2018 Draftkings Gander Outdoors 400 Race Predictions

2018 Draftkings Gander Outdoors 400 Race Predictions
NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview at Pocono Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Last week our first Draftkings lineup of the season pulled through with a profitable debut. One of our early intermediate selections last week, by way of Kurt Busch, actually won the pole, led 94 laps, and ultimately became the highest fantasy scorer of the week with 82 points in Draftkings to help secure our first cash of the season. This week our focus shifts from the flat 1.058 mile at Loudon to the 2.5 mile Tricky Triangle at Pocono Raceway. Once again we take this time to lock in our early lineup based on handicapping trends that we feel will be valuable on race day. Take a look as we provide our 2018 Draftkings Gander Outdoors 400 race predictions!

Last week my main focus heading into the weekend at Loudon was to focus on the drivers. I simply feel like New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a driver’s racetrack and the strategy was to stack our lineups with drivers that would get the best of their equipment. This week the strategy changes a bit as we put a higher focus on raw speed. Pocono is a place where overall speed is extremely important because of the immense size of the track and long straightaways. Having the correct balance on the setup at both ends of the track and having speed will be the biggest benefactors for drivers/teams this week seeking to run upfront. Luckily we also have some recent data to contemplate following last month’s first stop at the Tricky Triangle in the Pocono 400. Therefore we have plenty of information from the season and last month’s initial run at Pocono to gauge the best early fantasy racing plays for the Gander Outdoors 400.

My top fantasy pick this week will be Brad Keselowski for obvious reasons. Keselowski has been great at Pocono with 6 straight top 5 finishes. In a few of those trips including last June, the #2 team was not exactly performing well but Keselowski still produced a great run. This is just a great track for Bad Brad and it helps that Team Penske has been making gains in recent weeks. The speed from the #2 team specifically has been much better in recent races and I think that indicates another promising run for Keselowski. Another reason, I like Brad is because he is still the cheaper option among the rest of the favorites that is capable of producing the same amount of points. Therefore, we can take a favorite and still save some salary cap which would not be the case with Truex, Harvick, or Busch.

Speaking of the favorites, I will pull the trigger on Kevin Harvick again this week. I did not have Harvick on my initial fantasy lineup last week but I became very strong on the #4 car following practices which ended up helping me cash an 11-1 parlay in the Foxwoods 301. This week I think we should go ahead and lock Harvick in to all early fantasy lineups. In terms of raw “speed”, the #4 team has been best this year even among the “Big 3.” Back in June, “Happy” led the most laps (89) and brought home a 4th place finish equating to his 4th straight top 5 at Pocono. Despite the strong runs in recent races, Harvick has not been able to seal the deal in terms of a victory. In fact, Harvick has never won on the Tricky Triangle. Still, I don’t think that should deter anyone from backing the #4 based on his form and recent success at Pocono. Even if Harvick falls short again in terms of a victory, I don’t think anyone would be unhappy if he was able to duplicate the 78 fantasy points that he produced here last race.

With two favorites locked into our lineups, we must start complete the remainder of our lineup with value plays in terms of salary. One of my biggest salary cap reliefs this week will be Ty Dillon at $5500. Dillon has produced strong results at this track for a bottom tier driver. If you have kept up with Dillon’s career, he has been really good in the lower series on the bigger surfaces like Pocono and Indianapolis. From a speed standpoint, Dillon’s #13 team does not have the horsepower to have any type of Cinderella performance. However if we are talking about pure fantasy points, Dillon usually gets the best of his equipment at Pocono with an average starting position of 28.6 and an average finishing position of 19.80 in 5 career starts. Dillon has actually finished better than his starting position in all 5 starts which provides some promising place differential opportunity.

Aside from Dillon if you are looking for lower range salary options under $8,000, I have my eye on targets like Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Ryan Newman and Paul Menard. For Newman, he had a great run last week at Loudon with a 6th place finish. Newman has always performed pretty well at Pocono despite having mediocre cars over the last several years and has been consistently. Paul Menard seems to be performing better at every track this season as the entire #21 team continues to show speed each week. Lastly, Stenhouse climbs up my radar this week as another driver that will probably not qualify extremely well but could easily end up with a top 15 finish.

Even if I choose the highest cap option with Stenhouse, I still have the possibility of closing out my lineup with guys like Erik Jones and Aric Almirola who have a lot of momentum at the moment. Almirola may be nearing the brink of winning a race soon of the #10 team keeps on progressing. He was close last week at Loudon and was really strong back at Chicago. Add last month’s 7th place finish at Pocono to that streak and the #10 is justifiably becoming a hot fantasy option. Likewise, Erik Jones is emerging as a trendy fantasy option. The #20 team has been showing strong speed each week. I was really disappointed in their results last week at Loudon after a pair of really strong practices. However, I am not giving up yet on the young talent as I expect this to be a great bounce back option at another track that suits his driving style.