2025 Cracker Barrel 400 Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday June 1st, 2025. 7:00PM (EST)
Where: Nashville Speedway
TV: Prime

Last week, Ross Chastain became the 8th different winner in the Cup Series this season following a hard fought victory over William Byron in the final stages of the Coca Cola 600. More importantly, we were fortunate enough to cash on Chastain’s victory at 30-1 odds. Throughout the season, it appears that the intermediate sized tracks have produced the best chances for upset winners with Josh Berry’s win at Las Vegas, Joey Logano’s win at Texas, and Chastain’s win at Charlotte which were all the biggest upsets of the season. On Sunday, perhaps another upset opportunity awaits when the Cup Series waves the green flag for the running of the Cracker Barrel 400 at Nashville Speedway.

Unlike other intermediate sized cookie-cutter race tracks, Nashville Speedway is unique in the fact that it is just 1.33 miles and fully concrete. In fact, Nashville Speedway is the biggest fully concrete track in the Cup Series. The only other fully concrete tracks are Bristol and Dover. To most casual fans, the difference between the track surface from traditional asphalt to concrete may not seem like a big deal. However for anyone that is trying to handicap races with the sharpest angles, the concrete surface is one of our main focuses this weekend. Simply put, there is an entirely different “feel” to racing on concrete and there are definitely trends to support that some drivers perform better and some drivers perform worse consistently on these unique surfaces.

For that reason, we will need to ensure our handicapping angles consider drivers performance trends on the concrete. From a handicapping perspective, we will obviously look at prior track performance at Nashville. However, there have only been 4 Cup Series races in Cup Series history at Nashville. The Cup Series first began visiting Nashville Speedway in 2021 which means we do not have a ton of data in the realm of track history. As a result, we will need to extend our handicapping angles to examine performance trends at other similar tracks and also those performance trends that I previously mentioned related to the concrete surfaces. Once we examine all of those varying handicapping angles, then we should have a solid foundation for handicapping the Cracker Barrel 400!

Nashville – Cup Notes

• Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Ross Chastain, and Joey Logano are the only former winners at Nashville.
• Ross Chastain and Kyle Larson have finished in the top 5 at Nashville in 3 of 4 career starts.
• Denny Hamlin has the highest average driver rating (122.1) among drivers in the Next Gen Car at Nashville.
• Behind Hamlin, Ross Chastain (110.1), Chase Elliott (104.2), Kyle Larson (102.0), and Christopher Bell (101.4) are the only drivers with 100+ average driver ratings in the Next Gen Car at Nashville.
• Denny Hamlin (112.8) and Ross Chastain (109.9) also have the two highest average driver ratings at Dover in the Next Gen Car. *Dover is the most comparable concrete surface*
• Christopher Bell has finished in the top 10 in 3 of 4 career starts at Nashville.
• Zane Smith posted a career-best runner-up finish at Nashville last year.
• Alex Bowman’s best finish in 4 career starts at Nashville is just 14th.
• Chase Briscoe’s best finish in 4 career starts at Nashville is just 21st.
• William Byron (79.6) and Alex Bowman (58.3) have notably poor average driver ratings in the Next Gen Car at Nashville.
• Chevrolet drivers have won 3 of the 4 races at Nashville.
• There have been at least 10 cautions in 3 of 4 races at Nashville.
• The eventual race winner has started from the top 5 starting positions in 3 of 4 races at Nashville.

Dynamic Averages

While Nashville Speedway is not exactly a 1.5 mile speedway, I do believe handicappers and bettors can observe our dynamic averages which breaks down performance trends over the last 5 races at intermediate sized speedways. While these dynamic averages are specific to 1.5 mile speedways and asphalt surfaces, it still gives us an idea of how drivers/teams have performed on the intermediate layouts and we should at least consider these performance trends in the grand scheme of our handicapping equation. While I will not go over the dynamic results in this preview, I will point out the fact that both Ryan Preece and Carson Hocevar have risen substantially in recent weeks in both dynamic averages surrounding intermediate tracks and the last 5 races.

Practice Observations

On Saturday, Chase Briscoe earned his 3rd pole of the season with a fast lap of 164.395mph. As a result, Briscoe will have the opportunity to lead the field to green for the Cracker Barrel 400 ahead of Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, and Ross Chastain who all qualified in the top 5 positions. Before I jump into practice observations, let me also point out the fact that 3 of the 4 winners at Nashville have all come from the top 5 starting positions which is the reason I listed those names above. With that being said, I obviously know that qualifying results are very low on the handicapping totem pole.

In terms of practice observations that are more indicative of race speed, Tyler Reddick was perhaps the name that stood out in practice on Saturday. Reddick posted the fastest lap of the session and also had the best consecutive 5 and 10 lap averages. Behind Reddick, both Ross Chastain and Denny Hamlin were also among those drivers that were leading metrics in the consecutive lap average categories. In my personal opinion, there was a noticeable dropoff from those 3 drivers back to guys like William Byron, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, and others who appeared to be among the noteworthy drivers that showed strong speed on Saturday. Meanwhile, I would also call attention to the likes of Kyle Larson, Alex Bowman, Joey Logano, and Kyle Busch who were among the names that appeared to be struggling in the speed department on Saturday.

Betting Targets

When reviewing every handicapping angle that I consider most valuable for racing at Nashville, the two names that continuously stood out were Denny Hamlin and Ross Chastain. Both drivers have been excellent on the concrete surfaces, have shown excellent performance trends at Nashville, and have also been climbing the performance metrics in recent weeks at the intermediate layouts. While it seems inconceivable Melon Man could go back to back, I believe there is a realistic possibility that Chastain could be on the verge of a breakout scenario. With that being said, I would still put Denny Hamlin into the #1 spot from a handicappers perspective if I had to rank the top two drivers!

Behind the duo of Chastain/Hamlin, I would consider Tyler Reddick as the driver that deserves serious respect. Reddick is a driver that may not stand out in the historical metrics. However, Reddick finished 3rd in this race last year and has finished in the top 3 at the end of 4 stages in the last two races. Based on the speed in practice, I would consider Reddick among those deserving dark horse consideration. The problem with Reddick is that he appears slightly overvalued from an odds perspective. Instead, I believe Chase Briscoe and Chase Elliott are among the better “value” options in both futures and H2H formats. Briscoe has been bet down to sub 15-1 following his pole win. However, I think this weekend is Briscoe’s best chance for a breakout performance out of all the prior strong qualifying efforts this season.

If we were to look even deeper into the field, Chris Buescher, Ryan Preece, and Michael McDowell are among the names that appear to have higher ceilings than current betting odds suggest. All 3 drivers may be worthy of consideration in prop bet formats that produce low-risk/high-yield scenarios.

Draftkings 2025 Cracker Barrel 400 Optimal Fantasy Lineup

2025 Cracker Barrel 400 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Denny Hamlin +500 (1.5 units)
Ross Chastain +650 (1 unit)
Chase Briscoe +1600 (.5 unit)
Chase Elliott +2200 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Chase Elliott -115 over Brad Keselowski (3 units)
Cody Ware -115 over JJ Yeley (2 units)
Tyler Reddick -110 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)

Two Team Parlay

Tyler Reddick +225 wins Group 2 (Blaney, Byron, Briscoe)
Chase Elliott +240 wins Group 3 (Logano, Keselowski, Hocevar)
Risking .5 unit to win: +500