2026 eero 400 Betting Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday July 5th, 2026. 6:00PM (EST)
Where: Chicagoland Speedway
TV: TNT

Following a string of West Coast road course battles, the NASCAR Cup Series gets back to oval racing this Sunday with a landmark return to Chicagoland Speedway for the first time since 2019. Fans have been eagerly awaiting this weekend’s revival of Chicagoland Speedway because this 1.5-mile layout mirrors the prestigious, tire-chewing layouts like Darlington and Homestead. With a uniquely abrasive, low-grip surface, Chicagoland will challenge drivers as they search for a grip around this multi-groove speedway. For those reasons, we believe the racing should be good and bettors/handicappers should be optimistic for a potentially strong betting opportunity!

When tracks like Darlington, Homestead, and Chicagoland arrive on the schedule, I always get pretty excited from a handicapping perspective. The reason I get excited is because these tracks are typically strong handicapping tracks. At these low-grip tracks, the driver will be making the biggest difference from behind the wheel to keep speed in the car throughout a green flag run. As a result, we don’t see the big advantages/disadvantages in single lap speed or setup speed. While those things still exist (Toyota speed), we must look for the drivers that have typically excelled at these low-grip tracks. Since driver trends are more reliable than recency trends, we can put heavy confidence towards a lot of our selections or betting targets.

The unique betting aspect to this weekend’s return to Chicagoland Speedway is the elephant in the room in the fact that the Cup Series has not competed at this track since 2019. As a result, we have numerous drivers that have never raced at Chicagoland Speedway. For the drivers with experience, this will still be their first start at Chicagoland in the Next Gen Car. Therefore, I would not rely heavily on any prior Chicagoland performances. Instead, I believe the best handicapping angle this week is looking at how drivers have performed in the Next Gen at Homestead/Darlington. Once we have those metrics, we can build a baseline of expectations for Sunday’s eero 400!

Cup Notes – Chicagoland

*The data below is mostly informational this week. We are not basing any betting picks solely on prior Chicagoland Speedway performances.

• Brad Keselowski leads all active drivers with two career wins at Chicagoland.
• Denny Hamlin and Alex Bowman are the only other former winners at Chicagoland.
• Kyle Larson finished in the runner-up position in his last two starts at Chicagoland.
• Chase Elliott finished 3rd or better in 2 of 4 career starts at Chicagoland.
• Ryan Blaney finished 6th or better in 2 of 4 career starts at Chicagoland.
• Denny Hamlin finished 7th or better in 5 of the last 6 races at Chicagoland.
• Erik Jones finished 7th or better in each of the last two races at Chicagoland.
• Brad Keselowski has finished 8th or better in each of the last 9 races at Chicagoland.
• Joey Logano has finished 8th or better in each of the last 6 races at Chicagoland.
• Alex Bowman finished in the Top 10 in each of the last 3 races at Chicagoland.
• The eventual race winner has started 8th or better in 3 of the last 4 races at Chicagoland.
• There have been 5 cautions or less in each of the last 4 races at Chicagoland.
• Toyota teams have won 4 of the last 5 races at Chicagoland.

Darlington and Homestead

The following data reflects the average driver rating of the last 5 combined races at Darlington and Homestead:

Driver	Average Driver Rating
Tyler Reddick	120.4
Ryan Blaney	107.4
Denny Hamlin	104.0
William Byron	103.7
Chase Briscoe	98.4
Bubba Wallace	93.1
Chris Buescher	91.6
Chase Elliott	85.1
Kyle Larson	83.2
Martin Truex Jr	82.6
Ryan Preece	81.6
Austin Cindric	80.3
A.J. Allmendinger	79.7
Alex Bowman	79.5
Christopher Bell	77.8
Brad Keselowski	74.5
Carson Hocevar	72.9
Erik Jones	71.0
Ty Gibbs	70.6
Ross Chastain	70.5
Zane Smith	68.2
Joey Logano	65.8
Daniel Suarez	65.7
Noah Gragson	64.2
Kyle Busch	64.0
Josh Berry	62.1
Austin Dillon	60.2
Michael McDowell	59.3
John H. Nemechek	58.9
Connor Zilisch	56.2
Justin Haley	52.2
Todd Gilliland	49.1
Shane Van Gisbergen	48.0
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	46.6
Harrison Burton	45.8
Justin Allgaier	45.5
Ty Dillon	43.3
Austin Hill	42.0
Cole Custer	40.9
Riley Herbst	40.3
Daniel Hemric	39.7
Kaz Grala	31.2
Cody Ware	29.5
Corey LaJoie	29.5
Derek Kraus	27.0
J.J. Yeley	24.6
Timmy Hill	24.5
Chad Finchum	23.7

