2026 Cuervo 300 Betting Race Picks

Date/Time: Saturday July 4th, 2026. 5:30PM (EST)
Where: Chicagoland Speedway
TV: CW

As America celebrates Independence Day, NASCAR makes its long-awaited return to Chicagoland Speedway for the first time since the 2019 season. The action begins on Saturday when the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series takes center stage for the running of the Cuervo 300 at the rugged 1.5-mile layout that is known for its abrasive multi-groove racing surface that also yields extreme tire wear. Needless to say, Chicagoland Speedway promises to deliver some fantastic racing over the next two days and we should embrace the betting opportunity from a venue that has historically been favorable to handicappers and bettors alike.

In many ways, Chicagoland Speedway can be compared to tracks like Homestead-Miami Speedway and Darlington Raceway simply based on the similarities between grip and tire wear. Homestead and Chicagoland are also very similar in the fact that both tracks offer multi-groove racing where the grip conditions can change throughout the course of an event. Therefore, the drivers that are able to search and find extra grip while managing their tires will undoubtedly find their way to the front over the course of a green flag run. From a spectator perspective, this style of racing is very entertaining because we will see a lot of “comers and goers” as the sport likes to say with each green flag run throughout the weekend.

The only downside to this exciting racing from a handicapping and betting perspective is that we have not seen any recent racing at Chicagoland since 2019. However, I don’t think that is a deal breaker nor necessarily means that we cannot make some sharp predictions based on prior performances at similar layouts. The O’Reilly Series was scheduled to hold their first practice session earlier today (Friday) to give us our first on-track observations at Chicagoland but unfortunately thunderstorms postponed the session. As a result, NASCAR has elected to move practice to Saturday and cancel qualifying which means the lineup for the Cuervo 300 will be set by the rule book which puts Connor Zilisch on the pole.

Handicapping the Cuervo 300

While we will not be able to observe practice speeds until Saturday, I wanted to put together some visual metrics to build our handicapping baseline. I went back and pulled performance data at the last two races at Darlington (2025/2026), Kansas (2025/2026), and Homestead (2025) because those tracks have the most similarities to Chicagoland Speedway. The good news is that all of those races contained the majority of the competitors that will be competing on Saturday. The current entry list for the Cuervo 300 features just 3 Cup Series drivers in rookie Connor Zilisch, Cole Custer, and Chase Elliott. Custer and Elliott have only competed once in our data set below which is a noteworthy outlier. However, Zilisch has competed in the majority of the data set due to his full-time O’Reilly Series duties last year. Therefore, this data set should, at minimum, give us a strong baseline surrounding how drivers have performed at similar layouts to Chicagoland!

Driver (races competed)	Average Driver Rating
Justin Allgaier: (5 races)	123.5
Brandon Jones: (5 races)	119.5
Chase Elliott: (1 race)	108.8
Sheldon Creed: (5 races)	102.9
Corey Day: (2 races)	102.4
Brent Crews: (1 race)	102.3
Connor Zilisch: (3 races)	101.6
Jesse Love: (5 races)	99.5
Sam Mayer: (5 races)	96.3
Cole Custer: (1 race)	91.5
Taylor Gray: (5 races)	91.2
Sammy Smith: (5 races)	89.1
Nick Sanchez: (4 races)	86.3
Austin Hill: (5 races)	81.1
Carson Kvapil: (5 races)	78.1
Ryan Sieg: (5 races)	77.4
Harrison Burton: (5 races)	74.9
Dean Thompson: (5 races)	71.1
Brennan Poole: (5 races)	63.9
Anthony Alfredo: (5 races)	63.3
William Sawalich: (5 races)	63.2
Parker Retzlaff: (5 races)	62.1
Rajah Caruth: (3 races)	61.7
Jeb Burton: (5 races)	60.9

Betting Targets

If you look at current betting odds and compare those odds against our handicapping metrics, Justin Allgaier and Brandon Jones stand out among the competition. Obviously, Allgaier has been among the best drivers on a week to week basis. However, our performance metrics confirm that he belongs among the outright betting favorites. Meanwhile, Jones is more modestly placed in the 10-1 betting range. With those things in mind, I rarely consider backing Jones for the outright win because his win percentage is so dismal. However, I can confirm there are enough handicapping metrics to support Jones as a considerable betting option especially in H2H formats.

Based on the current betting odds, perhaps bettors should be relatively conservative. Along with Allgaier, Chase Elliott, Connor Zilisch, and Brent Crews are all receiving 5-1 odds or less. All of those drivers have a solid likelihood of contending for a victory on Saturday but their odds don’t support the likelihood of their chances to win which means it appears they are overvalued. With that being said, I do believe that Crews is starting to emerge into an elite weekly threat. Crews has finished 3rd or better in 3 of the last 4 races across different layouts and appears to be on the border of breaking out for a hot streak. I’m just not sure if this is the week we should double down on the rookie or possibly standby because Chicagoland is such a difficult venue to conquer.

Outside of futures (win) bets, I believe bettors should focus primarily towards H2H options on Saturday which likely provide the sharpest value. Sheldon Creed, Sammy Smith, and Anthony Alfredo are the group of drivers that appear to be significantly undervalued based on current betting odds. Both Creed and Smith have performed very well at the low-grip/rugged venues and have higher upside than current betting odds suggest. Meanwhile, one of the biggest stories emerging from the garage in the O’Reilly Series is the performance surrounding Viking Motorsports teams of Anthony Alfredo and Parker Retzlaff. Both drivers are coming off a top 5 finish at Sonoma and have been showing strong performance trends. Alfredo is currently listed at 100-1 odds but has much higher upside than those odds suggest. As a result, Alfredo is an option that can be considered in low-end H2H match-ups or prop bet formats.

2026 Draftkings Cuervo 300 Optimal Lineup

2026 Cuervo 300 Race Picks

*More picks may be added. Check back until “FINAL” status is displayed.*

Connor Zilisch +400 (1 unit)
Brandon Jones +1000 (.5 unit)
Sheldon Creed +1800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Sheldon Creed -115 over Austin Hill (3 units)

Two Team Parlay

Justin Allgaier +285 wins Cuervo 300
Kyle Larson +500 wins eero 400
Risking .5 unit to win: +1105