2017 Active Pest Control 200 Race Predictions

2017 Active Pest Control 200 Race Predictions
NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Preview
Saturday March 4th, 4:30PM (EST) at Atlanta Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Following today’s Xfinity Series race, the Camping World Truck Series will take center stage as they cap off a double header with the running of the Active Pest Control 200 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Among those taking center stage will be Cup Series’ stars Chase Elliott and Kyle Busch who will lead a 200 mile journey in search of victory lane. However, there are several other Truck Series drivers from veterans to rookies who are looking to steal the spotlight this afternoon. Take a look as we preview today’s Truck Series race and provide our 2017 Active Pest Control 200 race predictions!

Today’s race should be pretty intriguing from several different angles. We have two heavily favored Cup Series drivers that most expect to win on one hand. On the other hand, we have seen very promising speed from veterans like Johnny Sauter and Matt Crafton along with impressive speeds from several young talents that are looking to make a bigger name for themselves. Obviously, the law of probability favors Kyle Busch who is just 5 wins away from tying Ron Hornaday’s record of 51 wins in the Camping World Truck Series. Rowdy has won 34.5% of his 133 career starts in the Truck Series and more importantly has won 4 of his 8 starts in the series at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Therefore, Busch is the undeniable overall favorite to win today’s event at just +140 odds courtesy of Bovada.

Fellow Cup Series driver Chase Elliott is expected to be Rowdy’s biggest challenger. I don’t think anybody would deny Elliott’s talent especially at his home track. However, Elliott has limited Truck Series experience with just 10 career starts that has totaled 1 victory and 6 top 5 finishes. Depending on how you want to look at things, Elliott may be the better option at near 4-1 odds. Elliott posted the fastest lap in final practice while Busch was outside of the top 15. Still, Elliott’s history and lack of wins make his value debatable. One of the rather surprising notes from Friday’s practices is the fact that neither Busch nor Elliott looked very strong on long run speed.

Due to Atlanta’s rugged surface and rapid tire fall off, we would expect veteran drivers to be the best in race trim. However in consecutive lap speed based on 10 lap averages, the likes of rookie Chase Briscoe, Christopher Bell, Johnny Sauter, and Matt Crafton were on top of the charts. Crafton won this race in 2015 and he has been historically very strong on the 1.5 mile tracks in recent years. From a practice speeds standpoint, Chase Briscoe and Christopher Bell seemed to have the best speed. I warned everyone last week that Briscoe was going to be the rookie to watch this year and he will get his chance to showcase his true talent today. Bell is the other name that I expect big things from this year and he was 2nd to Briscoe in 10 lap averages in final practice.

I could easily see any of those 4 drivers contending with Busch and Elliott this afternoon for the victory. I actually think Sauter is a very sneaky play that has some upside. Despite not having any Atlanta wins to his resume, Sauter was very happy with his truck on Friday especially with long run speed which is very important at Atlanta even in this new segment format that will be broken up on laps 40, 80, and 130. Outside of the contenders, there are several other drivers that have piqued my interest. Austin Dillon is suiting up for this event along with Alex Bowman and Regan Smith who are making special guest appearances. All 3 of those drivers have a considerable amount of Cup Series experience. However, Smith and Dillon are driving for underfunded teams and have not shown threatening speed. Bowman is in decent equipment and has shown decent speed. I just don’t think he has what it takes to beat the talent ahead of him in what will be just his 2nd career start in the Truck Series.

Meanwhile guys like Noah Gragson and John Hunter Nemechek are flying completely under the radar. JHN won this race a year ago in surprising fashion and finished 4th in final practice. Nemechek may not have another win up his sleeve but I do think he can run towards the front this afternoon to possibly hang out in the latter part of the top 10. Camping World Truck Series Noah Gragson is looking to rebound from last week’s first lap wreck at Daytona. Gragson is the other young guy that I predicted would have a strong rookie campaign. Gragson has been fast in every practice thus far and could bring some sneaky H2H value in the lower tier matchups.

Bovada – The most trusted book for U.S players!

2017 Active Pest Control 200 Race Predictions

Christopher Bell +800 (1.25 units)
Johnny Sauter +875 (1 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Busch +110 wins Rinnai 250
Kyle Busch +135 wins Active Pest Control 200
Risking 1 unit to win: +395

H2H Matchups

John Hunter Nemechek -130 over Regan Smith (2 units)
Johnny Sauther +135 over Matt Crafton (1 unit)