2025 DQS Solutions & Staffing 200 Race Picks

Date/Time: Saturday June 7th, 2025. 12:00PM (EST)
Where: Michigan International Speedway
TV: FS1

The Craftsman Truck Series will conclude a six week consecutive stretch of races on Saturday with the running of the DQS Solutions & Staffing 200 at Michigan International Speedway. Last week, Rajah Caruth scored the biggest upset win of the season in the Truck Series, cashing at 30-1 odds. Caruth became just the 5th different winner this season among the Truck Series full-time competitors. As a result, five drivers have already locked themselves into the Truck Series playoffs and just five additional spots remain over the next six races before the playoffs begin!

For Saturday’s DQS Solutions & Staffing 200, there will be another healthy mix of Cup Series names that will be returning to action including Carson Hocevar and Ross Chastain. Additionally former long-time Cup Series veteran Corey Lajoie will also make a rare start in the #07 with Spire Motorsports. Obviously, Hocevar and Chastain are the biggest threats to the Truck Series competitors in terms of a victory. Hocevar won earlier this year at Kansas which is likely the most similar track to Michigan in terms of driving style. Meanwhile, Chastain always seems to find the front of the field in these Truck Series events and is coming off a runner-up finish at Charlotte just two weeks ago.

Perhaps the biggest noteworthy fact going into Saturday’s return to Michigan is that this will be the first Truck Series race at Michigan since the 2020 season. In fact, the majority of Truck Series’ drivers competing on Saturday have never raced at Michigan in Truck Series competition. I believe that could create some tense moments once the green flag waves on Saturday. As everyone is aware, Michigan International Speedway is an extremely fast 2.0 mile race track. What some folks may not know is that the trucks are really on edge at Michigan because they are carrying so much speed on a somewhat flatter surface than your typical big speedways. Therefore, we should expect a lot of hairy situations as drivers navigate this very fast and competitive layout.

Handicapping Strategy

Since we do not have any historical data to rely on Michigan since it has been several years since the Truck Series competed at MIS, we will have to think outside the box in terms of handicapping angles. We know that drivers are going to have to navigate loose driving conditions on a very fast yet aero sensitive layout. In my opinion, Kansas Speedway is the closest comparison to driving conditions at Michigan and perhaps we can use the performance results from Kansas as a handicapping comparable venue.

The good news is that the Truck Series already participated in practice on Friday which will give us some extra observable insights to consider. The Truck Series usually practices on the same day as the race but was given a full 50 minute session on Friday due to the fact that most drivers have limited experience at Michigan. As a result, we will put some stock into those practice observations combined with handicapping angles like momentum, driving styles, and results from other comparable venues. I believe those components will establish our best handicapping insight and hopefully we can come away with another winner!

Practice Observations

In Friday’s practice, Tanner Gray posted the fastest lap of the session with a speed of 185.922mph. Gray and Luke Fenhaus were the only drivers to post lap times in the sub 39 second bracket. However, there were a lot of big names in close proximity in the low 39 second bracket which includes names like Ross Chastain, Chandler Smith, Tyler Ankrum, Carson Hocevar, Layne Riggs, Ty Majeski, Corey Heim, Kaden Honeycutt, Grant Enfinger, and Rajah Caruth. All of those drivers were within .11 seconds in terms of fast lap times which seems to indicate we are going to have a lot of action at the front of the field.

Beyond single lap speeds, Rajah Caruth, Corey Heim, and Layne Riggs all had really solid consecutive lap averages. It’s worth noting that most drivers only ran about 7-13 consecutive laps which means we only have the 5 and 10 consecutive lap categories to consider. I will be really interested to see if we see trucks/drivers fall off later into green flag runs on Saturday and if tire wear comes into play at all. With those thoughts considered, it appears to be trending towards Heim and Riggs as the drivers to beat. Chastain, Hocevar, Smith, and Honeycutt appeared to be the drivers that were within striking distance in terms of speed.

Betting Targets

In terms of betting targets, Corey Heim remains the top threat to win on a weekly basis. More importantly, TRICON Garage continues to show excellent speed which is the primary recipe for success at Michigan. While Heim is an elite talent, Michigan rarely offers the potential to run away with a victory because drafting is an important part of the equation. For that reason, I am going to limit my exposure to Heim as simply the first leg of a conservative parlay with Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400. Behind Heim, I was leaning towards Carson Hocevar being the next biggest threat due to Hocevar’s win at Kansas combined with his momentum across all series as a driver.

However, I am starting to believe that Layne Riggs may be the best value on the board at +800. Riggs drove Hocevar down and had a chance to pass him on the final lap at Kansas but failed to get the job done. More importantly, Riggs has been fast everywhere in recent weeks and appears to have the long-run pace that could make the difference if we see long green flag runs. Simply based on the betting odds around the favorites, Riggs makes the most sense in terms of betting value. However, I fully expect Hocevar and Chastain to find their way to the front.

Personally, I thought we did a great job of capturing value with our early betting selections surrounding Chandler Smith and Kaden Honeycutt. Both drivers were fast in practice and have lost significant value since those selections were posted. If you did not get the early value on those guys, I would lean towards Smith being the better betting option at the moment. However, I am very glad we get both drivers already locked-in with solid value. For H2H betting targets, Rajah Caruth and Tanner Gray are among the names that I believe have solid match-up potential. Caruth is riding a wave of momentum following the victory at Nashville and had really good speed in practice. Meanwhile, Gray and Connor Mosack are drivers that may have fantasy or prop bet appeal with higher ceilings than current betting odds suggests.

2025 DQS Solutions & Staffing 200 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Layne Riggs +800 (1 unit)
Chandler Smith +1800 (.5 unit) (early pick)
Kaden Honeycutt +2200 (.5 unit) (early pick)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Carson Hocevar -115 over Ross Chastain (2 units) (early pick)
Connor Mosack -110 over Stewart Friesen (2 units)

Two Team Parlay

Corey Heim +140 wins DQS Solutions & Staffing 200
Toyota +170 wins FireKeepers Casino 400
Risking 1 unit to win: +550