2026 Quaker State 400 Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday July 12th, 2026. 7:00PM (EST)
Where: EchoPark Speedway
TV: TNT

Later tonight NASCAR’s Cup Series will make its return to EchoPark Speedway for the running of the Quaker State 400. Back in February, Tyler Reddick emerged from a series of chaotic late-race cautions to win the Autotrader 400 at EchoPark Speedway. The win was part of Reddick’s record-breaking start to the season as he became the first driver in history to start the season with 3 straight wins. While Reddick’s win back in February was impressive, it was also a bit circumstantial due to the number of wrecks and late race cautions which took out several of the leaders. The racing at EchoPark Speedway has become extremely volatile, even for a drafting-style track. As a result, we must approach tonight’s Quaker State 400 with a lot of focus around betting value and ROI.

Back in February, the one observation that I picked up from watching that race is that the Toyota speed was apparent earlier this season. Perhaps we did not pay it a ton of attention because of the superspeedway style racing that EchoPark Speedway produces. In particular, the speed from the 23XI Racing cars was most impressive. Both Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace produced the best average running position by a relatively wide margin. Both drivers combined to lead just less than 100 laps and appeared to be the class of the field in the speed department. The other observation I made from watching the February race was that all of the Hendrick Motorsports cars were very strong. I think that is also an important note because the Hendrick Motorsports cars have been showing more and more speed on a near weekly basis which is a good sign going into tonight’s main event.

With those things considered, we cannot base any betting considerations solely off speed from the February race or even recent performance speed. At the drafting style tracks, we must consider a number of handicapping variables. We must identify the trends of drivers that excel at this type of racing, look at stats specifically at Atlanta, and consider even other variables that I don’t have time to discuss. The best way to handicap these drafting style races is to identify the drivers that are always putting themselves at the front of the field and then identify the drivers with the best betting value out of those drivers. Then we have to hope for a little luck that teams will execute the correct strategy and our betting targets can survive the chaos to have a shot for victory in the closing laps!

Cup Notes – Atlanta

• Chase Elliott, William Byron, Brad Keselowski, and Joey Logano are tied for the most wins (2) among active drivers at Atlanta.
• Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Daniel Suarez, and Tyler Reddick are also former winners at Atlanta.
• Tyler Reddick has finished 4th or better in each of the last two races at Atlanta.
• Carson Hocevar has finished 4th or better in 2 of the last 3 races at Atlanta.
• Ryan Blaney has finished 4th or better in 3 of the last 5 races at Atlanta.
• Christopher Bell has finished 4th or better in 2 of the last 4 races at Atlanta.
• Alex Bowman has finished in the Top 5 in 2 of the last 4 races at Atlanta
• Daniel Suarez has finished in the Top 5 in 4 of the last 6 races at Atlanta.
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr has finished 6th or better in 3 of the last 5 races at Atlanta.
• Zane Smith has finished 7th in each of the last two races at Atlanta.
• Ross Chastain has finished 8th or better in 3 of the last 5 races at Atlanta.
• Bubba Wallace has finished 9th or better in 3 of the last 5 races at Atlanta.
• Chase Elliott has the best average finishing position (9.1) of all drivers over the last 10 races at Atlanta.
• Chevrolet drivers have won 6 of the last 10 races at Atlanta.
• There have been at least 10 cautions in 4 of the last 5 races at Atlanta.
• The eventual race winner has started from 15th position or worse in 4 of the last 6 races at Atlanta.

Dynamic Averages

One of my favorite handicapping angles for drafting style venues is to look at how drivers have performed in “recent” races at similar venues. By looking at recent drafting style metrics, we can potentially identify drivers that are underrated/overrated from an odds perspective. If you look at our dynamic averages for the superspeedways, you may be surprised to see names like Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Carson Hocevar, and Alex Bowman are the drivers that are much lower than you would expect in their respective averages. Meanwhile, Joey Logano continues to prove that he is consistently the best rated driver at the drafting venues. Additionally, Chris Buescher and Ross Chastain are among the drivers that have performed better than most expected. Lastly, I will mention that there are several Toyotas high in these dynamic averages which is an indicator of the speed that the Toyotas have shown everywhere this season.

Betting Targets

Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano qualified in the 1-2 positions to put Team Penske on the front row for tonight’s Quaker State 400. I purposely did not mention practice or qualifying results because I don’t think it adds any significant handicapping value for this style of racing. However, Team Penske’s qualifying efforts did reassure me that Logano remains the top “rated” driver going into tonight’s race. I think Logano is the most justifiable pick among the drivers in the category of betting favorites. To be fair, I think you could mark the argument for a lot of drivers at less than 20-1 odds, especially the Hendrick Motorsports drivers. All of the Hendrick Motorsports drivers are good superspeedway drivers and have shown really good speed already this weekend.

With that being said, we still must find drivers that are producing better “value.” Chris Buescher and Ross Chastain are among the names that fit that bill. Both drivers are getting much better value than the favorites while producing similar, if not better, performance metrics at this style of racing. Meanwhile, Alex Bowman and Daniel Suarez are among the drivers getting even better value. Both drivers have been competing for the lead in the final laps at Atlanta in numerous recent races and are getting really good value going into tonight’s race. For even deeper value, Zane Smith and AJ Allmendinger are a couple of names that seem to always overachieve at these races. Both drivers are starting towards the rear of the field which makes them solid fantasy choices. More importantly, both drivers can be considered in prop bet and even futures (win) formats based on the huge numbers beside their names that create ideal low-risk/high-reward possibilities.

2026 Draftkings Quaker State 400 Optimal Lineup

2026 Quaker State 400 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Joey Logano +1000 (1 unit)
Chris Buescher +2500 (.5 unit)
Ross Chastain +2800 (.5 unit)
Daniel Suarez +2800 (.5 unit)
Alex Bowman +3500 (.5 unit)
Zane Smith +5000 (.25 unit)
Erik Jones +5000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ty Dillon +450 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)
Brad Keselowski +360 wins Group C (Byron, Hocevar, Larson) *Caesars* (.5 unit)
Alex Bowman +400 wins Group C (Elliott, Byron, Larson) *Caesars* (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Toyota +250 wins Quaker State 400
Zane Smith +250 finishes Top 10 *Caesars*
Risking 1 unit to win: +1150