2016 Daytona 500 Betting Odds

2016 Daytona 500 Betting Odds
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Daytona Speedweeks officially began with last Saturday’s Sprint Unlimited that was won by Denny Hamlin. The 75 lap exhibition race was a wild spectacle with several wrecks and torn up race cars. While Saturday night’s show was great for the return of NASCAR, the real fun begins as we get prepared for the 58th running of the Daytona 500. On Sunday rookie Chase Elliot became the youngest driver in Sprint Cup history, at just 20 years of age, to win the pole for the Great American Race. Elliot alongside Matt Kenseth have locked their selves into the front row of Sunday’s big race while the remainder of the field will be set by the finishing order of tomorrow’s Can-Am Duel Qualifying Races. With action underway for Daytona Speedweeks, we take this time to preview the updated 2016 Daytona 500 betting odds and give a few early thoughts to consider for the week ahead.

2016 Daytona 500 Betting Odds

*Note: Full list of odds for every driver will be listed after Thursday’s qualifying races at 5Dimes

The first thing that sticks out from the updated Daytona 500 odds is the fact that Dale Earnhardt Jr is receiving ridiculously low odds for a restrictor plate race. Yes, Dale Earnhardt Jr won 2 of the 4 plate races last year and was inches away from winning a 3rd at Talladega in October. Yes, Earnhardt will be piloting the same dominate chassis that he took to all 4 plate races in 2015. However, I just do not see how you can bet the #88 at 4.5 to 1 odds for any plate race. Earnhardt does not have any value at those odds. Of course that is not to say that I expect anything less from Earnhardt from a competition standpoint. In fact, I believe Junior is the man to beat going into this Sunday’s race. However, there are too many variables to take Earnhardt at 4.5 to 1 odds for a restrictor plate race general not to mention the Daytona 500.

A few guys that I believe do have some limited value amongst the favorites are Joey Logano (+1150) and Denny Hamlin (+1100). Logano is the defending Daytona 500 winner and has simply been excellent on all surfaces going back to his great 2015 campaign. Sure it is rare for a driver to go back to back in the Daytona 500 as it has not been done since Sterling Marlin in 1994 and 1995. However, Logano is running strong enough to be the exception to the rule and let us not forget he also won the October race at Talladega giving him 2 restrictor plate wins along with Earnhardt in 2015.

The next guy that deserves some attention right away is the driver of the #11 car Denny Hamlin. Hamlin won Saturday night’s Sprint Unlimited race. At first glance, they may raise the #11 car’s stakes a bit. However, I do not believe in much correlation from the Sprint Unlimited to the Daytona 500. The chassis are not the same, the setups are not the same, and more times than not teams are just trying to test on some things to use for the 500. However, Hamlin has still been rock solid on the restrictor plate tracks over the last 2 years and owns the best average finishing position out of all drivers not named Earnhardt at Daytona. If you add the fact there has not been much change to the rules packages this year, the #11 should be a guy to deal with yet again on Sunday.

If you scroll through the remaining odds for the drivers listed, I do not see many drivers that really jump off the board in the terms of pure value. In fact, the current odds are pretty conservative and should only get better for the better half of the field following tomorrow’s qualifying races and closer to green flag on Sunday. Still if you want to buy-in to some of the hype, Kyle Larson at +4200 odds has some value. At nearly 42-1 odds, Larson is one of the young drivers that could steal the Daytona 500 stage with an upset style victory. If you look on paper, Larson has had nothing but bad finishes with results of 38th, 36th, 34th, and 39th. However do not let the finishes fool you. Larson has run up front at Daytona on a few occasions and as most recently as Saturday night’s Sprint Unlimited and back at the Coke Zero 400 last July. If you are looking to bring some value to your betting roster, Larson is a name that you should give some strong consideration. Be sure to check back towards the weekend for updated odds and predictions for the 58th running of the Daytona 500.