2025 IAA and Ritchie Bros. 250 Race Picks

Date/Time: Saturday October 25th, 2025. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Martinsville Speedway
TV: CW

Earlier tonight, the Craftsman Truck Series decided the final four drivers that will have the opportunity to fight for a championship next week at Phoenix Raceway with the conclusion of the Slim Jim 200. Tomorrow night, the Xfinity Series will have the opportunity to decide their championship four with short track racing at Martinsville Speedway with the running of the IAA and Ritchie Bros. 250. As things currently stand, the Xfinity Series is the only touring series that has yet to have a driver lock themselves into the championship race in the Round of 8 which means all 4 championship positions will be decided under the lights at Martinsville!

Back in the spring race at Martinsville, Austin Hill won the U.S. Marine Corps 250 in dramatic fashion. Hill, who also won last week at Talladega, was essentially in the right position at the right time. Rookie Taylor Gray dominated the 2nd half of the race by leading 87 of 250 laps. However, a late race caution provided a pair of chaotic restarts and Sammy Smith wrecked Gray after a hard fought battle on the final lap. As a result, Hill captured the checkered flag despite just leading 1 lap in the entire race. I bring up that previous scenario purposely because late-race cautions at Martinsville have proven to be very hostile in several recent races at Martinsville and we cannot rule out that possibility again on Saturday.

Luckily, Martinsville Speedway is one of the rare venues on the schedule where we have a lot of historical data to rely on. All of the drivers competing on Saturday have an abundance of experience at Martinsville whether it comes from the Xfinity Series or the Craftsman Truck Series. For that reason, we should have a pretty solid idea of the drivers that should be in contention at the front of the field and perhaps those drivers that could underwhelm as well. We will use those expectations to identify discrepancies in betting odds and also find drivers that should have the ability to outperform their expectations. If we can avoid some of those chaotic scenarios that I mentioned above, we should be able to compile a confident betting card with a high possibility of producing profit!

Handicapping Strategy

As I mentioned in yesterday’s Truck Series preview, Martinsville Speedway requires a unique skill set to perform well. Obviously, not all short tracks are the same but Martinsville falls within the category of a flat short track which is similar to other venues like New Hampshire, North Wilkesboro, and others. For that reason, bettors should expand their handicapping to identify drivers that fit that unique skill set and are among those drivers that consistently perform well at this style of racing. We have enough historical data at Martinsville to establish a strong baseline and we should use other similar venues to validate our expectations going into the weekend. Afterwards, we will review practice/qualifying sessions on Saturday to confirm or deny any final thoughts before concluding our betting card!

Martinsville – Xfinity Notes

• Aric Almirola has the most wins (2) among active drivers at Martinsville.
• Harrison Burton (2020), Bradon Jones (2022), Justin Allgaier (2023), and Austin Hill (2025) are former winners at Martinsville.
• Aric Almirola has won 2 of the last 3 races at Martinsville.
• Sammy Smith has finished 3rd or better in 3 of the last 5 races at Martinsville.
• Sheldon Creed has finished 6th or better in 5 of the last 6 races at Martinsville which includes 3 runner-up finishes.
• Justin Allgaier has finished 6th or better in 6 straight races at Martinsville.
• Sam Mayer has finished 6th or better in 5 of 8 career starts at Martinsville.
• Daniel Dye finished 7th in his only career start at Martinsville earlier this year.
• Austin Hill (previous winner) has finished 14th or worse in 4 of the last 5 races at Martinsville.
• Brandon Jones has finished 16th or worse in 5 of the last 6 races at Martinsville.
• There have been at least 10 cautions in the last 11 races at Martinsville.
• The eventual race winner has started in the Top 10 in each of the last 6 races at Martinsville.
• Toyota drivers have won 5 of the last 7 races at Martinsville.

Betting Targets

Current betting odds are displaying both Connor Zilisch and Justin Allgaier as the outright heavy betting favorites. In my opinion, Zilisch has been overvalued for a few weeks due to his incredible stretch through the summer that included 7 wins in 8 races. With that being said, Zilisch simply has not shown enough dominance on smaller flat surfaces to warrant 2.5 to 1 betting odds. Even if Zilisch wins on Saturday, he does not justify those betting odds based on handicapping metrics and I will not have much exposure to the #88 car for that reason. On the other hand, Justin Allgaier has been incredibly strong at Martinsville throughout his entire career and may be the best Martinsville Speedway talent in the field along with Aric Almirola who has won 2 of the last 3 races.

Behind those names, Sammy Smith, Sheldon Creed, and Taylor Gray have excellent resumes at Martinsville to warrant betting consideration. All 3 of those drivers are also receiving enough betting value to establish a solid ROI to most betting cards. Smith and Creed have finished either 2nd or 3rd in each of the last 5 races at Martinsville. Both drivers are more than capable of getting it done on Saturday if they can just get a few things to go their way. Meanwhile, Taylor Gray may not have the tenured resume as some of the other drivers at Martinsville. However, Gray has been very strong at Martinsville in both the Truck Series and his lone start in the spring where he was in position to get the victory. Therefore, I believe all 3 of those drivers are worthy targets in all betting formats.

Note: If you are looking for even deeper flier options in fantasy or prop bet formats, Christian Eckes, Harrison Burton, and Daniel Dye are excellent selections who have much higher upside than current betting odds suggest.

2025 Draftkings IAA and Ritchie Bros. 250 Optimal Lineup

2025 IAA and Ritchie Bros. 250 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Sammy Smith +800 (1 unit)
Sheldon Creed +1600 (.75 unit)
Taylor Gray +1600 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Prop Bets

Sheldon Creed -115 over Austin Hill (3 units)
Taylor Gray +100 over Brandon Jones (3 units)
Sammy Smith -130 over Sam Mayer (2 units)

Two Team Parlays

Aric Almirola +400 wins IAA and Ritchie Bros. 250
Ryan Preece +300 finishes Top 10 in the Xfinity 500
Risking .5 unit to win: +950

Justin Allgaier +275 wins IAA and Ritchie Bros. 250
Ryan Blaney +500 wins Xfinity 500
Risking .5 unit to win: +1075