2025 Coca Cola 600 Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday May 25th, 2025. 6:30PM (EST)
Where: Charlotte Motor Speedway
TV: Prime

The 2025 edition of the “Greatest Day in Motorsports” has arrived! On Sunday, race fans will have the luxury of viewing some of the most prestigious crown jewel events, across different disciplines of racing, including the Monaco Grand Prix in Formula 1, to the Indy 500 in IndyCar, and capping off the evening with the 66th running of the Coca Cola 600 in NASCAR’s Cup Series. As we prepare for the most exciting day in racing, we shift our focus to Sunday’s main event in the Coca Cola 600 in an attempt to find the best betting opportunities for 600 miles of racing at Charlotte Motor Speedway!

Of course the major storyline for the weekend includes Kyle Larson who will be attempting the Indy 500 and Coca Cola 600 double for the 2nd straight year. Larson had a solid run in the Indy 500 last year but his overall result was ruined following a late race penalty. While Larson’s 2nd attempt in the Indy 500 will be intriguing, I don’t believe bettors should lose focus on the fact that Larson has been the best driver in the Cup Series at the 1.5 mile venues. Larson has posted an incredible 122 average driver rating at the last 5 races at 1.5 mile tracks which includes victories at Homestead and Kansas already this season. Needless to say, Larson should have an excellent shot at winning the 600 despite the fact he will start from the rear of the field due to his Indy 500 obligations.

With that being said, we also know that performance trends are not always the most reliable for the Coca Cola 600. NASCAR’s longest race of the season opens the door for extra mistakes, extra strategy, and everything else in between. As a result, we have seen some somewhat surprising winners in this race throughout history. When you consider how close the parity is within the Cup Series in the Next Gen Car, I am not ruling out the possibility of another surprise name in victory lane especially if pit strategy comes into play late in tomorrow night’s closing laps. For those reasons, no driver is off the table in terms of betting consideration and it is our job to determine which drivers warrant betting action!

Charlotte (Oval) – Cup Notes

• Brad Keselowski is the only two-time winner at Charlotte among active drivers.
• Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Austin Dillon, and Christopher Bell are all former winners at Charlotte.
• Tyler Reddick has the best average finish (7.8) over the last 10 races at Charlotte. *Reddick has just 6 starts in that time period.
• Denny Hamlin has earned a top 5 finish in 6 of the last 10 races at Charlotte.
• Kyle Busch has finished 6th or better in 6 of the last 8 races at Charlotte.
• William Byron has finished 4th or better in 3 of the last 4 races at Charlotte.
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr has finished 7th in 2 of the last 3 races at Charlotte.
• Christopher Bell (107.6), William Byron (105.4), and Tyler Reddick (104.8) are the only drivers that have posted a +100 average driver rating in 3 races at Charlotte in the Next Gen Car.
• Ryan Blaney has led the most laps (165) at Charlotte in the Next Gen Car.
• Joey Logano’s best finish at Charlotte is 14th in the last 4 races.
• Ryan Preece has finished 22nd or worse in 6 of the last 7 races at Charlotte.
• Toyota drivers have won 6 of the last 10 Coca Cola 600s.
• There have been at least 7 cautions in 10 of the last 11 races at Charlotte.
• The eventual race winner has started from the pole position in 2 of the last 4 races at Charlotte.

Dynamic Averages

For the cookie-cutter 1.5 mile venues, I believe that our dynamic averages are just as important, if not more important, than track history when it comes to varying handicapping angles. The reason for this is that most of the 1.5 mile venues are very similar which gives us more reason to trust the trends. Additionally in the Next Gen Car, these 1.5 mile speedways are essentially horsepower tracks where the best aero setups and raw speed emerges. Therefore, I believe our dynamic averages hold considerable weight in the overall handicapping equation this week.

