2026 GOVX 200 Betting Race Picks

Date/Time: Saturday March 7th, 2026. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Phoenix Raceway
TV: FS1

Later this evening, the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series will take center stage at Phoenix Raceway for the running of the GOVX 200. In previous years, Phoenix Raceway has been the site of NASCAR’s championship weekend at season’s end. While the championship venue has moved to Homestead-Miami Speedway this year, Phoenix will still play an important role in the playoffs at the end of the year and this weekend’s races between the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series and the Cup Series will be an important first stop of the season before both series returns this fall.

On Friday, the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series held practice and qualifying sessions in preparation for this evening’s GOVX 200. At the end of both sessions, Taylor Gray won the pole for this evening’s race with a speed of 130.743mph. The pole was Gray’s first at Phoenix in his young career and 4th overall in just his 2nd year in the series. Behind Gray, Jesse Love will start 2nd. Love won the series finale at Phoenix last November and has shown good speed so far this weekend. Meanwhile, Brandon Jones, Anthony Alfredo, and Brent Crews rounded out the top 5 starting positions.

From a betting standpoint, it is important to note that William Byron will be piloting the #88 car for J.R. Motorsports. Byron entered the weekend, along with Justin Allgaier, as the outright betting favorites and both drivers should be big threats for the win this evening. Unfortunately, betting odds have offered minimal value among the favorites. Therefore, we will need to discuss the drivers that have the best likelihood of visiting victory lane this evening and also find the drivers that offer us the best paths to profits. Since futures (win) odds have been somewhat disappointing, we will put some heavier focus towards H2H match-ups and props as alternative betting options!

Phoenix – ORAPS Notes

• Justin Allgaier has the most wins (2) among active drivers at Phoenix.
• William Byron, Sammy Smith, and Jesse Love are also former winners at Phoenix.
• Brandon Jones has finished 4th or better in each of the last 2 races at Phoenix.
• Justin Allgaier has finished in the Top 5 in each of the last 3 races at Phoenix.
• Taylor Gray has finished 7th or better in both career starts at Phoenix.
• Sheldon Creed has finished 8th or better in 6 of his last 7 starts at Phoenix.
• Jesse Love has finished 9th or better in all 4 career starts at Phoenix.
• Austin Hill has finished in the Top 10 in 6 of the last 7 races at Phoenix.
• Sammy Smith has finished in the Top 10 in 5 of 7 career starts at Phoenix.
• Sam Mayer has finished outside the Top 10 in 6 of 8 career starts at Phoenix.
• The race winner has started from the Top 10 in 10 of the last 11 races.
• Toyota drivers have won 4 of the last 7 races at Phoenix.
• There have been 6 cautions or less in 3 of the last 4 races at Phoenix.

Practice Observations

In practice on Friday, Jeb Burton topped the charts with the fastest lap of the evening with a speed of 129.833mph. Burton was the surprise story of practice with not only the top single lap time but he also paced the field with the best 5 and 10 lap averages. Burton has failed to crack the Top 10 in his last 9 starts at Phoenix but has shown a promising start to the weekend. With that stated, I would not make any significant note to single lap speeds in our observations. Most drivers posted their best single lap speed during the first few laps on the track when track conditions were cool. During the latter stages of practice that were closer to race conditions, I thought Justin Allgaier, Sammy Smith, and Taylor Gray were among the drivers that displayed excellent long-run speed with minimal fall-off. William Byron was close to those drivers as well which also puts him within striking range as well. I would also mention names like Brent Crews and Carson Kvapil who both appeared to show better speed than most would have expected.

Betting Targets

In our early picks, I pulled the trigger on Justin Allgaier at 4-1 odds because I thought there was a high possibility that Allgaier would qualify well and his value would diminish. Instead, Allgaier’s odds improved due to a disappointing 17th place qualifying effort. However, I don’t think that is any reason to back away from Allgaier because he showed really good long run speed in practice and that is exactly why he has been so good at tracks like Phoenix throughout his career. Behind Allgaier, Jesse Love, Taylor Gray, and William Byron are all reasonable options to make a run at a win this afternoon. Unfortunately, there is not much value on any of those options and I do not have enough conviction in any single driver to justify their current odds.

Despite the fact I think we picked a good early match-up with Jesse Love over Sammy Smith, Smith is one of the most underrated drivers in terms of current betting odds. I thought Smith showed really good long-run speed in practice and his Phoenix resume is solid. At 16-1 odds, Smith is worth a look in all betting formats. I also believe that Carson Kvapil and Brent Crews may be sneaky H2H options. Both drivers had very good practice sessions and I think Crews is a really promising prospect. If you are looking for deep options for fantasy purposes, Chandler Smith and Parker Retzlaff are some options that should move forward from their current starting positions and produce solid fantasy value!

2026 GOVX 200 Draftkings Optimal Race Lineup

2026 GOVX 200 Betting Race Picks

”FINAL”

Justin Allgaier +400 (1 unit) *Early pick*
Justin Allgaier +700 (.5 unit)
Sammy Smith +1600 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Jesse Love -145 over Sammy Smith (2 units) *Early pick*
Carson Kvapil -130 over Chandler Smith (2 units)
Sammy Smith -110 over Sam Mayer (2 units)