2016 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Predictions

2016 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Saturday August 20th, 8:19PM (EST) at Bristol Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

One of the most popular races of the season will take place tonight as the Sprint Cup Series goes racing at Bristol Motor Speedway for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race. The night race at Bristol has always been one of the most exciting races of the season and tonight we will get the chances to revisit that infamous hard-nosed short track racing at the World’s Fastest Half-Mile. Take a look as we preview one of the most exciting races of the season and provide our 2016 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race predictions!

Last night in the Xfinity Series, we saw a perfect glimpse of all the possibilities that racing at Bristol can produce. We saw leaders get into wrecks, leaders run out of gas, and then a rather surprise winner in Austin Dillon who take advantage of late race track position to steal the victory. All of those possibilities are in-store for tonight’s race especially the track position factor. Passing has always been difficult at Bristol and while it produces close racing; it also makes track position very important. The fastest car does not always win these Night Races because it is all about surviving the carnage throughout the night and putting yourself in position for the win as the laps wind down.

For tonight’s 500 mile race, we look to have a slightly larger roster than normal in hopes to be on the good side in case one of those surprise winner scenarios happens again. As far as expectations go, we have to start with the JGR cars. Joe Gibbs Racing cars have won half of the 22 races this season and they are in a strong position to build on that number this evening. Kyle Busch is tied (with Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch) for the most wins among active drivers with 5 victories at Thunder Valley. Teammates Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards are close behind with 4 Bristol victories each while Denny Hamlin also has a victory to his resume. So not only have the JGR cars outperformed everyone this season and have clearly shown an advantage over the competition, but they also have some of the best drivers at Bristol behind the wheel of their machines tonight.

I think most people think of Kyle Busch when Bristol rolls around and rightfully so. However, 4 of his 5 wins were established between a two year timeframe from 2009-2011. Since then Kenseth and Edwards have been the best in recent trips to Bristol with two wins each in the last 3 seasons. Still, Busch paced both practices on Friday with the fastest lap in both sessions. Busch and Hamlin also posted the two best 10 lap averages in the final session. Edwards and Kenseth were both solid as well and all 4 JGR cars will start inside the top 5 this evening. Therefore, it definitely looks like they will be the guys to beat going into tonight’s event.

However as I alluded to earlier, anything can happen at Bristol and there are plenty of guys that could make their way into the picture before this race is over. A few guys that I believe could easily be in the picture before tonight’s race ends include the likes of Brad Keselowski and Chase Elliott. Keselowski is a two-time Bristol winner and has had very quality runs each of the last two years. The #2 looked good in practices and will be starting up front which should help him stay out of trouble. Chase Elliott on the other hand only has one Bristol race under his belt but that did entail a 4th place finish in the spring race. Elliott has been one of the fastest cars since unloading and he has the patience that it takes at Bristol to put his self in position for the win in the closing laps.

Elliott is just one of a few youngsters that will be on my radar this evening. Ryan Blaney scored his first big win in upset fashion in the Xfinity Series at Bristol and is another guy that has looked really good in terms of practice speed. Another youngster that I find intriguing is Kyle Larson. Larson has been really good at Bristol but it may not show because he has several poor finishes to show for it. Case in point, Larson rallied from a 25th starting spot and was running 3rd in the first 100 laps of the Food City 500 in the spring but then broke something in the rear end of the car that resulted in a 35th place finish. Despite the recent poor finishes, I still love Larson’s driving style for a place like Bristol and I believe he could be a threat tonight despite starting back in the 23rd position.

2016 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Predictions

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Matt Kenseth +900 (1.25 units): 4-time Bristol winner, 3rd in final practice, starting 5th and going for 2016 Bristol sweep
Kyle Larson +1500 (1.25 units): stats may not show great results but still very strong at Bristol, fast in both practices
Chase Elliott +2000 (1 unit): 4th place in only Bristol start, 3rd best 10 lap average in final practice

Two Team Parlay

Brad Keselowski/Carl Edwards +362 wins Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race
Kevin Harvick +160 over Joey Logano
Risking 1.5 units to win: +1675

H2H Matchups

Kevin Harvick +160 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Ryan Newman -120 over Jamie McMurray (2 units)
Kyle Larson -115 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
Kurt Busch +125 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Ryan Blaney +1000 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Ryan Newman +1100 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +5900 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)