In one week, NASCAR’s Monster Energy Cup Series will set their sights on the high banks of Talladega Superspeedway. As we all know, Talladega is the ultimate opportunistic race and allows nearly all drivers a chance at victory. For some drivers, that victory could be season defining, season turning, or simply just another feather in the cap for many of the guys that have already secured their positions in the Chase at season’s end. Before we look forward to Talladega, the first off weekend of the season is among us. As we take this brief break in racing this weekend, I thought it would be a great time to discuss what we have witnessed through the first 9 races of the year. For fun, let’s throw our spin on things and present our NASCAR Spring Break Superlatives.
Early MVP: Kyle Busch
The early season MVP is incredibly obvious with the start Kyle Busch has posted through the first several races in 2019. Busch’s stats are simply incredible. Rowdy has 3 victories, 6 Top 5 finishes, and has finished in the Top 10 in every race. Busch’s 9 straight Top 10 finishes is the best streak to start a season in NASCAR history eclipsing Terry Labonte’s streak of 8 straight in 1992. Even if we throw out the statbook, Busch’s performances in 2019 is simply remarkable. He has 10 victories across all 3 series and while I understand we are speaking specifically towards the Cup Series; Busch is the best driver in the sport and is posting the best results of his career. Surely, we should not expect anything to change with the driver nor the team as JGR has also amassed wins in 6 of the first 9 races of the season. As long as that trend continues with speed from the JGR cars, the #18 will remain a weekly threat for victories.
Best Team: Joe Gibbs Racing/Team Penske
I know the stats suggest that JGR has tallied the most success this season with 6 victories in 9 races. However, I look at Team Penske as equally strong in terms of their start in 2019. Brad Keselowski has scored two victories (Atlanta and Martinsville), Joey Logano scored a win at Las Vegas, and Ryan Blaney has been close on several occasions. Let’s also not forget Logano has two additional runner-up finishes as well. It’s pretty clear that the JGR/Team Penske cars have adapted well to the new rules package and additionally have provided very fast short track packages as well. They are unloading fast cars every week and have created some separation in terms of team performance from the rest of the competition.
Biggest Disappointment: Kyle Larson
Let’s forget the fact that Kyle Larson has probably been the most overbet driver in the Cup Series for the last 3 years and that often his odds are overvalued. Instead, let’s simply talk about the performance factor during 2019. Kyle Larson has posted just two Top 10 finishes and has led laps in just one race all season when he led a race high 142 back at Atlanta. I think several people including myself expected Larson to contend at Fontana due to his success at the 2 mile ovals. Not only was Larson not a factor at Fontana, he was also a non-factor at both Martinsville and Bristol. The latter being extremely surprising with his great track record in Thunder Valley. The #42 has crashed out in 2 of the last 3 races and currently sits 19th in the standings. This team has dug an early season hole that will be difficult to recover from without a victory. Yet for some reason, we continue to believe Larson is a top tier driver based on talent along. The problem is that results are not a result of talent and this #42 team is clearly behind the competition.
Biggest Surprise: Ryan Blaney
I alluded to Team Penske’s success above and one of the most pleasant surprises to the 2019 season has been the performance of Ryan Blaney. Not only has Ryan Blaney been the biggest surprise in 2019 but is also a big surprise the #12 has yet to win a race. Blaney has finished in the Top 5 in 4 of the last 6 races and he led several laps at Texas before overheating issues ended his day. Simply put, the #12 car is performing at a winning level. If they can keep this pace, it is only a matter of time before Blaney scores a victory especially with Kansas, Charlotte, and Pocono on the horizon.
Next Underdog Winner: Clint Bowyer
There could be a big winner next week at Talladega considering the unpredictable nature of “plate tracks” despite the fact restrictor plates actually no longer apply. For races following Talladega, I believe the next driver to score a victory at big odds will likely be Clint Bowyer. The #14 team has been one of the most consistent front-runners in the field in recent weeks and their performance has been flying under the radar. The #14 team has not practiced extremely well, they have had qualifying drama, but continue to race upfront with the leaders. Bowyer has posted finishes of 7th, 2nd, 7th, and 3rd in the last 4 races and in all honesty; has performed even better than those finishing positions when compared to his driver rating over those 4 events. I know Bowyer does not have the greatest win percentage but keep in mind this is the same team that won 2 races in 2018. I have a feeling another win could be coming and the good news for bettors is that Bowyer continues to provide great value from odds makers on a nearly weekly basis.
Biggest Fantasy Value: Daniel Suarez
Another driver that has been performing very well under the radar includes Daniel Suarez and the #41 team. Suarez has posted 3 top 10 finishes in the last 4 races including an impressive 3rd place finish at Texas after qualifying in the 4th position. In the last 3 races, Suarez has produced 50 plus points for Draftkings fantasy owners which is the best of any driver under $8,000 in salary price. In fact, Suarez has been one of the most consistent fantasy drivers in recent weeks in terms of points gained and should be considered in the weeks moving forward with a rather affordable price tag among the intermediate drivers.
