2026 Sports Illustrated Resorts 250 Betting Race Picks

Date/Time: Saturday May 30th, 2026. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Nashville Superspeedway
TV: CW

Later this evening, the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series will continue this weekend’s racing festivities in Music City with the running of the Sports Illustrated Resorts 250 at Nashville Superspeedway. Last night, we witnessed an excellent Truck Series’ race to kick off the weekend in Nashville which was highlighted by Layne Riggs who was able to pass Chandler Smith and Rajah Caruth in the closing laps. So far this season, the O’Reilly Series has consistently produced the best racing and that will be our expectations again this evening!

While last night’s Truck Series’ race was relatively easy to handicap, today’s Sports Illustrated Resorts 250 is slightly more difficult simply based on the diverse talent throughout the field. With that being said, Kyle Larson will be joining the action this afternoon with the O’Reilly Series regulars. The Cup Series star has been really strong in O’Reilly Series competition already this year. Larson has won twice this season in just 4 starts in the O’Reilly Series with wins at Las Vegas and Texas. In fact, Larson has finished no worse than 4th in all 4 starts this season in the O’Reilly Series.

Needless to say, Larson will be the overall betting favorite heading into this afternoon’s on-track activities and will likely stay that way until the green flag drops. The question for this race is who are the contenders behind Larson that may be able to steal a victory if the Cup Series’ star cannot get the job done? Justin Allgaier and Corey Day have been the best two drivers in the series throughout the season with 5 combined victories. Both drivers would likely be the next best options simply based on the speed each driver has shown throughout the year. However, Nashville has a habit of producing some surprise names at the front of the field. Therefore, we will be looking at numerous handicapping factors in an attempt to nail another betting lineup this afternoon!

Handicapping Nashville

Even though the O’Reilly Series has visited Nashville regularly for each of the past 4 years, it is one of those tracks that really stands alone in the handicapping realm. Nashville Superspeedway is a 1.33 mile D-shaped oval that is fully concrete. The fully concrete surface is one of the unique factors because it is the only track over 1-mile in length that is fully concrete. For those that are unaware, concrete surfaces have a different “feel” behind the wheel in terms of tire grip.Additionally, the track’s grip level can change a bit over the course of the race as rubber is laid down. In terms of size, Nashville Superspeedway feels like an intermediate superspeedway but it requires precise lane choice and wrapping the car around the corners which is more similar to short-track style racing. From a handicapping perspective, we must observe prior performances at Nashville Superspeedway, prior performances on concrete surfaces, and ultimately gauge the current environment of how teams are performing because all of those factors will likely culminate into giving us our best expectations this afternoon!

O’Reilly Notes – Nashville

• Justin Allgaier leads all active drivers with two career wins at Nashville. *Allgaier is the only former winner in the field at Nashville.
• Allgaier posted a nearly perfect average driver rating (149.7) at Nashville last year en route to victory.
• Kyle Larson has won 4 of his last 7 starts in O’Reilly Series competition.
• Austin Hill has finished 4th in 2 of his last 3 starts at Nashville.
• Justin Allgaier has finished 4th or better in 6 of his last 9 starts at Nashville.
• Sam Mayer has finished in the Top 5 in 3 of 4 career starts at Nashville.
• Jesse Love has finished 8th or better in two career starts at Nashville.
• Corey Day finished 11th in his only start at Nashville last year.
• Carson Kvapil has finished 12 or better in two career starts at Nashville.
• Brandon Jones has finished 13th or worse in his last 4 starts at Nashville.
• Sheldon Creed has finished 17th or worse in 3 of 4 career starts at Nashville.
• There have been 6 cautions or less in 3 of the last 4 races at Nashville.
• The eventual race winner has started from the Top 5 in 4 of the last 6 races at Nashville.
• Chevrolet drivers have won 3 of the last 4 races at Nashville.

Betting Targets

I don’t think there is any question that Kyle Larson is the rightful betting favorite going into this afternoon’s Sports Illustrated Resorts 250. Larson has been really dominant in the O’Reilly Series and has finished no worse than 4th in his last 10 starts. A perhaps more impressive stat is that Larson has led laps in all 10 of his last starts. Larson has scored 5 wins over his last 10 starts in the series and has led more than 100 laps in 3 of the 5 races that he did not win. Needless to say, those are some undeniable dominating metrics. As a result, we must consider Larson the top betting threat going into the afternoon despite the minimal betting value in terms of futures (win) odds. Perhaps we can find ways to have exposure to Larson while creating better ROI by parlaying Larson with Sunday’s Cracker Barrel 400.

Behind Larson, Justin Allgaier is the easy choice for the next best option. Allgaier has beaten Larson straight-up a few times recently and I would argue has the better car/team on a weekly basis due to his full-time status. Like Larson, Allgaier is currently receiving relatively conservative betting odds which means he is not an automatic play based on suggested win percentage with Larson in the field. Instead, I would look for better betting value for dark horses. Sam Mayer, Corey Day, and Brent Crews are all strong 2nd-tier options. I believe Mayer is the sharpest pick out of that group with the best odds. Mayer has been really strong at Nashville throughout his career and was stout two weeks ago at Dover which is another fully concrete surface. Austin Hill and Rajah Caruth are some of my top targets in H2H formats. Hill is getting near 20-1 odds despite the fact he has never finished worse than 9th at Nashville and has finished 4th in 2 of the last 3 starts. Based on the drivers within Hill’s betting range, I think he is an ideal H2H target. Meanwhile, Caruth is not in the best equipment this week with the #32 team but he has been really stout at Nashville in the Truck Series and I’m willing to bet he has higher upside than current betting odds suggest!

2026 Draftkings Sports Illustrated Resorts 250 Optimal Lineup

***TBD after Qualifying***

2026 Sports Illustrated Resorts 250 Race Picks

*More picks may be added. Check back until “FINAL” status is displayed.*

Justin Allgaier +350 (1.5 units)
Sam Mayer +1400 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Sam Mayer -115 over Jesse Love (3 units)
Austin Hill -115 over Brandon Jones (3 units)

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Larson +150 wins Sports Illustrated Resorts 250
Bubba Wallace +170 finishes Top 10 in Cracker Barrel 400
Risking 1 unit to win: +575