Practice and Qualifying Observations

Last week, Denny Hamlin emerged as the points leader for the first time this season after Tyler Reddick suffered mechanical issues at Sonoma. However before the two weeks of road course racing, Denny Hamlin had become the hottest driver in the sport winning the last 3 oval races at Nashville, Michigan, and Pocono. In each of those 3 races, Hamlin won the pole and won the race. I mention those facts because Hamlin returned to prominence on Saturday by capturing his 4th straight pole on the ovals. As a result, Hamlin will be looking to go for 4 for 4 in terms of poles/wins over the last 4 oval races. Behind Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Chris Buescher, Brad Keselowski, and Ty Gibbs rounded out the top 5 starting positions.

In practice before qualifying, Kyle Larson actually appeared to be slightly faster than Hamlin. Larson posted the best overall average in practice and showed really solid long run speed. Meanwhile, Chase Briscoe, Tyler Reddick, Ty Gibbs, and Ryan Blaney were the other drivers that appeared to be within striking distance in the long-run speed department. On the other side of the fence, Joey Logano, Erik Jones, and Carson Hocevar were among the names that were trending well under expectations following practice. Both Jones and Logano had put together several quality performances in recent races on the ovals. However, both drivers were well off the pace in practice on Saturday. Meanwhile, I throw Hocevar into that mix because he is one of the drivers that you would expect to be really fast at a place like Chicagoland where the drivers make such a huge difference on the stopwatch. However, Hocevar was in the bottom half of the field in all speed departments on Saturday!

Betting Targets

While Hamlin is the obvious choice to continue his hot-streak, I believe Kyle Larson may be the sharp pick for Sunday. Larson and the #5 team have been getting better on a near weekly basis. In fact, Larson current ranks #1 in our dynamic averages with the best average driver rating over the last 5 races. Due to Larson’s current momentum, handicapping stats at similar layouts, and elite wheelman skills at a track like Chicagoland, I believe we can make the argument that Larson should be the overall favorite going into Sunday. Behind Hamlin and Larson, I believe Tyler Reddick is an obvious 3rd option. The problem with Reddick is that he is receiving odds that mirror Larson and Hamlin. For that result, I have no interest in backing the #45 this week.

Behind the outright favorites, Chase Briscoe and Ryan Blaney are solid intermediate options. Both drivers have been running well in recent weeks and are among the best drivers on layouts similar to Chicagoland. For those reasons, I believe both drivers can be targeted in all formats. Deeper into the field, Chris Buescher and Alex Bowman are the drivers that have much higher upside than current betting odds suggest. Buescher has been the best performing Ford driver in the last several weeks. While Ford has struggled in speed, Chicagoland provides Buescher a higher ceiling than on normal weeks. Bowman is a former winner that had a lousy practice. However, the #48 team appeared to be focusing on long-run speed throughout the practice and I believe their ceiling is much higher than current betting odds suggest. As a result, both drivers can be considered in H2H and prop bet formats.

2026 Draftkings eero 400 Optimal Lineup

2026 eero 400 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Kyle Larson +500 (1.5 units)
Ryan Blaney +1000 (.75 unit)
Chase Briscoe +1400 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Kyle Larson -175 over Christopher Bell (2 units)
Chase Briscoe -115 over Ty Gibbs (2 units)
Number of lead changes over (-130) 19.5 (2 units)
Todd Gilliland +370 over Carson Hocevar (1 unit)
Riley Herbst +500 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Joe Gibbs Racing +125 wins eero 400
Erik Jones +275 finishes Top 10
Risking 1 unit to win: +775