2026 Cook Out 400 Betting Race Picks

Date/Time: Saturday August 15th, 2026. 7:00PM (EST)
Where: Richmond Raceway
TV: USA

Yesterday afternoon, Ryan Blaney won his 2nd straight pole by posting a fast lap of 121.485mph at Richmond Raceway. For the 2nd straight week, Blaney will have the luxury of leading the field to the green flag for the start of the Cook Out 400. Despite being among the best short track talents in the Cup Series, Blaney has never captured a victory at Richmond Raceway. In fact, Blaney has just two finishes inside the Top 10 through 18 career starts. With those things considered, Blaney remains among the heavy betting favorites going into tonight’s main event. However, rest assured the Toyota drivers will also be in the thick of things considering they have won 7 of the last 10 races this season including a 1-2 finish last week at a very similar layout at Iowa.

As stated during yesterday’s truck preview, I have always enjoyed racing at Richmond Raceway both from a fan perspective and from a betting perspective. From a fan perspective, Richmond typically produces close short track racing that is highlighted by tire wear and long-run speed. From the betting perspective, we can usually find confidence in the fact that the better drivers at Richmond usually find their way at the front of the field because they know how to manage their equipment and make speed over the long-runs. While these races at Richmond are usually top heavy from a betting perspective which limits ROI in futures formats, it also usually produces really sharp opportunities in H2H match-ups and prop bet formats which will be a point of focus this evening.

Before we dive into the Richmond statistics, practice observations, and other handicapping angles, I wanted to mention an important observation for both fantasy and betting purposes. If you look at the qualifying results, you may notice a wide array of top talents throughout the field. For example, Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick qualified back in the 30th and 32nd positions. Meanwhile, we have relatively surprising names like Josh Berry in 3rd, Connor Zilisch in 11th, and other slight surprise stories. While qualifying always produces some variety, most of the variety that you are seeing in the starting lineup is simply based on the qualifying order. The track was hot at the beginning of qualifying and cooled off significantly as the session progressed. Therefore drivers that had bad finishes at Iowa, like Larson and Reddick, were among the drivers that were on-track during the hottest portions of qualifying. We see a very clear trend throughout the field based on qualifying order and I don’t want that to confuse people going into tonight’s Cook Out 400.

Richmond Notes

• Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with 5 career wins at Richmond.
• Joey Logano (2), Kyle Larson (2), Brad Keselowski (2), Austin Dillon (2), Alex Bowman, and Chris Buescher are all former winners at Richmond.
• Austin Dillon has won the last two races at Richmond.
• Denny Hamlin has finished 1st or 2nd in 6 of the last 9 races at Richmond.
• Layne Riggs has finished in the Top 5 in 2 of 3 career starts at Richmond.
• Chandler Smith has finished in the Top 5 in 2 of his last 3 starts at Richmond.
• Christopher Bell has finished 6th or better in 7 of the last 9 races at Richmond.
• Joey Logano has finished 7th or better in 8 of the last 10 races at Richmond.
• Kyle Larson has finished 7th or better in 4 of the last 5 races at Richmond.
• Brad Keselowski has finished 9th or better in 3 of the last 4 races at Richmond.
• Chase Briscoe has finished 11th or worse in all 9 career starts at Richmond.
• Josh Berry has finished 14th or better in all 4 career starts at Richmond.
• Tyler Reddick has just one finish inside the Top 10 in 10 career starts at Richmond.
• Bubba Wallace has just one Top 10 finish in 14 career starts at Richmond.
• Denny Hamlin (109.5), Joey Logano (99.2), Bubba Wallace (97.8), Kyle Larson (97.2), and Christopher Bell (94.7) have the highest average driver ratings over the last 5 races at Richmond.
• There have been 5 cautions or less in the last 4 races at Richmond.
• The race winner has started from outside the Top 10 in 3 of the last 4 races at Richmond.

Additional Metrics

While I would typically refer bettors to our dynamic averages at the short tracks for recency bias at similar venues, I also took the time to compile loop data metrics from 2 of the last 3 races at North Wilkesboro and Iowa. Both of these short tracks have a lot of similar characteristics to Richmond and I believe looking at the combined performance results from both races will give us some insight into what we should expect later this evening.

