2016 Quaker State 400 Race Predictions

2016 Quaker State 400 Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Saturday July 9th, 7:46PM (EST) at Kentucky Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Tonight the Sprint Cup Series will cap off a weekend of racing at Kentucky Speedway with the running of the Quaker State 400. We have already witnessed two great nights of racing at Kentucky between both the Xfinity and Camping World Truck Series’. Not only do we expect more enticing racing tonight but there are several lingering concerns surrounding Kentucky’s new layout that could provide a potential plot twist. We discuss those concerns and break down our expectations for tonight’s 400 mile race. Follow us as we provide our 2016 Quaker State 400 race predictions.

If you missed it in our Xfinity Series preview, Kentucky’s new layout has been the topic of discussion throughout the weekend. Over the offseason, the 1.5 mile track was repaved and banking was added to turns 1 and 2. The new design has created an asymmetrical layout that is rare for 1.5 mile layouts. Therefore, the product is two completely distinct ends of the race track. Therefore, teams are having difficulty finding the correct balance and setup to cover both ends of the track. On Friday, we witnessed several of the best drivers in the series struggle with that balance. Both Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Busch wrecked and had to resort to backup machines. Several more drivers also scrapped the wall as teams fought with handling issues.

To add more difficulty to the situation, Sprint Cup Series teams have heightened concerns surrounding tire wear entering tonight’s event. A couple of weeks ago, several teams participated in tire test at Kentucky that saw significant tire blistering. GoodYear brought back a harder and thicker tire compound to combat those wear issues. However, we have still seen a great deal of continued tire wear throughout the weekend and those concerns will be prevalent on long green runs this evening. Still, the big question is who is going to emerge from the cloud of concerns as the winner to tonight’s event?

One thing that we have not mentioned yet is tonight’s Quaker State 400 will feature the new rules package that debuted at Michigan last month. A few of the drivers that excelled in that race under those rules packages have brought back the same car or in some instances similar setups to Kentucky. Joey Logano and Chase Elliott were the two drivers that really stood out at Michigan. Logano dominated the race by leading 138 of 200 laps in route to the victory but the rookie Elliott was equally impressive with his best finish (2nd ) of his career. Elliott also led 35 laps in that race which is the most in his young career. I think both Logano and Elliott will have excellent opportunities to run well again this evening.

However, the competition is going to be extremely level tonight. There were not many cars that really stood out from practices but there were several drivers that were in close proximity at the top of the speed charts. Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick were the most consistent top performers throughout Friday’s practices. Despite resorting to a backup car, Johnson still has a lot of speed in that #48 machine. Kentucky is just one of four tracks that Johnson has never scored a victory but the Lowes team will have a chance to end that this evening.

Despite what practices may indicate, I believe Kyle Busch is the overall favorite going into tonight’s race. He is a two-time winner at Kentucky on the old layout and he has had enough seat time this weekend to be comfortable with the new layout. Busch has been outstanding on the 1.5 mile tracks this season with two victories already and I have a feeling the #18 is going to have the field in his rear view for a large part of tonight’s race. However, it is also going to come down to a matter of being in the right position towards the end of this race to get the job done. Track position will be important especially if tire issues are as big a factor as expected.

Therefore be sure to find value in your betting lineup because there could easily be a surprise story if strategy comes into play. Remember tonight’s starting lineup is based off points because rain cancelled qualifying. Therefore all of the top drivers will be starting at the head of the field. Guys like Ty Dillon and Kyle Larson should be able to race their way forward while presenting some value in H2H match-ups. I would also put guys like Denny Hamlin and Kurt Busch on your radar as well for potential sleepers. Good luck!

2016 Quaker State 400 Race Predictions

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Joey Logano +800 (1.25 units): dominated Michigan under same rules package, runner-up finish last year, starting 4th
Denny Hamlin +1550 (1 unit): 3rd place finish last year, 2nd best 10 lap average in practice 3, starting 10th
Kyle Larson +1600 (1 unit): dark horse pick, new design plays into driving style, fastest 10 lap average in final practice

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Busch +450 wins Quaker State 400
Kurt Busch +110 over Dale Earnhardt Jr
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1318

H2H Matchups and Props

Chris Buescher -145 over Brian Scott (3 units)
Kyle Larson -110 over Chase Elliott (2 units)
Denny Hamlin -115 over Dale Earnhardt Jr (2 units)
Casey Mears +115 over Danica Patrick (2 units)
Chase Elliott +625 finishes Top 3 (1 unit)
Ryan Blaney +5000 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)