2025 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Race Picks

Date/Time: Saturday August 23rd, 2025. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Daytona International Speedway
TV: NBC

NASCAR’s regular season will conclude on the high-banks of Daytona International Speedway late Saturday night with the running of the Coke Zero Sugar 400. Last week, Austin Dillon delivered a revenge style victory at Richmond Raceway one year removed from a controversial win at Richmond which was overshadowed by rough driving and the fact NASCAR stripped Dillon’s playoff eligibility. However, Dillon’s victory last week was without controversy and vaulted the #3 team from 28th position in the Cup Series standings to securely in the playoffs as the 14th different winner on the season. Needless to say, two positions remain up for grabs going into Saturday’s wild card at the World Center of Racing!

With Dillon earning an unexpected playoff berth last week at Richmond, Tyler Reddick and Alex Bowman are currently the drivers that sit inside the cutoff line. Reddick won the regular season points battle in 2024 and finds himself in a vicarious position where he must avoid a disastrous result to keep his playoff hopes alive. With that being said, Reddick is most likely going to advance barring an avalanche of unthinkable events. For Alex Bowman, the situation is not nearly as pretty. Though Bowman holds a pretty significant points lead over Chris Buescher and Ryan Preece, the driver of the #48 could be knocked out of the playoff picture if there is another first-time winner Saturday night among the drivers that are currently outside of the cutoff line.

While the playoff battle will keep things interesting throughout the late hours on Saturday, our betting focus has minimal correlation to the playoff battle. In fact, it makes no difference how the playoff battle unfolds on Saturday. The only thing that we care about is that the car in victory lane is also on our betting card. For that reason, our focus will shift towards trying to find the drivers that have the highest likelihood to contend for a victory on Saturday. After all, these superspeedway races are volatile and unpredictable by nature. However, that volatility typically yields advantageous betting odds that can yield the possibility for a big payout. Our goal going into Saturday night is to not only identify the drivers that should be at the front of the field but also identify those drivers that produce the best ROI in hopes that we can cash a sizable winning ticket!

Daytona – Superspeedway Notes

• Denny Hamlin and William Byron are tied for the most wins (3) among active drivers at Daytona.
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr and Austin Dillon are the only other drivers with multiple (2) wins at Daytona.
• Austin Cindric, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Chris Buescher, Ryan Blaney, Justin Haley, Erik Jones, Michael McDowell, and Brad Keselowski are also former winners at Daytona.
• William Byron has won 2 of the last 3 races at Daytona.
• John Hunter Nemechek has the best average finishing position (9.5) among active drivers with multiple starts at Daytona.
• Bubba Wallace has the highest Top 5 percentage (5 for 16 (31%)) at Daytona among active drivers.
• Christopher Bell has finished 3rd in 3 of the last 5 races at Daytona.
• Alex Bowman has finished 6th or better in 4 of the last 5 races at Daytona.
• Chris Buescher has finished in the Top 10 in 4 of the last 5 races at Daytona.
• Joey Logano (96.0), Austin Cindric (90.6), and Chris Buescher (89.4) have the highest average driver ratings in the Next Gen Car at Daytona.
• Joey Logano has led the most laps (158) at Daytona in the Next Gen Car.
• Austin Cindric has the best average driver rating (87.8) in the Next Gen Car on the superspeedways.
• William Byron has the most Top 5 finishes (5) and Top 10 finishes (8) among active drivers in the Next Gen Car on the superspeedways.
• Chevrolet drivers have won 4 of the last 6 races at Daytona.
• There have been at least 7 cautions in 7 of the last 9 races at Daytona.
• The eventual race winner has started outside the Top 10 in 5 of the last 6 races at Daytona

Dynamic Averages – Superspeedways

As everyone is aware by now, one of my favorite handicapping metrics at the superspeedways is our dynamic averages. Our superspeedway dynamic averages is essentially a collection of performance metrics from the last 5 superspeedway races. While superspeedways do not always produce the best consistency in terms of finishes, these metrics help identify the drivers that are consistently running towards the front of the field regardless of what their final result may have been. As handicappers and bettors, the biggest thing we can hope for is to identify drivers that can put themselves into position for a victory late Saturday and that is what we are hoping for by leveraging our dynamic averages.

Without going through the entire list of drivers, I will point out the fact that Austin Cindric and Joey Logano continue to dominate these metrics. Both drivers have been the best at superspeedways in the Next Gen Car and continue to produce the highest average driver ratings in the series. Behind Cindric and Logano, I would point out the fact that Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, and Alex Bowman have produced similar metrics in terms of average running positions which is often an overlooked metric. Bowman has produced a stretch of strong finishes at Daytona and that is not a fluke based on his average running position. Additionally, I would also point to the likes of Kyle Busch and Todd Gilliland are among the drivers that have run much better than their results may reflect as well.

Betting Targets

In case anyone was wondering, the starting lineup Saturday night is being slated by the rule book due to the fact qualifying was cancelled on Friday. As a result, Ryan Blaney will lead the field to the green for the start of the Coke Zero Sugar 400. Blaney is among 3 Team Penske drivers that are also listed as the outright betting favorites going into race day. All of the Team Penske drivers have been extremely strong on the superspeedways and have consistently been in contention for victories late in these races. For that reason, I agree with odds makers’ assessment towards the betting favorites. I believe legitimate arguments can be made to back any of those drivers but I will put Cindric at the top of the list due to the fact that he is getting a slightly better number than the duo of Blaney/Logano.

Behind the Team Penske cars, we start getting better value for the majority of the field. William Byron has won 2 of the last 3 races at Daytona and is getting north of 15-1 betting odds. Alex Bowman, Bubba Wallace, Denny Hamlin, and Christopher Bell are begging for betting attention based on their performance trends at the superspeedways combined with the fact all of those drivers are getting value at 20-1 odds. Bowman seems like the biggest sleeper in that group but has produced the best metrics which elevates my thoughts towards backing the #48. For even deeper options, we could make the arguments for nearly anyone. However, I believe Tyler Reddick (30-1), John Hunter Nemechek (50-1), and Austin Hill (100-1) are drivers that have much higher ceilings than current betting odds suggest. Reddick and Nemechek are legitimate dark horses while Hill may be a better dart throw in prop bet (top 10) formats.

2025 Draftkings Coke Zero Sugar 400 Optimal Lineup

2025 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Austin Cindric +1200 (.75 unit)
Chase Elliott +1600 (.75 unit)
Alex Bowman +1800 (.75 unit)
Christopher Bell +2200 (.5 unit)
Tyler Reddick +3000 (.5 unit)
John Hunter Nemechek +5000 (.5 unit)

Prop Bets

Drivers to finish on the lead lap over 20.5 (-110)(2 units) *Caesars*
John Hunter Nemechek +1000 finishes Top Toyota (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +850 finishes Top Toyota (.5 unit)