2016 Lilly Diabetes 250 Race Predictions

2016 Lilly Diabetes 250 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday July 23rd, 3:48PM (EST) at Indianapolis Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Today the Xfinity Series will get the opportunity to race at one of the most prestigious venues in auto racing by way of Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Today’s field will feature one of the most talented lineups we have witnessed all season in the Xfinity Series with guys like Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Paul Menard, Kyle Larson, and Kevin Harvick in action. To make things even more exciting, today’s race will also feature the final Dash 4 Cash Race which will feature a pair of 20 lap heat races followed by a 60 lap main event to determine who will get to kiss the bricks. Follow us as we preview today’s race and provide our 2016 Lilly Diabetes 250 race predictions!

Today’s race marks just the 5th race from the Xfinity Series at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Previously, the Sprint Cup Series was the only NASCAR touring series that participated at the infamous speedway. However, over the last few years we have seen some fantastic racing at Indianapolis in the Xfinity Series and we hope that is the case again today. So far in the short history at Indy, Sprint Cup Series drivers have held the upper hand with 3 wins in the prior 4 races. Brad Keselowski won the first race back in 2012 and Kyle Busch has won 2 of the last 3 races. Xfinity Series regular Ty Dillon is the only non-Sprint Cup Series talent to taste the bricks with his win in 2014.

In fact, Dillon’s win in 2014 remains the only Xfinity Series win in his career which consist of 95 starts. While Dillon’s chances to score another win against such a stacked field are rather limited, he does have a pretty fond relationship with Indianapolis. The 24 year old finished 3rd in the inaugural Xfinity Series race at Indy back in 2012 in what was just his 2nd career start in the series. It would be two years until Dillon would get another shot at Indy and he took advantage of it by beating out Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick, and Joey Logano to earn that first victory.

Last year, Dillon also led a handful of laps before residing to a 9th place finish. While that finish was a bit disappointing, Indianapolis Motor Speedway has easily become his best race track in a rather short time. Dillon was impressive in Friday’s practices and finished 4th in Happy Hour. Obviously there are some very talented drivers and fast cars standing in between Dillon and another victory. However, he may be worth the gamble at really strong odds considering how the #3 car looked in practice compared with his resume at Indy.

In practices, the JGR cars stood out yet again. I believe I have said that about every week now but the numbers do not lie. The JGR Toyotas swept the top 3 positions in final practice and they once again appear to have a noticeable edge in speed. Busch led the group and actually finished P1 in both practices. Busch already has 6 wins in the Xfinity Series this year including wins in his last two starts. Considering his recent history at Indianapolis, recent history in general, and practice speeds; he will once again be the odds on favorite to capture the checkered flag.

However as stated previously Busch has a host of formidable opponents that will make it tough on him when the green flag waves later today. Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, and Kyle Larson are identifiable threats. I thought Harvick was the best of the group that was not in JGR equipment. The #88 car had some serious long run speed and the #42 was not too far behind. I was a bit surprised that the #22 was not nearly as strong as they showed on Friday. I am sure that will make some gains before race time but they were struggling a bit on speed.

Still, it was the JGR guys that stood out and I believe that is going to be the case when the green flag waves. Erik Jones and Daniel Suarez were both fast as well. If Busch does not cruise to yet another win, both of those guys will have a great opportunity. Remember, Suarez finished 3rd in this race last year and his win at Michigan only raises his stock going into this weekend. Busch will be receiving the short odds but a lot of things can go wrong at a track of this size especially if fuel mileage comes into the picture. There is some value in the odds behind the #18 so do not be afraid to take advantage of it! Also, remember starting position will likely be important. The last 3 winners have come from the top 3 starting spots. With this race being broken down into two heat races and just a 60 lap main, track position will be extremely important!

2016 Lilly Diabetes 250 Race Predictions

Want to bet on today’s Xfinity Series race at Indy? Get the best odds and immediate access with 5 Dimes

Erik Jones +550 (2 units): consistently fastest car throughout the weekend along with Busch, solid value for a driver with a great shot to win, starting 2nd
Daniel Suarez +925 (1.25 untis): early forums pick, 3rd place finish last year, 3rd in final practice, only Xfinity Series win came back at Michigan in June
Ty Dillon +2750 (1 unit): early forums pick, best performing track, 2014 winner, 4th in Happy Hour and receiving great odds

Two Team Parlay

Justin Allgaier +130 over Paul Menard
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Matchups

Ty Dillon -130 over Elliott Sadler (3 units)
Kevin Harvick -160 over Joey Logano (2 units)