2015 Lilly Diabetes 250 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday July 25th, 3:45PM (EST) at Indianapolis Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will go racing at one of the most infamous tracks in all of racing today in the Lilly Diabetes 250 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Today’s race marks just the 4th event for the Xfinity Series at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, and Ty Dillon winning the last 3 races over the last 3 years. Both Kyle Busch and Ty Dillon are back for today’s race along with a host of a talented drivers including the likes of Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson, Paul Menard, and Erik Jones. Find out our thoughts and 2015 Lilly Diabetes 250 race picks for today’s race!
Xfinity Series teams and drivers participated in two practice sessions on Friday. From those practice sessions, it appeared that the teams of Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, and Erik Jones were the best of the field with Paul Menard and Ryan Blaney closely behind. Busch, Larson, and Jones finished in the top 4 in both practices. However practice times at Indianapolis cannot be given too much credit because you rarely see cars run more than a handful of consecutive laps on the large 2.5 mile surface. Therefore it can be rather hard or simply a guessing game to predict which cars will be best on the long runs. Under those circumstances, we tend to turn to things like driver feedback and history to make our predictions for today’s race.
On Friday, Kyle Busch was really happy with his Xfinity Series #54 Monster Energy Toyota. Busch won this race in 2013 and finished runner-up last year to Ty Dillon. The #54 car finished 1st and 2nd in the two practice sessions on Friday. Based on Busch’s own feedback, he seemed to be really happy with the handling on the car which could be trouble for the field once the green flag drops later today. Meanwhile Kyle Larson probably had his best practice sessions of the season this year in the #42 Xfinity Series car. Larson scored two wins in the Xfinity Series in 2014 but has just 1 top 5 finish through his first 5 starts so far this season. The #42 car has struggled for the most part and it will be interesting to see if the #42 team has found something with race speed or if their gains were more relative to single lap speed.
One guy that was not happy with his car was reigning Sprint Cup Champion Kevin Harvick. You would have to scroll down the practice charts pretty far to find Harvick’s name on Friday. The #88 car finished mid-pack in both sessions and that was the same for most of the JR Motorsports teams. Regan Smith was the only driver from JR Motorsports to crack the top 10 in either practice session and it appears all 3 teams are behind the 8 ball going into Saturday’s race. Points leader Chris Buescher and teammate Elliot Sadler were also having trouble finding speed as well. Buescher has struggled in recent weeks failing to crack the top 10 in each of his last 3 starts. The points leader still has a 31 point advantage in the championship race but the team has not performed like they did earlier this season in recent weeks.
If you are looking for some potential talent from a dark horse or H2H standpoint, then there is some value in the field behind Kyle Busch who is an overwhelming favorite. Daniel Suarez has looked really strong thus far. Suarez put the car on the outside pole making it a 1-2-3 sweep for JGR cars to start the race. Suarez has been running really well in recent weeks and he would be a good dark horse to consider. Also, perhaps a guy like Brian Scott could bring some value in H2H situations as well. Scott posted a 2nd place finish in this race in 2013 and has been pretty fast all weekend. If you can find Scott in a lower tier H2H match-up, he should have some value for a solid day.
2015 Lilly Diabetes 250 Race Picks
Kyle Busch +175 (3 units): 2013 winner, 2014 runner-up, best car in practice and won the pole for today’s race
Erik Jones +700 (1 unit): two wins this year on 1.5 mile tracks, appears to have a real consistent car on long runs, all JGR cars are a threat to win today
Daniel Suarez +900 (.75 unit): cover play, really strong car in final practice, back to back top 5’s in last two races, starting to figure this thing out
H2H Match-ups
Erik Jones -115 over Paul Menard (2 units)
Brian Scott -135 over Chris Buescher (2 units)
