2025 Brickyard 400 Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday July 27th, 2025. 2:00PM (EST)
Where: Indianapolis Motor Speedway
TV: TNT

On Sunday, NASCAR’s Cup Series returns to one of the most iconic venues in motorsports at Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the running of the prestigious Brickyard 400. The Brickyard 400 has been one of NASCAR’s crown jewels since its inaugural race in 1994 which was won by Jeff Gordon. Since that race, NASCAR’s biggest icons have etched their names into the PPG Trophy which is housed in the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Museum. Tomorrow, another driver will have the opportunity to add their name to NASCAR history and kiss the bricks when the green flag waves at the Racing Capital of the World.

Earlier today, Chase Briscoe earned his 5th pole of the season with a fast lap of 183.165mph. Briscoe leads all drivers this season with pole awards. Earlier this year, Briscoe was failing to back up the strong qualifying efforts. However, the driver of the #19 has rallied to rack off a victory and two runner-up finishes over the last 5 races. Needless to say, Briscoe has a lot more momentum going into Sunday’s return to Indy and honestly we should probably point out the fact that the Toyotas have a lot of momentum going into Sunday as well. Toyota drivers have won at the last 3 traditional ovals and Toyota drivers dominated qualifying by securing the top 5 starting positions for Sunday’s Brickyard 400. Needless to say, the Toyotas are trending in a positive direction going into race day!

Despite everything that we witnessed on-track on Saturday with the strength of the Toyotas, the Brickyard 400 is a relatively long race. More importantly, Indianapolis Motor Speedway is a very large venue that produces a lot of variables. The very fast speeds and large layout puts a premium on track position. Therefore, teams and drivers will be scrambling for ways to optimize track position on Sunday. Rest assured we will likely see some various calls on pit road as teams take chances to position themselves for a shot to win one of the biggest races of the season. As a result, perhaps we can expect some of the unexpected ahead of this prestigious event!

Handicapping Indianapolis

Admittedly, I have been extremely frustrated with our betting outcome in recent weeks. I feel like we keep making strong picks and keep finding the absolutely most disgusting ways to lose just like we did in Saturday’s Pennzoil 250. With that being stated, I also understand that strings of luck, whether good or bad, are temporary in the long run. As long as we keep making good predictions, we will survive the long haul. For racing at Indianapolis, this track requires a lot of speed from the setup/chassis of the car and a lot of raw talent behind the wheel.

Drivers must be very technical in their approach to the corners at Indianapolis and absolutely must maximize speed on corner exit. In many ways, Indianapolis has a lot of similarities compared to tracks like Michigan and Pocono. For those reasons, we will observe how prior races at Michigan and Pocono unfolded. We will also observe historical trends at Indianapolis and also consider current momentum towards the drivers/teams that appear to be trending in the right direction in the speed department. Once we consider all of those denominators, we can then start formulating where sharp value lies within current betting odds.

Indianapolis – Cup Notes

• There has only been 1 race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in the Next Gen Car. The Cup Series competed on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course from 2021-2023.
• Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with two career wins at Indianapolis.
• Brad Keselowski and Kyle Larson are the only other former winners at Indianapolis.
• Tyler Reddick has the best average finishing position (5.0) among active drivers despite just two career starts at Indianapolis.
• Cole Custer finished 5th in his only career start at Indianapolis in 2020.
• Todd Gilliland finished 6th in his only career start at Indianapolis last season.
• Joey Logano has finished in the Top 10 in 7 of the last 9 races at Indianapolis.
• Denny Hamlin has finished 6th or better in 5 of the last 8 races at Indianapolis.
• Brad Keselowski has finished 4th or better in 3 of the last 5 races at Indianapolis.
• Bubba Wallace has finished 9th or better in the last 3 races at Indianapolis.
• Carson Hocevar finished 12th in his only start at Indianapolis last season.
• Chase Elliott has just one finish inside the Top 10 in 7 career starts at Indianapolis.
• Ross Chastain’s best finish at Indianapolis is 15th in 4 career starts.
• Toyota drivers won at both Michigan and Pocono earlier this year
• Denny Hamlin and Chris Buescher are the only drivers to finish in the Top 5 at both Michigan and Pocono.
• Ford drivers have won 3 of the last 4 races at Indianapolis.
• There have been at least 9 cautions in 5 straight races at Indianapolis.

Practice Observations

Before the Toyota drivers stole the spotlight in qualifying, Toyota drivers also took 3 of the top 4 fastest times in practice early on Saturday led by Denny Hamlin who posted the fastest lap of the session at 182.039mph. Beyond single lap times, there were some surprise names towards the top of the speed charts in Saturday’s practice led by John Hunter Nemechek who posted the best 5, 10, and 15 lap consecutive averages. While Nemechek dominated nearly every metric, I would point to the likes of Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick as the notable names that appeared to be really solid in lap times. Hamlin’s times stood out quite a bit because he showed the least amount of fall off in lap times compared to the entire field with another notable mention to Chase Briscoe as another driver that displayed minimal fall off in speed.

Meanwhile, I would also give mentions to less popular names like Brad Keselowski and Michael McDowell who both appeared to be trending much better than many expected. Deeper into the field, Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman, and Kyle Busch were among notable names that appeared to be struggling in the speed department. With those things considered, I would still point out that these practice observations are just a microcosm of minimal on-track time on Saturday. Most teams/drivers only elected to run a handful of laps which means there is strong bias to anomalies in an analytical sense. We should never based our handicapping selections solely off practice speeds especially when there are so very few laps to observe!

Betting Targets

Taking into account all of our handicapping angles described above combined with our evaluation of current betting odds, Denny Hamlin stands out as the best value play among the favorites. Hamlin has been fast at all of the similar handicapping tracks and is likely getting extra value due to the fact that he wrecked during qualifying. As a result, I think Hamlin produces a lot of sharp value if he can simply overcome the bad track position early. William Byron, Kyle Larson, and Chase Briscoe are all worthy of betting consideration and definitely capable of winning. However, I believe all of those drivers are overvalued based on our handicapping metrics.

Behind the group of heavy favorites, Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell are both formidable considerations. Both drivers have performed very well in their limited experience at Indianapolis and are part of the Toyota power that has shown terrific speed thus far this weekend. Personally, I like Bell more so than Reddick simply based on the differences of speed from both teams over the course of the entire season. While my confidence for dark horses is not high, Chris Buescher is hitting on nearly all handicapping metrics and should yield sharp value in H2H formats. Meanwhile, Ross Chastain and John Hunter Nemechek are a pair of drivers that are getting really big numbers. Both drivers have much higher ceilings than current betting odds suggests and may be worth consideration in low risk/high reward prop bet formats.

2025 Draftkings Brickyard 400 Optimal Lineup

2025 Brickyard 400 Race Picks

*More plays may be added closer to race time. Check back until “FINAL” status is displayed*

Denny Hamlin +900 (1 unit)
Christopher Bell +1200 (.75 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1200 (.75 unit)
Chris Buescher +1800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Christopher Bell -140 over Chase Elliott (3 units)
Chris Buescher -115 over Ty Gibbs (2 units)
Denny Hamlin -130 over Chase Briscoe (2 units)
Tyler Reddick +265 wins Group 2 (Briscoe, Wallace, Keselowski)(1 unit) (DraftKings) Ross Chastain +500 wins Group J (Wallace, Hocevar, Busch)(.5 unit) (Bovada)

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Larson +400 wins Brickyard 400
Ross Chastain +330 finishes Top 10
Risking .5 unit to win: +1025