2016 Federated Auto Parts 400 Race Predictions

2016 Federated Auto Parts 400 Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Saturday September 10th, 1:20PM (EST) at Richmond International Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

One last race before the Chase and one last opportunity to earn a spot into NASCAR’s version of the playoffs will be the reoccurring theme Saturday night when the green flag waves for the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway. Currently 13 drivers are clinched into the Chase but there are a number of scenarios that could ultimately determine the final 3 spots tonight currently held by Chase Elliott, Austin Dillon, and Jamie McMurray. That scenario could get even wilder if Chris Buescher has trouble and falls out of the top 30 in points meaning his win would be voided from the Chase scenario. So while the storylines will be plentiful this evening, we take this time to answer to question that matters most to bettors in who will win the Federated Auto Parts 400? Take a look as we give a full preview and provide our 2016 Federated Auto Parts 400 race predictions for Richmond!

Of the Chase drivers on the outside of the bubble, only Ryan Newman and Kasey Kahne are within striking distance from a mathematical standpoint. Luckily for Kahne, Richmond marks the venue where he had his best showing of the year back in April with a 4th place finish. Kahne has also looked pretty strong again since unloading this weekend with solid race trim speed and a 7th place qualifying effort. Therefore, the #5 team looks ready to pounce if they can get some things to fall their way. Among the bubble contenders, Jamie McMurray has also looked really strong. The #1 team has been on a surge of momentum in recent weeks that has been overshadowed by teammate Kyle Larson’s success. However, the #1 team has been running very well also with 3 top 10 finishes in the last 4 races. I think the #1 and #5 cars have a lot of potential to put together quality runs tonight in desperate situations so be on the lookout for those guys in mid-tier matchup situations.

With Chase Elliott having a pair of the worse practice sessions he has had all season followed by an embarrassing 34th place qualifying effort, any Chase scenario is possible with the #24 starting in the back of the field. Still, the question that means the most to bettors is who is going to win tonight’s race? Well in final practice, the top 20 cars were within a tenth and a half of each other on average each lap when comparing 10 lap averages. It is typical that you see single lap speed stacked that close together but usually you see a lot more disparity in speeds in race trim. If you look back at the April race for reference, just the top 5 cars were within that same time differential from each other. Therefore if we go by practice speeds alone, there are going to be a lot of contenders that have an opportunity this evening when the lights shine down on Richmond International Raceway.

The good news is that we do not handicap by practice speeds alone and we know some practice speeds are nothing more than “fluff.” One undeniable fact that will be evident tonight is that the JGR cars will be tough to beat. Maybe the JGR alliance if you throw in Martin Truex Jr into the mix. Back in April, Carl Edwards bumped Kyle Busch out of the way on the final lap for the victory. Not only was it a 1-2 finish for the JGR cars but all 4 drivers finished in the top 7 positions. So far throughout practices, those guys have been the class of the field yet again. I thought Kyle Busch may have been a tough better than the other 3 guys and his 4 Richmond victories are the most among active drivers. Therefore, I give Rowdy the slight edge with Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin, and Matt Kenseth all close behind.

Another Toyota that has JGR equipment is Martin Truex Jr who has to be feeling some momentum after a big win at Darlington last week. I honestly thought the #78 was as good as anyone in practices but he typically has not raced as well at Richmond with just 1 top 5 finish in 21 career starts. I don’t think you can count out the #78 because this is a breakout year for that group but I don’t believe I can put him ahead of the JGR guys given the fact every one of those drivers has multiple Richmond victories. Outside of the JGR Toyotas, the competition is pretty level.

With that being said, I would still list Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano as the next biggest threats for the victory. Logano has posted an incredible string of finishes at Richmond with a 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, and 8th place results in the last 5 races. I would not let the practice speeds deter me from backing the #22 tonight as he always gets strong as the races progress at Richmond. The same can be said for Kevin Harvick who will have some work to do after a 19th place qualifying effort. Harvick was the only driver that posted times that were alongside the Toyotas in final practice and the fact he posted his time towards the end of practice makes the case for the #4 even strong. Obviously the team has to do a better job on pit road which likely cost them the win last week at Darlington but expect the #4 to work his way forward when the green flag waves.

A few other guys that I think are within striking distance but may need some things to fall their way include Kyle Larson, Jimmie Johnson, and Brad Keselowski. I do not think you can count out Larson in anything the way the #42 is running and I will go ahead to say this team could be dangerous in the Chase. Larson is a heck of a wheel man his win at Michigan was backed by a 3rd place showing at Darlington last week. Larson posted another strong qualifying effort and will start outside pole tonight. Larson has never been overly impressive at Richmond but has never been bad either. So I am intrigued to see how the #42 races tonight especially against some guys that may have the #42 beat in raw speed.

I put Johnson and Keselowski in this group as well that are within striking distance. Johnson blew an opportunity last week as he tried to race his way back up from a black flag penalty. What few may not realize is that the #48 had the fastest car on the track when that happened and the #48 has been making progress in terms of speed in recent weeks. Keselowski is another guy that has kind of been in a similar situation as the #48 team. They have been very close to scoring a win in recent weeks but just have not had things fall their way. Keselowski’s 4 victories are tied with Kyle Busch for the most in the series this year and they would love another 3 bonus points towards their run at the Championship.

2016 Federated Auto Parts 400 Race Predictions

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*More race picks to be posted closer to race time

Kevin Harvick +750 (1.5 units): 3-time Richmond winner, consistently one of the best at RIR, starting 19th
Carl Edwards +850 (1.25 units): 2-time Richmond winner including spring race, strong in race trim yet again, starting 13th
Joey Logano +1350 (1 unit): 2014 winner, finishes of 8th or better in last 5 races, starting 12th

H2H Matchups and Props

Kyle Buch/Matt Kenseth +343 wins Federated Auto Parts 400
Kasey Kahne +110 over Ryan Newman
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1025

H2H Matchups and Props

Kasey Kahne -135 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
Kevin Harvick -145 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Joey Logano +145 over Denny Hamlin (2 units)
Kasey Kahne +110 over Ryan Newman (1 unit)