NASCAR Betting Preview
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Yesterday’s Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 was the long awaited debut of the 2019 rules package that will predominantly be seen throughout the year in the Cup Series at tracks over 1 mile in length. Shortly after Brad Keselowski took the checkered flag for his 2nd Atlanta win in the last 3 years, Team Penske owner Roger Penske stated “Overall, I felt today was a solid B. Nobody gets an A on their first exam” when asked to give his thought on the new rules package. Obviously Penske’s grade is likely elevated due to the fact that one of his cars took home the victory. However, the differences in opinions following Sunday’s race varied throughout the garage and I wanted to chime in on the debate that will likely carry on throughout the year.
If you follow my twitter account, I did not waste any time throwing out my two cents after the checkered flag fell on Sunday. I personally disliked the package but I honestly had made that decision before the race began. What I saw on Sunday unfortunately confirmed my fears. In my opinion, this new package has taken a lot of the talent out of the drivers hands. As a race fan that grew up around dirt tracks, I have bigger appreciation geared towards driver ability and feel like this package is going against that particular narrative. It seems that the setup combination along with track position are the ultimate premiums under this new package rather than driver input
Track position was glaringly obvious on Sunday. Kyle Larson led the most laps, got hit with a speeding penalty, and it took him nearly 100 laps to crack back into the top 10. We saw similar struggles with Aric Almirola and Kyle Busch who both had strong cars early in the race. Almirola was hit with a speeding penalty while Busch cut a tire but remained on the lead lap with minimum damage. It took both drivers seemingly forever to work their way back up through the field. For the likes of Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson to struggle with passing with extremely fast cars, tells you all you need to know about the difficulty in making up ground against the competition.
NASCAR’s intent with this new package was to slow the cars down, add a ton of drag and downforce that would punch bigger holes in the air, and manipulate the air flow around the nose of the cars to influence more side by side racing. The good news is that we saw a ton of side by side racing on Sunday which was fun to watch at times. However if you paid closer attention, the cars were very sensitive to momentum. With the decrease in horsepower due to the tapered spacers, drivers had to stay in the throttle as much as possible. If a driver lifted as a product of that side by side racing, their momentum was literally killed. If a driver attempted a pass and did not clear a competitor, well that just meant it would take another 1-2 laps to regain momentum and hopefully get the pass on the next attempt. In hindsight, the lack of horsepower is probably the biggest disadvantage to cars trying to race their way back towards the front. You simply cannot afford to get out of the throttle or the amount of ground lost is too costly.
Even with those concerns, the race was still entertaining. Atlanta Motor Speedway rarely disappoints because the tire wear presents a great dilemma between short and long run speed. I think this week’s race at Las Vegas will probably give us a better understanding of the package in its entirety. With a more smooth surface, I imagine drivers will be able to stay in the throttle more often and momentum will be extremely important. Perhaps drafting will be a bigger component to this weekend’s race. Drafting was something that NASCAR intended to influence with this package but we saw little effects at Atlanta. Atlanta’s abrasive surface could have made drafting more difficult because drivers were more throttle sensitive later in runs. For this week’s race at Vegas, drafting could have a bigger impact if teams are able to stay close to “wide open” like expected.
So what does all this mean from a betting perspective? Well my thoughts towards the increase in parity at the Cup Series have not wavered since the new rules package was first announced. Based on these new observations, I think we will continue to see more drivers compete with the top drivers in the sport. We saw the likes of Daniel Hemric and Ryan Preece race inside the top 10 for the 2nd half of the race last Sunday. In no way do I discredit Hemric or Preece’s talent but you cannot convince me that those drivers were outdriving Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson in their 1st Cup Series start at Atlanta. Therefore, this package is going to give more drivers opportunities to challenge for victories especially if the horsepower is not increased because track position remains the ultimate premium.
While these races appear “wide open” in context, I still think we can lean towards the Fords for betting reliability over the next few weeks. The Stewart-Haas Racing Fords dominated the early days of practices at Atlanta and I had those guys pegged as the cars to beat going into the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. In fact, I took 3 SHR drivers in H2H match-ups and was lucky enough to pull out the full sweep in match-ups. However, the Fords that really shined on Sunday come from the Team Penske stable.
Before Keselowski took the checkered flag, both Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney had moments where it appeared they may win the race. Logano took the lead on the final restart before he starting falling back with a loose wheel. Meanwhile, Blaney overcame a 29th starting spot to lead 41 laps during the 2nd half of the race. Blaney, like Logano, also suffered late race tire trouble which set the #12 team back to a 22nd place finish. However, it could be easily argued that Team Penske was the best Fords on the track on Sunday. Either way, Ford teams and drivers looked to have the edge on the competition and that is something we should keep in mind moving forward.
