2025 Food City 300 Race Picks

Date/Time: Friday September 12th, 2025. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Bristol Motor Speedway
TV: CW

Later tonight, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will step into the spotlight at Bristol Motor Speedway for the running of the Food City 300. Unlike the Craftsman Truck Series and Cup Series who have already held multiple playoff races, tonight’s Food City 300 will be the opening playoff race for the Xfinity Series. As things currently stand, Connor Zilisch has a commanding lead in playoff points and rightfully so considering Zilisch is in the midst of one of the most impressive streaks in Xfinity Series history with 7 wins in the last 8 races. As a result, Zilisch enters the playoffs as the heavy favorite to win the championship and will be going for a record 5th straight victory later tonight!

While Zilisch has turned into one of the most dominant drivers in Xfinity Series history, tonight’s Food City 300 will be a difficult challenge for all Xfinity Series drivers. Bristol Motor Speedway is known as the “World’s Fastest Half-Mile” and it requires a bit of everything from the driver and the racecar. Additionally, tire wear is expected to be a bigger factor this evening which will be another element that drivers have to contend with as they attempt to manage tires on the longer runs. How successful drivers are towards managing those tires will also directly play into the strategy on pit road and the fight for track position. Needless to say, this is one of those races where you need more things to go right than simply driving a good race.

From a handicapping perspective, I believe Bristol is one of those venues that favors bettors especially in H2H formats if you can just avoid bad luck which we were unable to do during Friday’s UNOH 200 in the Truck Series. Despite that fact, Bristol is one of those tracks that favors the drivers with the short track and strong car control skill sets which will shine on the longer runs. As a result, we can often take advantage of bias odds that are inflated due to recent performances and/or practice/qualifying results. For that reason, we will be pretty aggressive with H2H match-ups as long as odds makers provide enough options to identify sharp value!

Xfinity Notes – Bristol

• Justin Allgaier is the only active driver that is a former winner at Bristol. Allgaier has two wins at Bristol coming in 2010 and 2023.
• While Kyle Larson won the spring race earlier this year at Bristol, Carson Kvapil, Justin Allgaier, Sammy Smith, Brandon Jones, and Jesse Love all produced an average driver rating of 100 or greater.
• Allgaier has produced a minimum 114.8 average driver rating in 11 of the last 12 races at Bristol which is simply remarkable.
• Carson Kvapil finished 2nd at Bristol in his first career start earlier this year.
• Jesse Love has finished 6th or better in two career starts at Bristol.
• Brandon Jones has finished 8th or better in 6 of the last 7 races at Bristol.
• Ryan Sieg has finished in the Top 10 in his last 4 starts at Bristol.
• Sheldon Creed has finished 11th or worse in 3 of the last 4 races at Bristol.
• Austin Hill has finished 14th or worse in his last 3 starts at Bristol.
• Drivers currently on a Cup Series roster have won 21 of the last 22 races at Bristol.
• Chevrolet drivers have won 7 of the last 10 races at Bristol.
• There have been 7 cautions or more in 6 of the last 8 races at Bristol.
• The eventual race winner has started in the Top 10 in 19 of the last 20 races at Bristol.

Betting Targets

The fact that current Cup Series drivers have won 21 of the last 22 races at Bristol, despite the fact they may have not been full-time Cup Series drivers at the time, is an undeniable argument that the best outright talents will emerge at the front of the field at Bristol Motor Speedway. For that reason, Zilisch remains a strong favorite to earn a record-breaking 5th straight victory. With that being said, I believe JRM teammate Justin Allgaier is likely to be Zilisch’s biggest threat tonight. Allgaier has been downright incredible at Bristol. The downside to Allgaier’s performance metrics is that he only has two career wins at Bristol with his first victory coming all the way back in 2010. Needless to say, Allgaier has consistently performed much better than his final result indicates.

Obviously, bettors are not going to find much betting value on either Zilisch or Allgaier unless they explore parlay opportunities. With that being said, I also don’t want to dismiss the fact that dark horses are very live tonight especially if they can capture track position in the closing laps. Bristol is one of those tracks where if you can capture track position at the right time then drivers can steal a victory without needing the best car. Personally, Brandon Jones and Jesse Love are drivers that I believe have shown the performance metrics to qualify as strong dark horses. I am just hesitant to pull the trigger on either driver because their odds could get better if they don’t have a really strong qualifying effort. However, I do believe that Carson Kvapil and Sammy Smith are additional dark horses that are hitting on a lot of handicapping indicators and are among the drivers I will be watching closely during today’s practice and qualifying sessions.

Speaking of practice and qualifying, I am going to be relatively conservative with our early betting picks because betting odds are currently very conservative. While I could make the argument for several drivers to contend tonight, I would like to see some speed off the hauler before I pull the trigger. With that being said, I am going to lock-in a parlay with Justin Allgaier. I believe Allgaier’s odds will not change much or perhaps even get worse due to the fact he qualifies really well at Bristol. Meanwhile, I am going to pull the trigger on Jesse Love in H2H formats. I really like Love’s potential tonight but am holding off in future formats because he does not always qualify that well. Lastly for streamer options, Nick Sanchez and Anthony Alfredo are deep dark horses that have much higher ceilings than current betting odds suggest. Both drivers are potential fantasy targets and can be considered in Top 10 style prop bets.

2025 Draftkings Food City 300 Optimal Lineup

2025 Food City 300 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Aric Almirola +500 (1 unit)
Carson Kvapil +2000 (.5 unit)
Sammy Smith +2000 (.5 unit)
Brandon Jones +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Prop Bets

Jesse Love -130 over Sam Mayer (2 units)
Taylor Gray -110 over Sheldon Creed (2 units)
Nick Sanchez +300 wins Group C (Eckes, Sawalich, Day)(1 unit) *Caesars*

Two Team Parlay

Justin Allgaier +225 wins Food City 300
Toyota +160 wins Bristol Night Race
Risking 1 unit to win: +750