As you will notice, Kyle Larson has been phenomenal over the last 5 races with a lucrative 122 average driver rating. Behind Larson, we have some more usual suspects with Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, and Alex Bowman all garnering 99+ average driver ratings. Bowman is perhaps the biggest surprise to that group but the #48 has been very fast this season and still flying somewhat under the radar. Other noteworthy observations include impressive performance results from the likes of Josh Berry and Ryan Preece. Meanwhile, I would note disappointing performance trends from the likes of Denny Hamin (80.7), Kyle Busch (57.2), and Ty Gibbs (55.2).

Practice Observations

In the lone practice on Saturday, Carson Hocevar paced the field with a fast lap of 180.445mph. Unfortunately, Hocevar spun during qualifying and will start at the rear of the field. While Hocevar paced the field in terms of single-lap speed, Ross Chastain was among the drivers that appeared to show strong “race” speed in practice. Chastain posted the best 10, 15, and 20 consecutive lap averages. Unfortunately like Hocevar, Chastain also ran into trouble by blowing a tire towards the end of practice which will force the #1 into a backup machine.

Along with Chastain, Ty Gibbs, Tyler Reddick, and Brad Keselowski were some additional names that looked really good on the lap averages. Keselowski had some of the best speed during the end of practice and appears to be trending in the right direction. Additionally, I would note that the Hendrick Motorsports cars all fired off somewhat slow but showed really solid race speed. Therefore, perhaps that is by design. Perhaps the biggest disappointments in practice surrounded the likes of the Team Penske trio and I would also add Kyle Busch into that group because Rowdy did not turn a single lap in practice due to steering issues.

Betting Targets

In terms of betting targets, I find it hard to go against Kyle Larson as the top betting option despite the challenges ahead with the fatigue factor from Indy and the fact he will have to start at the rear of the field. Larson has just been too dominant at these intermediate layouts. In the Next Gen Car, Larson has twice the amount of victories (7) and laps led (2,007) compared to the nearest competitors. For that reason, I am not removing Larson from the top. Personally, I like the chances of all the Hendrick Motorsports drivers because all of them have been very stout at the intermediate layouts. Alex Bowman appears to be one of the best options on the board in terms of “value” and is worthy of consideration in all formats.

Behind the Hendrick Motorsports brigade, Tyler Reddick and Ryan Blaney are my favorite drivers that could break through for a Coca Cola 600 victory. Unfortunately, neither driver has a ton of betting value. Based on the way Reddick has performed at Charlotte, I will side with Reddick at slightly better odds. For deeper dark horses, Ross Chastain, Bubba Wallace, and Josh Berry are the names that appear undervalued. All 3 of those drivers have performed well on the 1.5 mile surfaces and odds-makers have over-corrected due to the slow start from each team. However, race conditions will be different on Sunday which means Saturday’s observations could be somewhat mute. For Chastain specifically, the #1 car was extremely fast in practice before the wreck. While pulling out the backup car is not ideal, the prior setup proved to have enough speed to still have confidence.

Lastly in terms of betting odds, Ryan Preece, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, and Austin Dillon are currently receiving big numbers. Those 3 drivers have much higher ceilings than current betting odds suggest and may be worth consideration in prop bet formats that have low-risk/high-reward.

Draftkings 2025 Coca Cola 600 Optimal Fantasy Lineup

2025 Coca Cola 600 Betting Picks

*More plays may be added. Check back closer to race time until “FINAL” status is displayed*

Tyler Reddick +1000 (.75 unit)
Alex Bowman +2000 (.75 unit)
Chase Elliott +2000 (.5 unit)
Ross Chastain +3000 (.5 unit)
Josh Berry +4000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Chase Elliott -120 over Joey Logano (3 units)
Ross Chastain -105 over Ty Gibbs (2 units)
Kyle Larson -145 over William Byron (2 units)
Alex Bowman +225 wins Group 3 (Briscoe, Busch, Buescher)(1 unit)
Bubba Wallace +350 wins Group 4 (Gibbs, Cindric, Chastain)(.5 unit)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +400 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Larson +340 wins Coca Cola 600
Ross Chastain +135 finishes Top 10
Risking .75 unit to win: +700