2015 NASCAR Handicapping Outlook
by NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
In just two short weeks, NASCAR will fire the engines on the 2015 season with the Sprint Unlimited which will officially start NASCAR Speedweeks that will be capped off by the 57th running of the Great American Race in the Daytona 500. As we prepare for another exciting season of racing with big profits, we take a look back at some of the undeniable facts from 2014 and look ahead to provide a few tidbits towards our 2015 NASCAR handicapping outlook.
There will be plenty of changes to watch this season starting with a big rules package change that will reduce engine optimization and horsepower. Gone are the days of 200mph laps at 1.5 mile tracks like Charlotte and Texas which teetered on the lines of wicked fast and insanity. Among the other changes to watch will be Carl Edwards in a new #19 car this year for Joe Gibbs Racing, Ryan Blaney making his rookie debut for the Wood Brothers, and a host of crew chief changes for drivers like Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Kasey Kahne, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Yes, there will be plenty of things to watch early this year to see which teams are able to adapt best to the new changes in store for 2015. However before we start another new NASCAR season, let’s take a look back at some undeniable facts from 2014 that should not be forgotten as we move towards the 2015 season.
Undeniable Handicapping Fact #1: Hendrick and Penske dominated
Hendrick Motorsports and Penske Racing teams combined to score 24 victories over the course of the 36 race schedule in 2014. Throw out Kasey Kahne’s single victory at Atlanta and all the remaining victories come between just 5 drivers in Jeff Gordon (4), Jimmie Johnson (4), Dale Earnhardt Jr (4), Joey Logano (5), and Brad Keselowski (6). Not only was in pure dominance in terms of wins but the victories were easily predictable. When it was time for speed, these two teams deliver. Penske and Hendrick drivers won 14 of the 17 races at tracks with sizes of 1.5 miles or greater (excluding restrictor plate tracks and road courses due to different styles of racing). Therefore when speeds were at their highest and horsepower was needed most, Hendrick and Penske teams completely dominated.
2015 Outlook: Reduction in horsepower in 2015 may hurt both teams to a degree but will likely effect Penske Racing cars most. Penske Racing cars really made vast improvements on suspension packages that accompanied the higher speeds which resulted in complete dominance in terms of qualifying and raw speed. Those advantages will not be as great in 2015.
Undeniable Handicapping Fact #2: Bet on Kyle Busch Motorsports in the CWTS
Anytime Kyle Busch enters a Camping World Truck Series event, he is a clear favorite and his dominance in the Truck Series is undeniable. However, Kyle Busch Motorsports has assembled quite the supporting cast in the last few years. Between Busch (7), Erik Jones (3), and Bubba Wallace Jr (4), Kyle Busch Motorsports drivers combined for 14 of the 22 victories in Truck Series competition in 2014. If you would have simply bet on just Kyle Busch Motorsports drivers in 2014, you would have been profitable. Pretty simple formula isn’t it?
2015 Outlook: Erik Jones steps into a full time role this season in place of Bubba Wallace Jr and rookie Justin Boston also comes on board in a full time role. Owner Kyle Busch will still get his normal share of starts which will undoubtedly lead to some victories. Watch for Erik Jones to be the breakout story of the year and KBM to be on top of the Truck Series yet again
Undeniable Handicapping Fact #3: Know the facts when betting on the Xfinity Series
Last year’s Nationwide Series, which is now named the Xfinity Series, may have been one of the most competitive in history. If you were not really on top of your game, then chances are that you did not come out with any significant profits last year in terms of Nationwide Series events. However if you look back at the 2014 season then you can quickly notice some of the same trends which have been apparent over the past few seasons. Guys like Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Matt Kenseth, and Denny Hamlin were always over-valued. Together those guys combined for just 3 wins in 58 starts. Meanwhile some of the similar kings of the series continued to flex their muscles. Kyle Busch won 7 times in 26 starts (26.9%), Kevin Harvick won 4 times in 15 starts (26.6%), and Brad Keselowski win 5 times in just 11 starts (45.5%).
Surely this season will be very competitive again but do not forget the basics. Forget the drivers that are always over-valued in Xfinity Series competition and back the guys that consistently get the job done.
