Auto Club 400 Predictions
The Sprint Cup Series returns to Auto Club Speedway this weekend with the running of the Auto Club 400 in Fontana, California. It was not too long ago that the Sprint Cup Series made two annual trips to what was formerly known as California Speedway. However since 2011, the series has hosted just one annual event each year in March. Therefore Auto Club Speedway has a unique factor in that it is one of the few tracks that host just one event each year similar to tracks like Chicago, Indianapolis and Darlington. As a result, Auto Club Speedway can be a difficult track to predict how things will unfold. However, that does not stop us from making a few bold Auto Club 400 predictions for this Sunday’s 200 lap race.
One thing that you need to understand about Auto Club Speedway is that it is one of those tracks where anything can happen. The track is a large flat 2 mile surface with racing grooves from the very bottom of the track to all the way up against the wall. In some scenarios, the racing can be similar to what you may see at Michigan International Speedway. It’s that type of speed and racing that always makes Auto Club Speedway an entertaining spectacle. Last year, the race was plagued by tire issues. Several drivers blew out tires with only a handful of laps remaining including race leader Jimmie Johnson who ended up finishing 24th. Those tire issues setup a classic green-white-checker restart where teammates Tony Stewart and Kurt Busch battled for the lead on the final lap, only to be overtaken by Kyle Busch who scored his 2nd straight Fontana victory in similar fashion.
In 2013, it was Kyle Busch who benefitted on a battle between Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin on the last lap. Logano and Hamlin got into each other coming out of turn 4 to the checker flag which allowed Busch to steal the victory. The incident, if you remember, is the one that left Hamlin with a fractured vertebra and caused him to miss several weeks of racing. To put a long story in more of a simple form, Auto Club Speedway has presented a little bit of everything over the past few years. While it is impossible to predict which bizarre scenario will happen next, here are a few predictions we think will happen this Sunday:
Jimmie Johnson will be the driver to beat
This may not be a real “bold” prediction but rest assured that I would put Jimmie Johnson over Kevin Harvick entering this Sunday’s race. Sure Harvick has won the last two races and finished 2nd or better in the last 7 straight races. However, Auto Club Speedway is one of those tracks that Jimmie Johnson has dominated throughout his career along the lines of the way he has dominated the tracks of Dover and Charlotte. In his 20 starts, Johnson has 5 wins and 5 2nd place finishes. That’s right math whizzes; Johnson has finished 1st or 2nd in exactly 50% of his starts. Go back to last year’s race, Johnson dominated the event but blew out a tire while leading the race with less than 10 laps to go so chalk that up as another dominate run. Going back to what we saw at Atlanta from “Six-Time”, expect the #48 to be the car to beat this weekend.
Ryan Newman records another Top 5 finish
Ryan Newman has posted two straight 3rd place finishes over the last two weeks and I believe the #31 team is poised to make another strong run again this Sunday. Newman has shown plenty of speed and keeps getting closer to ending his winless streak. Last year at Auto Club Speedway, Newman had a solid run going before a blown tire ruined his chance at victory. This year expect the #31 to hang around the front and possibly even make a run at the victory!
Tony Stewart will have a good day
At first I was going to say Tony Stewart would have his best finish of the year but he would only need to finish inside the top 30 to accomplish that feat. Instead, I will say “Smoke” gets a top 15 finish this week. There is no doubt that the #14 car has been terrible this year and it is rather disgusting to watch considering Stewart is a 3 time champion. However, Auto Club Speedway is one of those tracks where Stewart has always run well. The track is really slick and has a lot of tire fall off which plays into Stewart’s driving style. It may not be a great day in the #14 camp but it should be a decent one.
Brian Vickers will be the highest finishing Toyota
Joe Gibbs Racing has not run well early in 2014 and Denny Hamlin pretty much summed it up last week following Phoenix with “We suck, all of our cars suck right now.” I think Hamlin was echoing what many were already suspecting in terms that Toyota looks down on speed. While JGR cars continue to struggle, I think there is a Toyota driver that could surprise on Sunday but he will not be in the JGR brigade. Brian Vickers is just two weeks back into the car but will return to Auto Club Speedway where he has run really well in recent years. Last year Vickers ran inside the top 3 for most of the 2nd half of the race before falling finishing 7th. I doubt he will be that strong again on Sunday but he could run well enough to be among the top Toyota’s in the field which would be a solid day for the #55 bunch.
*Update: Brian Vickers will not race on Sunday for blood clots that have returned. Brett Moffitt will return to the #55 car.
