2025 FireKeepers Casino 400 Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday June 8th, 2025. 2:00PM (EST)
Where: Michigan International Speedway
TV: Prime

Last week, Ryan Blaney became the 9th different winner in the Cup Series this season with his victory at Nashville. Blaney’s win also locked all of the Team Penske cars into the playoffs thanks to the previous wins by Austin Cindric (Talladega) and Joey Logano (Texas) last month. As a result, Team Penske will have their full arsenal of drivers that will be eligible to potentially capture a 4th consecutive championship later this year when the playoffs begin. On Sunday, various Cup Series competitors will be looking to lock themselves into the playoffs or potentially strengthen their points situation when the green flag waves for the FireKeepers Casino 400 in what promises to be an exciting race at the extremely fast two-mile layout known as Michigan International Speedway.

Earlier today, Chase Briscoe continued his stellar qualifying performance by winning his 3rd consecutive pole. Briscoe posted a blazing fast lap of 195.514mph to edge out a stacked starting lineup that features Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, and Kyle Larson in the top 5 positions. For Briscoe specifically, the #19 has been flawless recently in qualifying but that has yet to correlate into quality finishes. Ironically, Briscoe has failed to finish his last two starts at Michigan and has never cracked the top 10 in 4 career starts. With that being said, the #19 team has shown speed in recent weeks and will get the opportunity once again to lead the field to the green flag.

Historically, Michigan International Speedway has been a relatively difficult track to handicap. The two-mile speedway has a little bit of everything that includes drafting, track position, pit strategy, and everything in between. As a result, it is typically difficult to predict who will optimize pit road strategy and win the track position game to put themselves in position for a victory. With that being said, there are some drivers that routinely find themselves at the front of the field at Michigan and that does play into the hands of handicappers. Therefore, we will try to identify the best drivers that are poised to run well on Sunday and also keep some dark horses on the table in-case we see another first-time winner yet again!

Handicapping and Betting Strategy

From a handicapping perspective, I believe it is important that we look at historical trends at Michigan International Speedway to establish the list of drivers that have performed well, especially in the Next Gen Car. Unfortunately, there are few tracks in the Cup Series that closely compare to Michigan but we may also extend our performance observations to tracks like Kansas and Homestead. Both of those tracks have some similarities and have already hosted races this season in Cup Series competition. From there, we will also give some slight observations to practice speeds in order to get our full handicapping baseline. Afterwards, I believe our betting strategy should be focused around betting “value” due to the importance of track position and undeniable chaos that will unfold on Sunday. Therefore our betting strategy will ensure we are focused on betting value and ROI for our final betting card!

Cup Series – Michigan Notes

• Kyle Larson and Joey Logano are tied for the most wins (3) among active drivers at Michigan.
• Denny Hamlin (2), Kyle Busch, Chris Buescher, Ryan Blaney, and Tyler Reddick are all former winners at Michigan.
• Denny Hamlin (103.7) is the only driver with a +100 average driver rating through 3 races at Michigan in the Next Gen Car.
• Denny Hamlin has finished in the top 5 in 4 of the last 5 races at Michigan.
• Kyle Busch has finished 7th or better in 8 of the last 10 races at Michigan.
• Brad Keselowski has finished top 5 in the last two starts at Michigan.
• Ty Gibbs has finished 11th or better in all 3 career starts at Michigan.
• Daniel Suarez has finished 6th and 8th in the last two races at Michigan.
• Christopher Bell’s best finish is 13th (3 times) in 6 career starts at Michigan.
• Ross Chastain has finished 24th or worse in 6 of 7 career starts at Michigan.
• Ford drivers have won 9 of the last 10 races at Michigan.
• The eventual race winner has started from the top 4 positions in 7 of the last 9 races at Michigan.
• There have been an average of 22 lead changes in the 3 races at Michigan in the Next Gen Car.

