2016 Daytona 500 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday February 21st, 1:31PM (EST) at Daytona International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
This afternoon 43 drivers will take aim at the grandest trophy in racing when the green flag is dropped for the 58th running of the Daytona 500. Petty, Yarborough, Pearson, Waltrip, Gordon, Johnson, and Earnhardt are just a few names that have been itched into the Harley J. Earl trophy over the last better half of a century. Today the opportunity awaits for another driver to etch their name into history as the winner of the Great American Race. The distance is 200 laps and the speeds will be roughly 200mph. Those are the knowns. Who will make the right moves and put their self into position to score the biggest win in NASCAR? Well that is the unknown. Follow us as we do our best to predict the unpredictable with our 2016 Daytona 500 race picks!
The last two days of racing between with the Camping World Truck Series and Xfinity Series were completely unpredictable. The cars/trucks were evenly matched and it was more of a being in the right place at the right time type of race. While those parameters hold true this afternoon and a wide range of drivers could potentially win the 500, I believe today’s race will provide a more distinguished type of restrictor plate racing. Over the last week of racing during Speedweeks, we have seen several similar names run towards the front of the field just like we did for the majority of 2015 at these restrictor plate tracks under this similar rules package. Dale Earnhardt Jr, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, and Kyle Busch are the first names that come to mind.
The reason is because the current racing package at the superspeedways has done a great job of highlighting raw speed in the draft. Gone are the days where you must have a guy pushing you in order to pass or the lottery style jostling for track position where you just hope to be at the front towards the end of a race. In today’s package, drivers can make single car moves and have the ability to keep their car out in front when they get the lead. As a result, this race is a little bit less of a crapshoot as it has been in year’s past. Yes anything can still happen, after all it is Daytona. However, the car and driver have a lot more input into how things will unfold which has not always been the case at the restrictor plate tracks.
As a result, the closing betting odds for today’s race may be somewhat shocking. Dale Earnhardt Jr is an enormous +350 favorite over the field to win today’s Daytona 500. At 3.5 to 1 odds, Earnhardt is the biggest favorite in recent memory to win the Great American Race but those odds are also a product of several of the variables that I just previously mentioned which lie in the drivers hands. On Thursday, Earnhardt was able to make passes by himself and then he was nearly unpassable when leading. If you throw in the storyline of “Amelia”, the newly nicknamed chassis that helped pilot JR to 2 restrictor plate wins in 2015 and Thursday’s duel victory, then you start to see why Earnhardt is such a big favorite. He is also one of the best to ever race on the restrictor plate tracks and will set aim for his 3rd Daytona 500 this afternoon with a great opportunity to get the job done.
I don’t think anyone could really argue with Earnhardt’s chances this afternoon. He is the guy to beat and anyone that says otherwise is completely out of their mind. However you still need things to go your way to win these races and at 3.5 to 1 odds it makes it nearly impossible to bet the #88 from a single bet standpoint. My advice for betting Earnhardt would be with a parlay option that can only be found at 5Dimes. Still one of the main questions of the afternoon is which driver(s) have the best opportunity to earn the victory if Earnhardt falters?
I think the guys next in line are Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, and Denny Hamlin. Logano gets my next vote despite the fact that it is extremely rare for a driver to go back to back in the Daytona 500. Logano won this race last year and also scored a 2nd restrictor plate victory at Talladega last October. Not only has Logano’s talents on the restrictor plates got better but who could argue with how strong the #22 is at every track these days? The same could be said for Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. Hamlin is one of the emerging names on the superspeedways and won last week’s Sprint Unlimited to add a feather to that cap. Meanwhile, Kyle Busch is just a threat everywhere right now fresh off his first Sprint Cup Championship. Rowdy won the 2nd duel on Thursday and it would not be surprising to see the #18 get his first Daytona 500 trophy this afternoon giving his current momentum.
Of course Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, and Matt Kenseth are a few other veteran drivers that could easily make an impact on this afternoon’s race. However, those drivers are receiving the same odds as the drivers I previously mentioned who I would give a much better chance of victory towards. Looking back through the field, I think you have to throw 1-2 wagers on a long shot anytime you come to Daytona or Talladega for that matter. A few guys that should have a good opportunity to run up front and possibly put their selves into position for a victory include the likes of Ryan Blaney and Jamie McMurray.
McMurray is the former 2010 Daytona 500 winner and just happens to be a great restrictor plate driver. The #1 car has looked good throughout all of speedweeks and his odds give him some enticing value. Meanwhile, I think Ryan Blaney is a rookie that could seemingly become an overnight Cinderella story similar to the way Trevor Bayne did for the Wood Brothers back in 2011. Blaney has run really well and has proven to have the respect of his peers. He worked well with the closely affiliated Penske Racing cars this week and I expect those cars to continue to work together this afternoon. If you do not like Blaney’s 36.5 to 1 odds, then I would still consider putting the #21 into some match-up situations as I expect the rookie to run really well this afternoon.
2016 Daytona 500 Race Picks
Joey Logano +1050 (1 unit): defending Daytona 500 winner, has looked strong all week, starting 5th
Kurt Busch +1900 (1 unit): sleeper pick, starting 8th, has been solid all throughout speedweeks and flying a bit under the radar. Finishes of 3rd and 5th in last two Daytona starts. I like his chances if he can avoid trouble on Sunday.
Ryan Blaney +3650 (.5 unit): driving for Wood Brothers team that took rookie Trevor Bayne to victory lane at Daytona in 2011, shown tremendous speed and maturity in a short timeframe, come on Cinderella!
Two Team Parlay
Dale Earnhardt Jr +350 wins Daytona 500
Ryan Blaney +120 over Chase Elliot
Risking 1.5 units to win: +1335
Two Team Parlay
Denny Hamlin +850 wins Daytona 500
Kevin Harvick +165 over Dale Earnhardt Jr
Risking .5 unit to win: +1208
H2H Matchups and Props
Brad Keselowski -130 over Carl Edwards (2 units)
Denny Hamlin -140 over Chase Elliot (2 units)
Over 3.5 cars -120 do not finish 100 laps (2 units)
Top 3 Finishes
Kurt Busch +575 (.5 unit)
Jamie McMurray +825 (.5 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1250 (.5 unit)
