Duck Commander 500 Fantasy Preview
By: NASCAR Wagers, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Kurt Busch became the 6th different winner through 6 races in the Sprint Cup Series this Sunday by winning the STP 500 at Martinsville Speedway. The win nearly guarantees Busch along with all other race winners a spot in the Chase for the Sprint Cup. In the event that NASCAR has more than 15 races winners by the start of Chase, which is a growing possibility, then overall points would be the deciding factor for the top 15 race winners according to the 2014 rules changes for the Sprint Cup Championship. Dale Earnhardt Jr took over the points lead with a strong 3rd place finish at Martinsville while earning his series best 4th Top 5 finish. NASCAR’s most popular driver has also been NASCAR’s most consistent driver dating back to the end of the 2013 season. This week the Sprint Cup Series visits Texas Motor Speedway and the site of Junior’s first career Sprint Cup victory. Junior will be just one of many drivers that we keep on a radar in this week’s Duck Commander 500 Fantasy Preview.
Like many tracks, Jimmie Johnson has dominated in his recent trips to the Lonestar state. Johnson has a lucrative 2.5 average finish in his last 4 trips to Texas Motor Speedway including two victories. Johnson dominated the fall race at Texas last year by leading 255 of the scheduled 334 laps in route to victory lane. While Johnson will likely open as the overall favorite again, Matt Kenseth has the slightly better career average finish over Johnson. Kenseth has an 8.3 average finish position through 23 starts at Texas which includes 13 Top 5’s and two victories. Kenseth was extremely strong at all the 1.5 mile tracks last year and Joe Gibbs Racing had a solid outing two weeks ago at Fontana. Therefore, this could be a good spot for Kenseth or Johnson to get their first victories of the season.
If you looking at an angle to consider for the Duck Commander 500, we would consider giving Ford drivers a hard look. Ford’s improvement has been very noticeable in 2014 and that is a trend that may be here to stay. Penske Racing drivers Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano have been fast everywhere this season. Carl Edwards who is 2nd in the point standings has already scored a victory for Roush-Fenway Racing driving a Ford this season. Additionally, Ford cars have seemingly done better against tire wear issues this season which has been a bigger concern in recent weeks.
We expect Ford drivers to be strong again this week and suggest adding a few to your fantasy roster. Carl Edwards is tied with Jimmie Johnson for the most wins (3) among active drivers. Edwards’ teammate Greg Biffle is another guy that knows how to get around Texas Motor Speedway. Biffle has two victories at Texas including two Top 5’s in the last 4 trips. As mentioned before, Penske Racing has shown speed every week. Brad Keselowski has not been overly impressive statistically at Texas but the same could have been said last week for Joey Logano at Martinsville. Logano entered Martinsville last week with just two Top 10 finishes in his 11 career starts. However, Logano was one of the best cars in last week’s STP 500 and managed to bring home a 4th place finish. Logano seems to be catching some momentum and he may be a valuable dark horse again this week.
While guys like Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Newman, and Kyle Busch have all visited victory lane at Texas, we really believe the Ford drivers will be the ones to watch for this week’s Duck Commander 500. Both Penske and Rousch-Fenway Racing teams have shown a lot of speed at the intermediate tracks this season while managing to battle off tire issues. We believe those trends will continue this week and expect a Ford in victory lane on Sunday afternoon.
