2015 Coca Cola 600 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday May 24th, 6:19PM (EST) at Charlotte Motor Speedway
by NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Perhaps the most exciting day in auto racing is amongst us this Memorial Day weekend. Today auto racing fans will be treated to both the Indianapolis 500 and the Coca Cola 600 in a dynamic double header featuring the best racing in the world. While most race fans will surely tune in to the Indy 500, our focus is still on this evening’s 600 mile marathon that will start during the daylight hours and end under the lights at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Once known as the World 600, this is a race of epic proportions and is one of the most prestigious events on the Sprint Cup Series schedule. Take a look as we preview today’s exciting race and provide our 2015 Coca Cola 600 race picks!
One of the common themes we have seen over the last week or so at Charlotte Motor Speedway is the importance of track position. We witnessed it in the Truck Series over a week ago, we saw it in the All-Star Race when Denny Hamlin got ahead of Kevin Harvick after the final pit stop, and we saw it frequently play a big factor in yesterday’s Xfinity Series Hisense 300. Therefore it cannot be reiterated enough, track position will be everything once the green flag waves at approximately 6:19PM (EST) this evening. The good news is that teams and drivers will have plenty of chances to gain and maintain track position through 600 miles of racing. However just like last week’s All-Star Race, do not be surprised if the best car does not get to victory lane especially if a team finds a way to put their driver out front in the latter stages of tonight’s race.
Of course when you are handicapping a race like the Coca Cola 600, the strategy does not change too much as you still need to pick drivers that are going to run up front and have the opportunity to position their selves for the victory. The only difference is with this race being a bit longer than most then you may want to consider pit crews and teams that do a good job of staying on top of their changes with the racecar a little more this week. With that being said, the two favorites entering tonight’s race are of no surprise in Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson. Both drivers have won all 4 of the races at the 1.5 mile tracks this season. Johnson has won 3 of those races and interestingly enough Harvick has finished 2nd to Johnson in each of those 3 wins. Harvick typically has the fastest car these days but Johnson and the #48 team proved they can make the right calls to win races just as they did at Kansas a few weeks ago. In a long race like the Coca Cola 600, Johnson is an extremely dangerous threat for the victory tonight especially considering his resume at Charlotte Motor Speedway that features 7 victories which is the most all time.
Behind Harvick and Johnson, the question is what other drivers can contend in tonight’s marathon? Well there may be a few worthy candidates and they happen to be teammates to both Johnson and Harvick. Harvick’s teammate Kurt Busch has looked extremely strong in practices and is a former Coca Cola 600 winner (2010). Jimmie Johnson’s teammates in Kasey Kahne and Dale Earnhardt Jr could threaten his run for an 8th Charlotte win as well. Charlotte just so happens to be one of Kahne’s best tracks and the #5 car looked awfully strong in race trim through Saturday’s practice sessions. One big problem for Kahne is that he will start 33rd after a poor qualifying effort. Obviously Kahne will have plenty of time to work his way to the front but has to make sure to stay out of trouble during his pursuit to the front. Earnhardt Jr was also strong in race trim especially in the first practice on Saturday. The team reportedly went the wrong way in final practice before reverting back to their original setup that appeared strong in practice 2. Earnhardt has been really good on the 1.5 mile tracks this season finishing no worse than 4th so do not count out the #88 as he seeks his 2nd victory of the season.
While the Chevrolet drivers appear to have the winning formula for the 1.5 mile tracks this season, Joe Gibbs Racing is closing the gap. All of the JGR cars looked pretty solid in race trim conditions on Saturday. Matt Kenseth may have been the best of the group finishing in the top 5 in both practices. Kenseth has run well at Charlotte in recent years finishing in the top 5 in 4 of his last 5 starts. The 600 also fits into Kenseth’s driving style as he does a really good job of taking care of his equipment. With that being said, I think Kenseth would be an excellent dark horse pick and would have a lot of value in H2H match-ups. Also, do not be surprised if Denny Hamlin backs up his All-Star win from last week with another strong performance. Hamlin was 2nd best in 10 lap averages in final practice and if his pit crew keeps gaining 3-4 spots with every pit stop, the #11 could easily be a threat again tonight.
If you are looking for a few guys that may be fade worthy, consider Joey Logano and Carl Edwards. Despite seeing improvement on speed, Edwards still has just 1 top 10 finish on the season and more importantly the #19 team just does not seem to be able to make the right changes on the racecar in race conditions. Edwards seems to fade as the race goes along and that is not a trend that you want on your roster in the Coca Cola 600. Joey Logano on the other hand is usually a guy that you would want to consider when Charlotte rolls around. In fact, Logano holds the best average finishing position (10.0) of any active driver. However, the #22 has struggled severely in race trim on Saturday and they will need some big overnight changes to get a car worthy of running up front on long runs. Consider both guys as potential fades in the right H2H match-ups on Sunday.
2015 Coca Cola 600 Race Picks
Jimmie Johnson +575 (2 units): 7 wins are most all-time, has won 3 of the 4 races on 1.5 mile tracks this season, easily the best car in race trim in practice 2 on cooler track conditions that will be relative for the way the track will end on Sunday
Matt Kenseth +900 (1 unit): best non-Chevy on 1.5 mile tracks this season, strong practices, two-time Charlotte winner, starting on pole
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1900 (.5 unit): finished no worse than 4th on 1.5 mile tracks this season, was real happy with car in practice 2, another potential driver that should get better throughout the night
Cover Parlay
Kurt Busch wins (+650) Coca Cola 600
Brad Keselowski -140 over Joey Logano
Risking (.5 unit) to win: +595
H2H Match-ups and Props
Dale Earnhardt Jr +120 over Jeff Gordon (2 units)
Kyle Larson +100 over Kyle Busch (2 units)
Kurt Busch -145 over Joey Logano (2 units)
David Ragan -130 over Tony Stewart (2 units)
