2016 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday February 28th, 1:16PM (EST) at Atlanta Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
NASCAR’s Sprint Cup Series returns to the main stage this afternoon with the running of the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. One week following one of the most exciting finishes to the Daytona 500 in recent memory, the Sprint Cup Series moves to the rugged surface of Atlanta looking to replicate another great day of racing. There are a lot of unknowns going into today’s race especially following a pair of sporadic practices from Friday and Saturday. However, we will have 500 miles to settle the score once the green flag drops this afternoon. Follow us as we provide our 2016 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 race picks!
In my opinion, Atlanta is one of the tougher races to handicap. The reason is because practice speeds rarely hold any value because tire fall off is so significant and the race track changes so much over the course of 500 miles. Crew chiefs really have to be on top of their changes and drivers have to do their part by conserving their tires. Last year, Jimmie Johnson slowly climbed his way through the field from his 37th starting position to win the race. Johnson never appeared to have the best car over the weekend. However, Chad Knaus and company kept making changes to make the car better and Johnson saved his stuff for the end of the race which led the #48 team to victory lane.
The major question going into today’s race is who can put together that type of effort and find their way to victory lane? Over the last several years, there have been 8 different race winners in the last 8 races. I believe we could easily see a 9th different winner this afternoon based on the volatility of strength from all teams in practices. Nobody looked to have any clear edge over the field on speed and that is why the long runs will be so important this afternoon.
Last week’s Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin finished final practice with the fastest lap of 188.450mph. Hamlin won this race back in 2012 and also posted another strong 3rd place finish in 2014 despite a pair of bad finishes mixed in between. Still, Joe Gibbs Racing appears to be ready to continue their dominate run from 2015 and Hamlin has looked to be the best of the bunch thus far. Teammate Matt Kenseth has to be kept in mind any time Atlanta rolls around. Kenseth does a great job of protecting his equipment and striving on the long green flag runs. Kenseth actually leads all drivers with a 7.8 average finishing position over the last 10 races and has not finished any worse than 12th during that stretch. Therefore, he may also be a safe bet for most fantasy rosters this afternoon as well.
Outside of the #11 and the #20, there is a big group of Chevrolet drivers that could easily make an impact on today’s race. Jimmie Johnson is always a strong candidate at Atlanta and has the best career average finishing position among active drivers with 4 total wins. Along with Johnson, I believe drivers Kurt Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Dale Earnhardt Jr should be candidates for strong runs this afternoon. Kurt Busch will lead the field to the green flag after winning the pole for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. The elder Busch has two victories in his last 9 Atlanta starts and he looked pretty solid in final practice deep into runs.
Harvick only has 1 victory in his 25 career starts and that was his memorable Atlanta debut back in 2001 following the death of Dale Earnhardt. Since that time, Harvick has been close several times including a runner-up finish to the #48 last year. I don’t think you can count out the #4 based on his performance over the last 2 seasons at the 1.5 mile tracks but he may not be very valuable from an odds perspective. Dale Earnhardt Jr on the other hand may have more value as a mid-range long shot. Junior is currently listed at +2250 at 5Dimes. The #88 finished 3rd in this race last year after running up front for the entire day and I thought he looked rock solid in final practice for another strong showing this afternoon.
There are a few drivers that could surprise this afternoon. I think the guy leading the upset brigade would be Martin Truex Jr. Truex was merely inches away from scoring the biggest victory of his career last week at the Daytona 500 and that #78 car has been fast all weekend. Truex has posted 3 finishes of 6th or better in his last 4 starts at Atlanta. This team proved last year that they could get hot on the 1.5 mile tracks and I would not blame anyone for taking a shot on the #78 this afternoon.
A few other guys that are poised for solid runs include Chip Ganassi Racing teammates Jamie McMurray and Kyle Larson. Larson paced the field in the first practice and his ability to continuously search for the fastest line seems to work well at tracks like Atlanta considering how the track will consistently change throughout the afternoon. McMurray ran well here last year before he was caught up in a late race incident. McMurray actually led all drivers with the fastest 10 lap average in final practice so it will be interesting to see if they can keep the #1 car together when the green flag drops later today. For our full betting lineup for today’s Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500, take a look below:
2016 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Race Picks
Kurt Busch +1000(1.25 units): 3 time Atlanta winner including two in last 8 starts, starting on pole, looked good in race trim
Matt Kenseth +1000 (1.25 units): never won in 27 starts but today that could end, two runner-up finishes in last 7 starts, should be good on long runs
Martin Truex Jr +1600 (1 unit): sneaky fast in practice, finished 6th or better in 3 of last 4 starts, has what it takes to get the job done.
Dale Earnhardt Jr +2250 (1 unit): sleeper pick, starting 16th, finished 3rd last year, looked good in race trim
Two Team Parlay
Jimmie Johnson +625 wins Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500
Ryan Blaney +110 over Chase Elliot
Risking 1 unit to win: +1422
H2H Matchups and Props
Matt Kenseth -145 over Carl Edwards (3 units)
AJ Allmendinger +115 over Aric Almirola (2 units)
Martin Truex Jr -140 over Kyle Larson (2 units)
Danica Patrick +150 over Ricky Stenhouse Jr (2 units)
Top 3 Finishes
Ryan Newman +1200 (.5 unit)
