2025 Goodyear 400 Betting Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday March 22nd, 2026. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Darlington Raceway
TV: FOX

Over the last few weeks, we have witnessed fantastic racing in the Cup Series which has been rare in the Next Gen era. Following an exciting race at Phoenix for the first time in ages under a new rules package, Las Vegas delivered with another fantastic race which resulted in Denny Hamlin earning his 61st career win by holding off Chase Elliott in the closing laps of the Pennzoil 400. On Sunday, expectations are sky-high as the Cup Series debuts the higher horsepower rules package at Darlington Raceway for the running of the Goodyear 400. Darlington Raceway has always been a “drivers” track and this year’s rules package should help emphasize that message on Sunday!

Along with the extra horsepower, the other major component to this week’s rules changes includes many significant aero changes specifically to the underbody of the car that proved to be a handful at Phoenix. If the cars were a handful at Phoenix, we can only imagine the level of difficulty that will be in-play on Sunday at Darlington Raceway. Darlington Raceway has rightfully earned many nicknames such as The Lady in Black and The Track Too Tough To Tame due to the extremely narrow and aged racing surface that produces tremendous grip issues combined with high tire wear. Unlike most venues in the Cup Series, Darlington requires drivers to manage equipment and tire wear like no other.

Needless to say, single lap speed like we saw in Saturday’s qualifying is essentially irrelevant. The drivers that are able to save tires and/or produce the least amount of fall-off are going to be the ones at the front of the field when everything is said and done. The good news about the racing that Darlington produces is that it usually provides strong betting opportunities especially in the form of H2H match-ups. The downside is that betting odds are usually somewhat overvalued because the best “drivers” at Darlington are always heavily favored. However, we will take the time to dig through betting odds, prior stats, and discuss other handicapping angles in order to hopefully produce another winning betting card!

Darlington – Cup Notes

• Denny Hamlin has the most wins (5) among active drivers at Darlington.
• Brad Keselowski (2), Erik Jones (2), Chase Briscoe (2), William Byron, Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, and Joey Logano are all former winners at Darlington.
• Tyler Reddick (111.4), William Byron (106.4), Denny Hamlin (103.4), Bubba Wallace (95.1), and Kyle Larson (94.7) have the highest average driver ratings over the last 6 races at Darlington.
• Chase Briscoe has won 2 of the last 3 races at Darlington.
• Christopher Bell has finished 3rd in 2 of the last 3 races at Darlington.
• Tyler Reddick has finished 4th or better in 5 of the last 8 races at Darlington.
• Bubba Wallace has finished 7th or better in 4 of the last 6 races at Darlington.
• William Byron has finished 8th or better in 5 of the last 7 races at Darlington.
• Kyle Busch has finished in the Top 10 in each of the last 3 races at Darlington.
• Chris Buescher has finished in the Top 10 in 5 of the last 6 races at Darlington.
• Ross Chastain has finished 11th or better in each of the last 5 races at Darlington.
• Austin Dillon has finished 15th or worse in each of the last 6 races at Darlington.
• Daniel Suarez has finished 15th or worse in each of the last 6 races at Darlington.
• Ryan Blaney has finished 18th or worse in 3 of the last 4 races at Darlington.
• There have been 7 cautions or more in 8 of the last 9 races at Darlington.
• The eventual race winner has started from the Top 3 positions in each of the last 4 races at Darlington.

Practice Observations

Tyler Reddick captured the pole for the Goodyear 400 on Saturday with a fast lap of 169.152mph in qualifying. Bubba Wallace, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, and Brad Keselowski rounded out the top 5 starting positions. However as I stated earlier, single lap speeds are not worth anything but early track position at Darlington. Our handicapping focus is centered around trying to identify the drivers that will be best in “race speed” over the longer haul. In practice on Saturday, I thought Austin Cindric, Carson Hocevar, and Brad Keselowski were among the drivers that showed speed at the onset of practice. Once the track rubbered in and got closer to “race” conditions, I thought Tyler Reddick and Kyle Larson easily stood out in comparison to the competition. Reddick led many of the consecutive lap categories and showed the least amount of fall-off. However, Larson was also running some really impressive laps at the end of practice.

Over the last two weeks, I have consistently mentioned that the Toyotas seem to have a clear speed advantage. Based on Saturday’s practice, I believe that trend still holds true. All of the Toyotas showed strong speed in practice and while I don’t believe they will be quite as dominant as we saw at Las Vegas; I do believe they still have the speed advantage going into race day. As a result, Bubba Wallace, Ty Gibbs, and Chase Briscoe are some names that are definitely trending in the right direction following strong practice sessions on Saturday where they displayed solid long-run speed. Outside of those popular names, John Hunter Nemechek and Shane Van Gisbergen were some really deep names that appeared to have more speed than most would have expected. Perhaps both of those drivers are worth a look in fantasy formats.

Betting Targets

Before Tyler Reddick won the pole for Sunday’s Goodyear 400, I had Reddick very high on my betting list because he has been so good at Darlington throughout the years despite not getting a victory combined with the fact that the Toyota teams have been so strong. Unfortunately, Reddick’s pole winning speed on Saturday killed any “value” on the #45 car going into race day. With that said, I do believe that Reddick is deserving of being among the outright betting favorites along with Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin based on various handicapping angles. The problem is that Reddick has been bet down to as low as 3-1 odds at many major books which is simply too absurd for a venue like Darlington that can create challenges and hostility.

Based on current betting odds, Chase Elliott and Bubba Wallace may be some of the best intermediate long shots for the win in the Goodyear 400. Elliott is excellent at managing the type of race that I expect to unfold on Sunday and fresh off an impressive runner-up finish last week. Meanwhile, Wallace is one of the most underrated Darlington talents in the field and is clearly benefiting from the speed of the Toyotas. Wallace is 2nd in the points, starting from the 2nd position, and has the resume at Darlington to warrant legitimate betting consideration. Strictly for H2H and prop bet formats, Chris Buescher and Carson Hocevar are among the drivers that I have pegged that should outrun the drivers within their betting ranges. Meanwhile, Connor Zilisch and Shane Van Gisbergen are among some low salary cap drivers that could be worth a look in fantasy formats.

2025 Draftkings Goodyear 400 Optimal Lineup

2025 Goodyear 400 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Denny Hamlin +800 (.75 unit)
Chase Elliott +1400 (.5 unit)
Bubba Wallace +1600 (.5 unit)
Christopher Bell +1600 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Prop Bets

Chase Briscoe -130 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
Bubba Wallace -135 over Ty Gibbs (2 units)
Chase Elliott +125 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)

Two Team Parlay

Tyler Reddick +350 wins Goodyear 400
Ross Chastain +300 finishes Top 10
Risking .5 unit to win: +850