2015 Coke Zero 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday July 5th, 8:04PM (EST) at Daytona International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
One of the most exciting races of the season will take place late Sunday when the green flag is waved for the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona International Speedway. On Saturday qualifying was cancelled due to weather concerns and now the starting lineup will be based off practice 1 speeds meaning Dale Earnhardt Jr will lead the field to the green flag. Earnhardt won the last restrictor plate race at Talladega back in May and will seek the 10th restrictor plate victory of his career when the green flag drops at Daytona. Find out our thoughts on Earnhardt and others in our 2015 Coke Zero 400 race picks preview!
Earnhardt is the overall favorite for Sunday’s race at 6-1 odds which is really low a place like Daytona where anyone can win just as Aric Almirola proved in this race one year ago. However, Earnhardt has been the “Pied Piper” of pack racing and he has posted stellar numbers at Daytona over the last few years. On Friday, Earnhardt proved that he had the fastest car on single lap speed but he also showed the ability to go from the back of the pack to the front rather easily during that practice as well while running with a group of 8-10 drivers. Therefore it does appear that the #88 will be really strong which has been the normal in these types of races but at 6-1 odds it is almost not worth the gamble considering the risk far outweighs the reward.
Just look how last night’s Xfinity Series Firecracker 250 unfolded to get an example of these restrictor plate races. Brian Scott dominated the race but two big wrecks took out all the leaders leaving a late race dash for the win with just 9 cars in contention. Austin Dillon emerged from the carnage as the victor but the point of the story is that just 1 or 2 bad wrecks could completely annihilate the field. Therefore we have to make sure that are bets have high upside from an odds standpoint and as always with the restrictor plate races we should approach with a low risk/high reward type of strategy. So who are the guys that could give us a big payday? Well realistically about 20 drivers but let’s narrow the field to the more likely guys that could grab the checkered flag!
If you want to narrow your Daytona list, we could just start by narrowing it to a single team with Hendrick Motorsports. Hendrick engines and restrictor plate packages in general have been really strong in recent superspeedway races. Back at Talladega, Earnhardt and Jimmie Johnson posted a 1-2 finish. Earnhardt and Johnson have been really good at Daytona in recent races with 3 wins in the last 5 races between the two. In total, Earnhardt and Johnson have 3 wins each at Daytona while Jeff Gordon has that total single handedly with 6 Daytona victories. Outside of Earnhardt, I think bettors must take a look at Johnson at near 10-1 odds and possibly even give a look to Jeff Gordon who will likely be taking his last ride around Daytona International Speedway.
Outside of the Hendrick brigade, it becomes more of a guessing game. The only driver outside of Jimmie Johnson to score multiple Daytona wins in the last 12 races is Tony Stewart and the #14 has not been anywhere close to contending for wins this season. Therefore, we have to look at some of the tangibles. If we learned anything from last night’s Xfinity Series race, we should know that track position will be of huge importance. The outside groove was not really a factor until the last 5 laps in last night’s race as leaders hugged the bottom of the track. Track position does not sound like it would be very important at a restrictor plate track but Daytona is the exception.
A few guys that I think could pull off the track position game on pit road with aggressive pit strategy and also keep their position on the race track include drivers like Brad Keselowski and Matt Kenseth. Keselowski has been a big threat at Talladega in restrictor plate racing with 3 wins in just 13 starts. Bad Brad has not had that success at Daytona as he is still winless but I do not think that should stop us from taking a hard look at the #2 tomorrow night especially with Paul Wolf atop the pit box in a track position type of race. Kenseth on the other hand is a guy that run well here back in February. Kenseth won the Sprint Unlimited and looked to have a promising car for the 500 before an early wreck ruined his day. Kenseth has won two Daytona 500 trophies since 2009 and could be a guy that could score his first Coke Zero 400 victory.
A few guys we just know are going to be fast like Harvick, Truex, and Logano. However there are a few other drivers that I think could have really strong runs as well like Kyle Busch, David Ragan, and even Casey Mears. We all know that Kyle Busch is a momentum type of race driver and last week’s win at Sonoma could really be what gets the #18 team going. Ragan won this race in 2011 as a huge 100-1 underdog and looked to have a lot of speed in that #55 machine on Friday. Mears is a guy that I think should be looked at in H2H situations. The #13 has posted nothing but quality finishes at Daytona in recent outings and could be really used as a low tier driver in either fantasy lineups or H2H match-ups.
2015 Coke Zero 400 Race Picks
Kevin Harvick +950 (1 unit): 2010 Coke Zero 400 winner, runner-up in the 500 in February, best odds you may see Harvick at all year
Jimmie Johnson +1000 (1 unit): two Daytona wins in last 5 races, runner-up at Talladega, no issues in either practice
Denny Hamlin +1600 (1 unit): average 4th place finish in last 3 Daytona starts, also ran well at Talladega in May, #11 car has become restrictor plate force
Clint Bowyer +2350 (.5 unit): two wins on restrictor plate races both coming at Talladega, another guy that ran really well back in February
Matt Kenseth +1400 (.5 unit): Sprint Unlimited winner in February, Two-time Daytona 500 winner
Greg Biffle +5500 (.5 unit): value play, 2003 Coke Zero 400 winner, always been solid at Daytona, great odds for a driver that can get it done.
H2H Match-ups and Props
Austin Dillon -130 over Ricky Stenhouse Jr (1 unit)
Joey Logano -115 over Brad Keselowski (1 unit)
Casey Mears -115 over Danica Patrick (2 units)
