I don’t think anyone can deny that the #13 is the overall favorite going into Friday.

However like I said before, we should expect a lot of contenders at the front of the field. I can think of 7-8 guys with legitimate shots at the victory and likely a few more if a strategy call settles this thing. Stewart Friesen is a respectable candidate due to his strength on the 1.5 mile surfaces this year. Friesen actually finished runner-up to Rowdy in the Vankor 350 and I think everyone believes the #52 truck is overdue for a victory. I don’t necessarily think the #52 looked great in practices but I would expect him to still race well. Brett Moffitt likely had the best truck in the March race before a late incident ruined his shot at victory. Moffitt was solid in practices and should be in contention. Likewise, I think similar arguments could be made for the likes of Grant Enfinger, Ben Rhodes, Matt Crafton, and possibly Todd Gilliland who are all potential upset candidates.

I personally believe Ben Rhodes and Grant Enfinger are legitimate dark horses. Enfinger has been fast throughout practices and honestly drivers well in the type of conditions that we will see tomorrow. Rhodes actually posted the fastest lap in the opening practice and looked really strong off the truck. Unfortunately, Rhodes got into the wall in that first practice and the team missed the other two practices as they were attempting to fix the #99 truck. Obviously, I wish the #99 truck would have got the additional practice time even though it’s definitely not a necessity. The good news for Rhodes is that the incident combined with the lack of presence in the afternoon practices will likely be good for his betting odds especially before trucks qualify tomorrow afternoon.

For those of you wondering about the “Biff”, I was not really impressed by his practice speed. We know the #51 truck obviously has speed but it was not overwhelmingly obvious in Biffle’s lap times. Biffle actually won the 5th Truck Series race ever at Texas all the way back in 2000 and was previously known as a “wheelman” that often got the best of his equipment. However, Biffle has not raced a competitive lap at the NASCAR level since the end of the 2016 season and we know from prior experience that significant gaps in seat time are not beneficial for drivers; even those with Cup Series experience. My bigger concern for Biffle is his lack of experience in these newer style trucks and the way these trucks run in race conditions. I think it would be foolish to believe Biffle figures out the moves to make to get the best out of these trucks in the draft and I expect that to be one of his biggest challenges throughout tonight’s race.

Drivers to avoid

If you are looking for some potential betting match-ups to target, let’s first discuss the drivers you should avoid. I have Sheldon Creed on my “avoid” list (in terms of futures) until he proves that he can produce a quality finish indicative of the speed he shows in practices. Creed typically fades during the 2nd half of the races and has a tough time staying out of trouble. He is another guy that has not figured out how to position himself and as a result I cannot consider him a legitimate threat.For drivers to avoid in match-ups, I believe Ross Chastain and Kyle Benjamins are drivers to fade. Chastain pulled out a huge victory back at Kansas and has consistently produced quality finishes. Meanwhile, Kyle Benjamin is a notable name that has made some high profile starts for Joe Gibbs Racing in the Xfinity Series. The problem I have with both of these guys is that I simply don’t believe in the equipment. Niece Motorsports has not exactly produced a ton of speed though Chastain has proved that he can provide quality results with sheer talent. However, none of the Niece Motorsports trucks looked good on Thursday and it’s pretty obvious they are lacking speed. If that indicator proves to be true, you may find value fading these relatively popular drivers.

2019 SpeedyCash.com 400 Race Picks

*Final

Brett Moffitt +475 (1.5 units)
Matt Crafton +880 (1 unit)
Ben Rhodes +1400 (.75 unit)
Grant Enfinger +2250 (.5 unit) *early play

Two Team Parlays

Johnny Sauter +190 wins SpeedyCash.com 400
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

Tyler Ankrum +100 over Kyle Benjamin
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Stewart Friesen +110 over Greg Biffle (2 units)