AAA 500 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Date and Time: Sunday November 1st, 2014. 3:18PM EST
Where: Texas Motor Speedway
TV: ESPN
by NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping
The 2nd race in the “Eliminator Round” of the Chase will get started today when the green flag waves on the AAA 500 at Texas Motor Speedway at approximately 3:18pm (EST). Last week Dale Earnhardt Jr stole a win from the Chase competitors with his victory at Martinsville guaranteeing that at least two spots will be filled on points in those who advance to Homestead for the one race for the Sprint Cup. Today we take a look at the AAA 500 to see if any other non-Chase drivers could spoil the show again this afternoon. Meanwhile some of the big favorites for the Chase like Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski both suffered troubles last week and need strong performances this afternoon. Take a look as we preview today’s race and provide our AAA 500 race picks:
Speeds have been incredible thus far this weekend at Texas Motor Speedway. Brian Vickers hit 199.218mph to lead all other drivers in the first practice and Tony Stewart became the first driver to eclipse the 200mph lap mark on a 1.5 mile speedway in the 2nd round knockout qualifying. Needless to say, Texas has taken the top spot as the world’s fastest 1.5 mile speedway. However, I still believe that you can compare Texas very closely to Charlotte Motor Speedway from a handicapping perspective. Both tracks surfaces are very similar and Charlotte also nearly reached the 200mph lap mark earlier this season. Of course when you think of Charlotte, most people think of Jimmie Johnson from his domination at the track with 7 victories. Johnson and the #48 team have not run very well throughout the chase. However the #48 car did lead all drivers in final practice in both single car speed and the best 10 lap average. As a result of those factors combined, Johnson has surged as the overall favorite of today’s race at roughly 4-1 at most betting shops.
Based off that same Charlotte comparison, Kevin Harvick is the next biggest favorite behind Johnson at roughly 5.5 to 1 odds. Harvick got his first win in the Chase at Charlotte just a few weeks ago. However, we are quick to point out that Harvick has never won at Texas and additionally did not appear very impressive in either of Saturday’s practices. In fact if we go by practice sessions this week, it may appear that the Hendrick Motorsports brigade should be among the favorites. Outside of Johnson, Jeffo Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr, and Kasey Kahne have shown some positive upside this weekend. Kahne’s only win of the season come on another 1.5 mile speedway at Atlanta and the #5 had the 4th best 10 lap average in final practice. Earnhardt is running his winning Pocono chassis and was 5th in final practice. Meanwhile the only Hendrick driver still standing in the Chase, Gordon closed out final practice with some impressive laps. There is no doubt that Gordon has been one of the hottest drivers in the Chase and he is the only driver to start everyone of Texas Motor Speedway’s 27 races in the track’s history.
A few other guys that we think deserve a lot of attention today include names like Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, and Joey Logano. Logano may be the most obvious choice considering the #22 has been excellent on the 1.5 mile speedways this season and won back in April at Texas. The #22 also finished final practice in the number 4 spot on speed. Kyle Busch was another guy that was solid in race trim. Rowdy will be going for the weekend sweep today after wins in both the Truck and Nationwide Series races. Busch was also very good at Charlotte a few weeks ago which plays in to our comparison theme. Kyle Larson is currently listed at 22-1 odds which seems very generous. Larson has been really impressive on the 1.5 mile speedways especially during the Chase. The Cup rookie finished 5th back in April at Texas and also had the 3rd best 10 lap average in final practice. From a value standpoint with odds, Larson may be the best bet of the bunch.
If you are wanting to look even further outside the top guys for potential race winners, there has really been a lot of drivers that have shown glimpses of potential this weekend. Kurt Busch, Carl Edwards, Paul Menard, and Ryan Newman are some other names to throw in the hat. Edwards has surprisingly posted 4 top 5 finishes at the 1.5 mile speedways this year and led all drivers in practice 2. Kurt Busch grabbed a lot of attention on Saturday with some really strong laps in race trim. Busch finished with the 2nd best 10 lap average in final practice. Additionally guys like Paul Menard and Ryan Newman have remained around the top of the leaderboard throughout the weekend on single lap speed. Menard looked to be the better of the two in race trim but we do not feel like either driver is capable of winning today’s race outright. However, both drivers may be of some value in potential H2H matchups.
AAA 500 Race Picks
Kyle Larson +2200 (.5 unit): most impressive on 1.5 mile speedways this year, finished 5th back in April and 6th recently at Charlotte, #42 was 3rd best in 10 lap averages in final practice
Joey Logano +1050 (1 unit): April Texas winner, two wins this year on 1.5 mile speedways, starting 10th
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1800 (.5 unit): first and only win came at Texas, using winning Pocono chassis, finished 5th in final practice
Kyle Busch +1300 (1 unit): April 2013 Texas winner, 3 top 5’s in last 5 starts, solid in race trim in final practice, going for the hat trick
Winning Parlay
Jeff Gordon/Jimmie Johnson +229 wins AAA 500
Carl Edwards +115 over Tony Stewart
To win:+610
H2H Matchups and Props
Jeff Gordon -130 over Matt Kenseth (2 units)
Joey Logano -130 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Carl Edwards +155 over Kurt Busch (1 unit)
