2026 Window World 450 Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday July 19th, 2026. 7:00PM (EST)
Where: North Wilkesboro Speedway
TV: TNT

For many years, North Wilkesboro Speedway rested in the hills of North Carolina as a worn down and abandoned venue. The .625 speedway known for its aggressive and exciting short track racing was just a distant memory of NASCAR’s golden years. However a series of fortunate events happened to this former iconic speedway. Starting in 2019, the track was digitally scanned for sim-racing which helped revive interest around the speedway. Within the next 1-2 years, several million dollars in government grants was inherited during the pandemic to help secure funding to bring the speedway back to life. All of those efforts culminated when the Cup Series made their official return to North Wilkesboro for the 2023 All-Star Race. On Sunday, North Wilkesboro will take another successful step forward when the green flag waves for the Window World 450 which will be the first points-paying race the track has hosted in 30 years!

During North Wilkesboro’s revival with the All-Star Race over the last 3 previous seasons, the racing was solid but overall not great. The results of racing can be attributed more to the Next Gen Car than the speedway itself. However, the repaved surface that was needed at North Wilkesboro also did not help produce the long green flag racing and tire wear that the speedway typically produced. Additionally, the format of the All-Star Race did not provide much in the form of long green-flag racing either. For Sunday’s Window World 450, that will not be the case. By all stretches, tomorrow night’s race is relatively long at 450 laps. The track surface has a few years of weathering and aging. Additionally, GoodYear is bringing a softer tire which was used earlier this season at Martinsville. Therefore, we should have some optimism that the product of the racing will be better tomorrow night especially with the length of the race which will undoubtedly create a lot of strategy calls from the pit box.

Handicapping North Wilkesboro

From a handicapping perspective, we don’t really have a lot of reliable data in the form of track history. Due to the quirky format of the All-Star Races and the fact that some teams experiment with setups in those races, I don’t even feel strongly comfortable putting significant value into the way teams performed in those races. Without any reliable historical information, I believe our handicapping strategy must be centered around a plethora of handicapping angles with perhaps more focus on momentum, performance on all short tracks, and general short-track resumes. Luckily NASCAR was able to get in a full 50-minute practice session on Saturday after qualifying was rained out. Therefore we can combine some of those handicapping angles mentioned above to our practice observations to get a decent baseline for our expectations. With that said, this race still has a lot of unknowns and bettors should tread with caution.

Practice Observations

Ryan Blaney will start from the pole position Sunday after qualifying was rained out. The starting lineup is set by the rule book. Fortunately, NASCAR put a lot of effort into drying the track and pushing back the time of practice. Fortunately, teams and drivers were able to get a full practice session in late Saturday which is somewhat beneficial because tomorrow’s start time will be very similar to today’s practice time and overall track conditions. One important note from practice is that tire wear did not appear to be significant or relevant. There was some optimism that there would be more tire wear this week but that did not appear to be the case in practice.

In terms of specific practice observations, Christopher Bell dominated the speed charts. Bell posted the fastest lap of the session at 123.477mph and also laid down the best consecutive laps in nearly every category. Behind Bell, many of the expected short-track titans were also strong on the speed charts which included Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, and William Byron. All of those drivers appeared to be within striking distance on speed but maintaining speed throughout the long-runs tomorrow night will be the challenge. Behind some of those top names, Connor Zilisch and Riley Herbst were a few bottom-tier names that appeared to have a lot better speed than anyone would have expected going into practice. Meanwhile, Tyler Reddick, Carson Hocevar, and Chase Elliott were among the names that did not show nearly the speed everyone expected. Specifically, Reddick was well off the pace for someone that is battling for the regular season championship and it is clear that the #45 team was not trending in the right direction going into Saturday!

Betting Targets

Based on practice and several handicapping indicators, I believe Christopher Bell deserves the top rated spot going into tomorrow’s Window World 450. Bell showed really strong speed in practice and nobody can argue with the speed the Toyotas have shown in recent weeks. Add in the fact that Bell won the All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro last year, I believe he has a good shot to keep the Toyota hot streak alive. With that being said, Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Larson are all top candidate drivers for a track like North Wilkesboro. Those 3 drivers have won 11 of the last 20 races on short-tracks. Unfortunately, Blaney is coming off a win last week and will start from the pole which hurts his betting odds. As a result, I would probably pivot to Kyle Larson as the better value play among the heavy favorites.

Despite the fact this is a very chalky race in terms of betting odds, I do believe that William Byron is among the best dark horses on the board. Byron and the #24 team have found speed in recent weeks and he is getting a relatively generous number from an odds perspective. For that reason, I believe Byron is playable in all formats. If you are looking for deeper dark horses, Ross Chastain, Alex Bowman, and Riley Herbst are all among the options in deep H2H or prop bet formats. Chastain showed a lot of speed in practice but unfortunately will have to serve a pass-thru penalty after failing inspection 3 times. For Bowman and Herbst, both drivers are receiving really big numbers beside their names despite showing a lot of speed in practice and trending positively in recent weeks. Due to the fact that both drivers are starting towards the rear, they are ideal fantasy targets and perhaps are considerable prop bet targets that produce low-risk/high-yield options.

2026 Draftkings Window World 450 Optimal Lineup

2026 Window World 450 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Denny Hamlin +500 (1 unit)
Kyle Larson +800 (1 unit)
William Byron +1600 (.5 unit)
Alex Bowman +6600 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Christopher Bell -140 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
William Byron +150 wins Group C (Hocevar, Briscoe, Wallace)(2 units) *Caesars*
Joey Logano +250 wins Group B (Gibbs, Elliott, Reddick)(1 unit) *Caesars*
Alex Bowman +1400 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Riley Herbst +450 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Christopher Bell +250 wins Window World 450
Alex Bowman +200 finishes Top 10
Risking 1 unit to win: +950