2016 Good Sam 500 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday March 13th, 3:44PM (EST) at Phoenix International Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
It is raceday in the Valley of the Sun and in just a few hours the Sprint Cup Series will fire the engines for 312 scheduled laps at Phoenix International Raceway in the Good Sam 500. Last November Dale Earnhardt Jr snapped Kevin Harvick’s 4 race winning streak at Phoenix by the help of Mother Nature in a rain shortened event. Harvick finished in the runner-up position in that race but his status as the King of Phoenix remains unbroken. Today Harvick looks to return to his throne as we go racing in Phoenix. Find out our thoughts and 2016 Good Sam 500 race picks!
After a wild day of qualifying on Friday, several of today’s expected top competitors will be starting towards the rear of the field. Harvick qualified in the 18th position, Brad Keselowski qualified 19th, and last November’s winner Dale Earnhardt Jr qualified 26th. A few other cars will be starting at the rear of the field when you throw in the fact that Jimmie Johnson wrecked in the final round of knockout qualifying and Kasey Kahne blew an engine early in qualifying on Friday. Both of those guys will have to start at the rear of the pack and try to work their way forward.
The good news for most of those drivers is that qualifying woes can be overcome through the course of 312 laps. In fact 6 of the last 10 race winners have come from starting positions outside the top 10. Instead I think Saturday’s practices and recent driver history will play more into the expectations of today’s event. Harvick closed out Saturday with two strong sessions including the fastest time in Happy Hour. When you consider “Happy’s” dominance at Phoenix over the last several races, he has to be at the top of everyone’s list this afternoon.
A few guys that gained some value from Saturday’s two practices include the #78 of Martin Truex Jr and the #41 of Kurt Busch. Busch was fastest in practice 2 and posted the best 10 lap average in practice 2 as well. The #41 was equally strong in Happy Hour so he is a guy to keep on your radar. Busch has 1 Phoenix victory but it come over 10 years ago back in 2005. However, he has also posted finishes of 7th or better in 4 of the last 5 races at Phoenix as well which gives him some upside from a recent history approach. Truex on the other hand does not have a very impressive Phoenix resume. In fact, Truex has just 1 top 5 in 20 career starts. However, the #78 did close happy hour with some really strong speed yesterday and we have seen in recent weeks this #78 team has dark horse potential.
Outside of practice times alone, I still like the chances of guys like Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch. The #48 team really had their backup car up speed following Saturday’s session. Johnson has the most wins behind Harvick with 4 total. If you have been around the sport for a while, there was a time when Johnson dominated PIR in a manner similar to Harvick’s recent run. Johnson won 3 straight Phoenix races from the fall of 2007 through 2008 and a 4th victory in 2009. In fact at one time, Johnson posted 10 straight top 5 finishes at Phoenix from 2006-2011 which no other driver has ever done. I don’t like to count the #48 anywhere but especially at Phoenix with the way this team has been running. Kyle Busch is another driver that I think may be left off a few radars today. The younger Busch won his 2nd career start at Phoenix back in 2005 and has not visited victory lane at PIR since. However, Busch dominated the flat tracks at the end of 2015 under this new package. There has not been a lot of talk surrounding the #18 thus far this weekend but I believe he has a great chance contend this afternoon.
In regards to potential H2H notes, I like Dale Earnhardt Jr and Chase Elliot in most matchups. Dale Jr struggled in qualifying but they got the car pretty good on Saturday. I don’t believe he has a winning ride but believe he looks solid in most match-ups. I also expect Chase Elliot to continue his strong 2016 start from his 17th place starting position this afternoon. Elliot was 4th fastest in happy hour on Saturday and he has proved that he gets better throughout the course of a full race. Look for the #24 to keep things together and bring home a solid run this afternoon.
A few other quick notes regarding the opposite of expectations. I really felt the #20 and #3 cars struggled quite a bit on Saturday. Austin Dillon has been pretty bad at Phoenix in his 4 career starts with a best finish of 15th. Despite a strong 5th place showing last week at LVMS, I expect Dillon to struggle this afternoon. Kenseth and the #20 team were also pretty far off with their car. Kenseth has a win to his Phoenix resume but this track has not been friendly to him in recent years. Kenseth has finished outside the top 10 in 11 of his last 15 starts. If you consider how the #20 team looked on Saturday, I think Kenseth may be a driver to fade in H2H action on Sunday.
2016 Good Sam 500 Race Picks
Joey Logano +850 (1.5 units): 3rd place best finish last fall, has been getting better at PIR in recent starts, early forums pick
Jimmie Johnson +900(1.25 units): 4 time Phoenix winner, closed out HH with the best speed on the track
Two Team Parlays
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Kyle Busch/Kurt Busch +380 wins Good Sam 500
Carl Edwards -120 over Matt Kenseth
Risking 1.5 units to win: +1172
H2H Matchups and Props
Denny Hamlin -120 over Matt Kenseth (2 units)
Chase Elliot -155 over Jamie McMurray (2 units)
Kyle Busch +230 finishes Top 3 (1.5 units)
Jimmie Johnson finishes Top 3 (1.5 units)