Practice Observations

Before Chase Briscoe put the #19 car on the pole for the 3rd consecutive week, Briscoe also posted the fastest lap in practice early Saturday with a speed of 195.492mph. Briscoe edged out teammate Christopher Bell for the fastest lap of the session. Of course, I would not pay much attention to single lap speeds that could be biased by drafting factors. In terms of race speed, Ty Gibbs was the driver that emerged from Saturday’s practice as the surprise story. As everyone is aware, Gibbs has experienced an awful 2025 campaign. However, Gibbs posted the best 10, 15, 20, and 25 lap consecutive averages. If you combine Gibbs’ solid history at Michigan combined with the speed shown in practice, perhaps Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 could be the breakout race the #54 team desperately needs.

Behind Gibbs, I would point out the fact that most of the Toyota teams looked pretty strong. Tyler Reddick (last year’s winner), Denny Hamlin (two-time Michigan winner), Christopher Bell, and Chase Briscoe were all among some of the fastest cars on the stopwatch. Behind the Toyota brigade, Chris Buescher, Austin Cindric, William Byron, and Alex Bowman were among the additional names that appeared to be within striking distance in terms of pure speed. On the other side of the spectrum, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, Josh Berry, and Kyle Busch were among the drivers that were further down the speed charts than most would expect. However, I would make note that Logano and Blaney have not exactly excelled in practice in recent weeks and have been much better once the green flag waves!

Betting Targets

Based on current betting odds, I am growing pessimistic about our betting opportunities on Sunday. There are so many drivers that are extremely overvalued and have saturated the market. Ty Gibbs, Chris Buescher, Chase Briscoe, and Kyle Busch are all within the 15-1 odds range or less which is absolutely absurd considering most of those drivers have been struggling to finish inside the top 20. Due to the fact so many drivers are overvalued, I am going to approach Sunday’s race surprisingly in a conservative format. With that being said, I do like Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson as the top options going into Sunday. Both drivers have excellent resumes at Michigan and are hitting all the right handicapping angles.

Behind Hamlin and Larson, I believe betting odds are pretty accurate with William Byron, Tyler Reddick, and Ryan Blaney in close proximity. All of those drivers are threats going into Sunday however I just don’t like the betting odds on any of those options. Instead if I am going to search for serious value, I would go deeper into the field for the likes of Kyle Busch, Bubba Wallace, and Alex Bowman. I know I listed Busch in the realm of drivers that were overvalued and I still believe that is true. However, Rowdy’s insane track resume at Michigan keeps him in play at his current 20-1 betting odds range. Meanwhile, Wallace and Bowman are clicking on various handicapping indicators and have enough value to warrant potential selections in low-risk/high-yield formats.

For potential lottery style long-shots, consider the likes of Erik Jones, Ryan Preece, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr among the drivers that appear poised to shatter their current betting odds. While the likelihood of those drivers winning may be marginalized, I do believe that all of those drivers have legitimate top 5 upside and may be worth considering realistically in top 10 prop bets.

Draftkings 2025 FireKeepers Casino 400 Optimal Fantasy Lineup

2025 FireKeepers Casino 400 Betting Picks

*More plays may be added closer to race time. Check back until “FINAL” status is displayed*

Kyle Larson +550 (1 unit)
Kyle Busch +2000 (.5 unit)
Carson Hocevar +2500 (.5 unit)
Bubba Wallace +2800 (.5 unit) (early pick)
Alex Bowman +3300 (.25 unit)
Austin Cindric +4000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Chase Briscoe -130 over Josh Berry (2 units)
Carson Hocevar +105 over Chris Buescher (2 units)
Denny Hamlin -115 over William Byron (2 units)
Erik Jones +400 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +500 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit) (early pick)

Two Team Parlay

Denny Hamlin +600 wins FireKeepers Casino 400
Ryan Preece +250 finishes Top 10
Risking .5 unit to win: +1175 (early pick)