Driver	Avg. Driver Rating	Start	Mid Race	Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Pct. Quality Passes	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Joey Logano	123.8	7	2.5	7.5	5.5	13	30	70	58.5	161.5	399.5
Ryan Blaney	111.1	1	9	7	8	11	53	63.6	34.5	65	399
Ty Gibbs	108.6	4	10.5	2.5	10	24	49.5	55.6	25	33.5	400
Denny Hamlin	106.7	18	3.5	3.5	7	8	38	71	24	4.5	400
Chase Briscoe	104.8	25	5.5	4.5	8.5	16	64	75.4	19.5	2.5	400
Christopher Bell	103.8	12.5	12	10.5	11.5	5.5	49.5	54.3	40	54	398.5
Bubba Wallace	92.3	26	12	9	11	24	49	57.1	17.5	21.5	399.5
William Byron	87.4	17	12.5	10.5	13.5	-3.5	42.5	54.4	5	0	399
Austin Dillon	83.4	9.5	18.5	16.5	13	-3	49.5	62.4	11	0	398
Chase Elliott	77.7	21	23.5	16	17.5	-11.5	38.5	38.3	20	9	398
Kyle Larson	74.2	14.5	27.5	24	21.5	11	16.5	57.1	11	0	390
Ross Chastain	74.2	11	14.5	17	17	2	17.5	47.3	8.5	20	398
Shane Van Gisbergen	73.6	15.5	16	17.5	15.5	-7.5	25.5	50	7.5	24.5	398.5
Carson Hocevar	73.2	11	17	22	17.5	-7.5	30	61.2	6	0	397.5
Josh Berry	70.2	20.5	23	20	19.5	6	53.5	58.7	3	0	274.5
Todd Gilliland	70.1	17.5	17	15	15.5	3.5	49	53	1	0	399
Zane Smith	63.8	21.5	18	19	19	5.5	30.5	44.2	1	0	398
Austin Cindric	63.3	13	23	21.5	19.5	-12	43.5	30.4	2	0	398
Connor Zilisch	62.4	20	21.5	21.5	21.5	-10	28.5	45.3	12.5	0	396
Brad Keselowski	62.3	13.5	13.5	17	19	2.5	25	31.8	4.5	3.5	398.5
Ryan Preece	62	28	15.5	15	19.5	3.5	20	22.9	0	0	399
Daniel Suarez	61.6	25	19	16	18	2	41.5	46	2	0.5	399
Noah Gragson	59.4	23	22.5	21	20.5	-2.5	21.5	27.6	6	0	397.5
Ty Dillon	59.2	26.5	15.5	20	19	-7.5	20.5	23.6	1	0	398.5
Chris Buescher	58.6	18	24	16.5	21.5	-10	21	23.5	4	0	398
A.J. Allmendinger	57.3	30	27	22.5	24.5	6.5	11	16.4	0	0	270
Riley Herbst	54.3	31	16.5	19.5	22.5	16.5	11	11.3	4	0	398
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	54	20	17.5	26	20	-9	39	33.9	2	0	395.5
John H. Nemechek	52.4	20	27	25	24	-9	15.5	14.6	6	0	397
Michael McDowell	49.3	13.5	14.5	24.5	20.5	-20.5	13.5	18.2	0	0	397.5
Erik Jones	48.6	8	23	28	23.5	-8	57	96.3	1	0	225.5
Alex Bowman	46	27.5	30.5	30	26.5	7.5	2	2	2	0	320
Tyler Reddick	43.7	5	32.5	33	29	-5	28.5	76	6.5	0	224
Austin Hill	41	28.5	28	29.5	28	-4.5	4	4.5	1	0	395.5
Cole Custer	38.4	28	30.5	28	28	-8	5	10	1	0	397
Cody Ware	32.8	35	23	30.5	29	-2	0	0	0	0	396.5
Chad Finchum	25.2	37	35	35	36	1	0	0	0	0	303

Betting Targets

In many ways, tonight’s race seems like a Team Penske vs. Joe Gibbs Racing showdown which has been the case for the last few weeks. Blaney and Logano have been performing well on the short tracks and seem to be trending in the right direction. While I don’t necessarily like Blaney’s resume at Richmond, I do believe that both drivers will be strong this evening. Meanwhile, Denny Hamlin has been the best driver at Richmond in the Next Gen Car and perhaps even over the last decade. Traditionally, I would put Christopher Bell in close proximity behind Hamlin due to skill set and talent at these flatter short tracks. However if you are going to make an argument for Bell, you must also consider last week’s winner Ty Gibbs who has been the 2nd best car at JGR throughout the season.

If we are going to look for deeper value, why would we ignore Austin Dillon at 25-1 odds? Dillon has been magical at Richmond over the last 2 years and always seems to get better as the laps wind down. Josh Berry and Bubba Wallace are some additional names that I have high expectations for tonight. Wallace has posted the 3rd best average driver rating over the last 5 races at Richmond despite not always getting the finishes to show for it. Likewise, Berry has found some speed in recent weeks and seems to be best at these types of layouts. While both drivers may be worthy of dark horse potential in futures formats, I like both drivers in H2H formats against mid-tier competitors. If you are looking for plus value betting options in prop bet formats, Shane Van Gisbergen is an excellent target that has much higher upside than current betting odds suggest. SVG’s odds are a product of his starting position but do not accurately represent his upside making him an ideal fantasy and prop bet target!

Draftkings 2026 Cook Out 400 Optimal Fantasy Lineup

2026 Cook Out 400 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Denny Hamlin +550 (1 unit)
Christopher Bell +750 (1 unit)
Bubba Wallce +1800 (.5 unit)
Austin Dillon +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

SVG +135 over Daniel Suarez (3 units)
Ty Gibbs -130 over Kyle Larson (2 units)
William Byron -130 over Tyler Reddick (2 units)

Two Team Parlay

Team Penske +200 wins Cook Out 400
SVG +450 finishes Top 10
Risking .5 unit to win: +800