2016 Menards 250 Race Predictions

2016 Menards 250 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday June 11th, 1:48PM (EST) at Michigan International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Later today the Xfinity Series will get a taste of high speed action at the Michigan International Speedway when the green flag is waved for the Menards 250. Historically, Michigan has been an unpredictable venue with 9 different winners in the last 11 races. There are several contributing factors that makes Michigan tough to conquer such as pit road strategy, fuel mileage, and speeds that puts the car right on the edge. While the action is sure to be unpredictable and exciting this afternoon, we take this time to preview today’s race while providing our 2016 Menards 250 race predictions!

One thing that became obvious on Friday is that there are several drivers that have a legitimate opportunity to score a victory this afternoon. For the first time perhaps this season, Joe Gibbs Racing cars did not dominate the practice sessions. Instead a variety of drivers were at the top of the speed charts which is bound to make things interesting once the green flag waves at 1:48PM EST. Unlike most races in the Xfinity Series, I believe there is an opportunity to potentially see a surprise winner this afternoon as well. There are only a few Sprint Cup Series drivers racing this afternoon and there were several Xfinity Series regulars that looked really strong in practice that proved they will be a factor at some point in today’s race.

Among the Xfinity Series regulars, Ty Dillon and Justin Allgaier stood out with noticeable speed. I thought both of the JR Motorsports cars between Elliott Sadler and Allgaier showed strong speed. Allgaier and the #7 car appeared to be the better of the two. Before last week’s troubles at Pocono, Allgaier had posted 3 straight top 5 finishes and I believe he is a guy that is going to steal a victory soon. Ty Dillon also looked very solid on Friday and the #3 team is riding a wave of momentum. Dillon was impressive last week at Pocono as he raced up front with the leaders all day and brought home a 3rd place finish. It was the 5th finish of 8th or better in the last 6 races for Dillon and it appears they are getting stronger with each passing week. Considering Dillon’s knack for these wide high speed surfaces, he should run really well again this afternoon.

In regards to the Xfinity Series regulars list, Erik Jones was among the drivers that really stood out in practice but that should not be surprising. Jones has distinguished himself as an exception to the rule when it comes to comparing Sprint Cup Series talent with the Xfinity Series regulars. Jones has proven that he is just as good as anyone despite the competition level and has already posted two victories this season. Jones posted the fastest lap in the first practice on Friday and was 4th fastest in the final session. In fact, Jones stood out as the best of the JGR bunch that includes last year’s race winner Kyle Busch. Instead of sweeping the top of the leaderboards as they have done all year, JGR cars were scattered throughout the top 12 cars. Busch was the overall favorite heading into Friday’s practices but his lap times failed to impress on Friday.

Busch is still one of the main favorites today given the fact of how often he dominates in the Xfinity Series and we know how strong the #18 car typically runs. However, I believe Joey Logano may have the car to beat this afternoon when the racing begins. The #22 team has been making steady improvements in the last few weeks and their speed has picked up. Logano paced the field in final practice and while no driver run many consecutive laps; Logano’s lap times did not show much fall off. Behind Logano, I also thought the #2 car of Paul Menard was very fast. Michigan is one of Menard’s best tracks and he won this race in 2014. Menard was another driver that looked really solid in race trim and he also has some solid value from an odds standpoint that is worth consideration leading up to today’s green flag.

2016 Menards 250 Race Predictions

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Joey Logano +385 (2.5 units): 2012 winner, fastest in final practice, #22 team looks strong
Paul Menard +875 (1.25 units): 2014 winner, should be good on long runs
Ty Dillon +1400 (.5 unit): 3rd last week at Pocono, top 5 finishes in 2 of last 3, 2nd fastest in practice 1, #3 team has momentum building

Justin Allgaier +2250 (.5 unit): value pick, top 5 finishes in 3 of last 4, JR Motorsports cars showed strong speed, a lot of different scenarios could play out at Michgian

H2H Matchups

Paul Menard -110 over Daniel Suarez (2 units)
Justin Allgaier -145 over Brendan Gaughan (2 units)
Erik Jones +135 over Kyle Busch (2 units)